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The World Bank (WB) yesterday revealed that growth in Sri Lanka is forecast to decelerate to 3.5% this year, reflecting the scarring effects of the crisis, structural impediments to growth, and heightened global economic uncertainties.

Sri Lanka grew by 5% in 2024 in a sign of recovery following two years of negative growth.

The WB in its Global Economic Prospects publication also said Growth in SAR is expected to slow to 5.8% in 2025 as rising trade barriers weigh on exports, dampen business confidence, and weaken investment in the region. Growth is then set to increase to 6.2% a year, on average, in 2026-27, supported by improving activity in India and accelerations elsewhere, broadly consistent with the region’s potential growth estimates.

India is projected to grow at 6.3% in FY2025/26. The forecast has been downgraded by 0.4% relative to January projections, with exports dampened by weaker activity in key trade partners and rising global trade barriers. In the next two fiscal years, starting in FY2026/27, growth is expected to recover to 6.6% a year, on average, partly supported by robust services activity contributing to a pickup in exports.

Excluding India, regional growth is forecast to inch up to 3.6% in 2025 and firm to 4.4% a year in 2026-27, on average. Growth in Bangladesh is projected to increase to 4.9% in FY2025/26 and 5.7% in FY2026/27, with an expected rebound in investment, predicated on improving political stability and the successful implementation of reforms. In Pakistan, growth is expected to strengthen to 3.1% in FY2025/26 and 3.4% in FY2026/27, aided by contained inflation and declining borrowing costs. The projected strengthening of growth in Bhutan and Nepal partly reflects an expansion of hydroelectricity generation.

In Maldives, GDP is expected to expand by 5.7% this year and then moderate to 5.3% in 2026, partly reflecting global trade uncertainties and projected weakening in external demand. Growth in Afghanistan is envisaged to remain subdued at about 2.2% in FY2025/26 (late-March 2025 to late March 2026), due in part to disruptions in aid from donor countries.

The report stressed that key risks for South Asia include possible further intensification of trade barriers from major trading partners and heightened global trade policy uncertainty. Higher-than-expected global inflation and a decline in risk appetite could lead to a tightening of global financial conditions, potentially weakening currencies in the region and causing capital outflows. Other downside risks include the possibility of a surge of violence and social unrest in the region, as well as more frequent and severe natural disasters.

Tamil National People’s Front (TNPF) leader and Jaffna parliamentarian Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam has urged the Sri Lankan government to officially designate the Chemmani site in Jaffna as a mass grave and to provide immediate funding and protection for the ongoing excavation process.

Speaking in parliament last week, Ponnambalam warned that the lack of official recognition and proper funding was jeopardising the investigation and risking the loss of crucial forensic evidence.

“Honourable minister, these graves now, there have been more than three bodies found, skeletons found. So it qualifies, under international jurisdiction, qualifies for a mass grave,” Ponnambalam said.

He raised serious concerns over the current conditions at the site, noting the lack of basic security to safeguard the area.

“There is no security put there. There is no protection at all. When the court, when the people go there, they go… and then after that, it’s open to all the elements,” he said.

Ponnambalam also highlighted that existing funding allocated for the investigation was insufficient and warned that the work could soon grind to a halt.

“At the moment, the amount of money that has been allocated to the courts, in order to carry out this… for the judicial medical officer to actually do the finds, is not going to last more than twenty days,” he said. “So if at the next adjournment, if there is not enough funding, they’re going to stop the proceedings.”

Calling for urgent intervention, Ponnambalam appealed to the government to declare the site a mass grave and to explore international avenues for funding the excavation.

“So I ask you to at least declare it a mass grave site, a potential mass grave site, and if you want, we can also help you in getting some funding from outside in order to do it properly, but it must be done,” he said.

Ponnambalam also reminded parliament of the site’s grim history, recalling that it had already been identified as a potential mass grave based on testimony from the Krishanthi Kumaraswamy murder case.

“I say it with a lot of responsibility. You will be fully aware… that area was declared a mass grave site because the accused in the Krishanthi Kumaraswamy murder case said that there were over 600 people buried in that area,” he said.

“I think it is extremely important with regards to finding the truth, and I ask you to intervene in this matter and to make the relevant allocations, fund-wise. Secondly, to declare it a mass grave site so that we can raise funds maybe with the international community or any other institution that can help with the funding — and also to protect that site, to ensure that there is no tampering with the evidence.”

Ponnambalam’s intervention comes as concerns mount over the integrity of the Chemmani-Sindhubathi site, where at least 19 skeletal remains have been exhumed so far. Local families of the disappeared and international human rights organisations, including Amnesty International, have also called for the site to be protected and excavated in line with international standards.