US dollar will hit Rs 300 in near future

UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe yesterday (16), warned the US dollar would reach Rs 300 before the end of the year.

In a statement, he said the economy is deteriorating, while both the dollar deficit and the rupee deficit have not been resolved yet.

“Today, the real value of the rupee is actually Rs 250 to the dollar. Even more so, this way it can go up to Rs 275. If we do not stop there, it will reach Rs 300 before the end of the year,” he said.

The middle class is facing hardship, many are being pushed down the economic ladder. The agriculture sector has been destroyed. Small and big businessmen are unable to procure goods to do their work. This is the problem faced by the citizens. By June and July, we will have to repay foreign loans again. We have a total of US$ 6 billion to repay this year. We have not yet discussed the situation with the IMF. So we have to find the money to repay the loans in June and July. New problems are continuing to arise and this is why the banking system has been abandoned, Wickremesinghe said.

“Under Article 4 of the IMF’s Constitution, each member state is required to discuss and report on its economic situation once a year. The IMF team arrived in Sri Lanka last December. We know that the report will be presented next week. As soon as the Government receives that report they have to present it to Parliament. Once it is presented to Parliament we must hold a debate on it. The proposals put forth in the report must be discussed. From there, we will see if we can come to a consensus and agree to basic principles. It is our duty,” he said.

Speaking further, the UNP Leader said, “Our country just has a single resource and that is the younger generation which comprise Millennials and Generation Zs. We need to think about that group. They want to create a future, but they have lost faith. The Government has broken its trust.”

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Sri Lanka’s Printing Industry at the brink of collapse

Sri Lanka’s printing industry is facing difficulties to continue operations due to the shortage of raw materials.

The Book Publishers’ Association recently pointed out that the prices of paper have risen by about 150 percent amidst the prevailing shortage of US dollars to import the paper required to meet the local demand.

The rate of paper imported to Sri Lanka is now gradually declining, compared to 120,000 tonnes of paper imported to the country every month usually, a spokesperson for the National Paper Company Limited told News 1st.

The Printing Press Owners meanwhile, pointed out that there is a shortage of Ink and Toners as well in the local market.

Earlier, Sri Lankan Book Publishers warned that the book publishing process for school Exercise Books has dropped by 70%, mainly due to banks not opening Letters of Credit to import paper.

Book Publishers told News 1st that they are finding it difficult to source paper to keep up with the demand.

Due to the present economic situation, their production process which operated all week is limited to two to three days, local publishers said.

They are requesting the authorities to immediately intervene and solve the issue and warned that if this situation continues there will be a serious shortage of exercise books when schools re-open for the second term.

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Sri Lanka’s Usable Foreign Reserves at Critical Level

The near-term external debt servicing capacity of Sri Lanka has reached a really challenging position. Usable foreign reserves of the country have fallen to a miniscule and hence critical level of a mere US$ 100 million, sources at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) told Ceylon FT yesterday.

“There is yet no clear road map for managing the near-term external financing gap of the country. Currently, the Government for the most part is dependent on expensive local banking sector short-term currency swaps to finance its day-to-day external payments,” the sources said.

Sri Lanka’s total foreign currency loans, securities, and deposit obligations this year stood at US$ 6.9 billion, of which US$ 1.8 billion were due in the first three months of the year, according to the CBSL.

Hence, they point out that, in the next few weeks, the Government will inevitably have to embark on an IMF-initiated debt and economic restructuring programme.

Accordingly, the Minister of Finance Basil Rajapaksa is likely to formally initiate discussions with the IMF in the next few months, they predicted.

The final report of the IMF routine Article IV consultation group has already been submitted to CBSL and the Ministry of Finance for their observation and review.

They said the report will be submitted to the Executive Board of the IMF on 25 February 2022. The views of the Government of Sri Lanka will be included in the submission.

It is learnt that the report highlights the risk of default of its external debt by Sri Lanka together with its growing budget deficit, rising level of inflation and multiple exchange rates (Formal and informal markets).

Given the circumstances, the Government has decided to submit the IMF Article IV Report to the Cabinet this coming Monday and seek consent on the immediate steps to be undertaken in managing the economy.

CBSL sources said no other acceptable alternative solution or major foreign exchange inflow is available to significantly reverse the rapid depletion of foreign reserves of Sri Lanka.

Sources at CBSL, however, said CBSL is still in the process of securing a US$ 500-1,000 million swap facility with the State of Qatar.

Sri Lanka is eligible for IMF support under the four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF), possibly about US$ 2 billion carrying an interest rate of less than 2 per cent.

An IMF programme will assist in restructuring the debt under the Paris Club and secure new facilities from the World Bank and enable re-entry into global capital markets.

There is a reasonable probability of achieving debt sustainability, removing import controls without facing a costly restructuring of commercial loans, economists said.

According to sources, the CBSL has requested for an extension of the US$ 400 million swap facility (under the SAARC Framework) received from the Reserve Bank of India and further deferral of the Asian Clearing Union (ACU) settlements. However, no positive response has been received so far, sources said.

A few weeks ago, the CBSL was able to defer over US$ 500 million settlements with the ACU by two months until March 2022. In recent years, the Government has taken steps to obtain several swap facilities under the SAARC Framework spanning 2019-2022. On all such occasions India has maintained that the assistance of IMF should be sought as a long-term solution.

In this backdrop, Sri Lanka has so far not been compelled to opt for an IMF-based programme due to assistance forthcoming from India on humanitarian grounds, but critics say the situation is likely to change in the future. The Government is also considering reaching more ‘bridging finance’ options through India, Japan, China and the Middle Eastern Nations to finance the day-to-day external obligations.

In this context, Japanese authorities have, however, insisted that for such a loan agreement it would be imperative for Sri Lanka to access an IMF programme.

Fitch Ratings estimates CBSL will need to arrange for some US$ 2.4 billion to help State-owned and private-sector firms in the country honour their debt obligations for 2022, over and above the US$ 4.5 billion central government debt.

The country also needs around US$ 20 billion for essential imports such as fuel, food and intermediate goods for exports.

As at end January 2022, the official gross foreign reserves of Sri Lanka was at the US$ 2.36 billion level, of which US$ 1.5 billion was derived from Chinese swap facilities that can only be used for limited import activities with China. In addition, the gross reserves included a US$ 200 million swap facility from Bangladesh and a US$ 400 million short-term swap facility with India. Sri Lanka has already deferred ACU payments worth US$ 510 million.

All major political parties struggling to remain intact

*Several MPs in the government ranks voiced their concerns and disappointment at the way they were being treated by the SLPP

*Ranawaka is already in discussions with Wickremesinghe and Welgama to form a common alliance

*Sirisena is also eying the leadership of a new alliance and is in talks with some political parties to contest a future election separately

All major political parties in Sri Lanka are presently struggling to remain intact and are likely to start splitting, with one alliance already to be named in early March signalling a split in the present government, the Daily Mirror learns.

The alliance which will be announced early March will be of 12 political parties who are presently with the government coming together as one alliance, while continuing to function with the SLPP. This includes some SLFP members and the parties led by Wimal Weerawansa, Udaya Gammanpila and Vasudeva Nanayakkara. The alliance is likely to be announced in the first week of March.

A split in the government was very evident when the co parties of the government were left out from the SLPP convention held in Anuradhapura last week. Several MPs in the government ranks voiced their concerns and disappointment at the way they were being treated by the SLPP and will now come under one separate alliance while continuing to function in the government. The second alliance under discussion is that of SJB MP Champika Ranawaka, UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and Kumar Welgama.

The Daily Mirror learns that Ranawaka has asked for the deputy leadership post from SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa who is yet to respond. Ranawaka has in the past not denied his intention to contest a future presidency and is already in discussions with Wickremesinghe and Welgama to form a common alliance. Some SLFP MPs have also agreed to join this alliance. Discussions are still underway and not finalized yet, senior political sources said.

Minority parties in the SJB have also voiced their disappointment at the SJB Leadership as they were promised the SJB would convert into a broad alliance and not function as one party, giving these MPs more recognition. However, this pledge is yet to be fulfilled by Premadasa. Some MPs representing the minority parties are now awaiting the formation of new alliances to decide their future. The third alliance in the offing is that of former president Maithripala Sirisena. Political sources said that Sirisena is also eying the leadership of a new alliance and is in talks with some political parties to contest a future election separately.

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Sri Lankan banks’ asset quality under pressure as relief measures end – Fitch Ratings

Sri Lankan banks are likely to face continued asset-quality pressure in 2022 as rising macroeconomic stresses stemming from the sovereign credit profile pose a threat to borrowers’ repayment capacity, alongside the conclusion of most relief measures in 2021, Fitch Ratings said in a release.

Fitch-rated banks’ stage 3 (impaired) loans ratio has remained broadly unchanged since 2019 (9M21: 9.4%, 2019: 9.5%), as relief measures prevented deterioration in lending quality. However, asset-quality pressure was evident in elevated loan-impairment charges and a rising share of stage 2 loans in gross loans. The share of loans under moratorium at Fitch-rated banks declined, estimated at 10% of gross loans at end-September 2021 (end-1H20: 26%).

Fitch expects Sri Lanka’s economic performance to weaken in 2022, forecasting growth to slow to 2.0%, although downside risks to forecasts remain. Stage 3 loans are likely to increase in 2022 but a sharp rise in the ratio may not be apparent due to robust loan growth. Credit costs are likely to remain high, although below 2021.

“We believe Sri Lankan banks face added asset-quality pressure from their government securities holdings, particularly those denominated in foreign currency which accounted for around 6.5% of Fitch-rated banks’ total assets at end-9M21,” Fitch Ratings said.

The report, “Sri Lankan Banks Dashboard: February 2022”, is available at www.fitchratings.com or by clicking the link in this media release.

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Sri Lanka & India to discuss Fisheries Issue

All possible steps will be taken to prevent Indian fishermen from illegal fishing in the territorial waters of Sri Lanka, by breaching the maritime boundaries, Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Fisheries emphasized on Wednesday.

Discussions in this regard will be held with the Government of India in the coming weeks, Indu Ratnayake, the Secretary to the Fisheries Ministry told News 1st.

The Indian Government has also agreed to hold discussions, according to Ratnayake.

The authorities are focusing on future steps that could be taken with regard to the vessels and fishing gear seized by security forces, she further noted.

Move to use PTA and Penal Code to restrict freedom of expression: NPP

While denouncing the use of Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and the section 120 of the penal code to restrict the right to freedom of expression, National Peoples’ Power (NPP) today urged the government to uphold democratic values, ensure fundamental rights of the people and to follow rule of law by ensuring national security in the country.

NPP said in a statement that they have observed a tendency of using the PTA,section 120 of the penal code and provisions of the ICCPR Act as tools to restrict the fundamental rights, the right to justice in law, equality and the right to equality before the law.

“We strongly condemn the use of law enforcement authorities to restrict the freedom of speech and expression ensured by the Constitution.We condemn and reject the attack on journalist Chamuditha Samarawickrame’s residence and the arrest of social activist Shehan Malaka,” the NPP said.

The NPP said they were perturbed by the attack on journalist Chamuditha’s residence which was located in a secured place with CCTV cameras and added that they believed that any gang without political blessing would not have resorted to such an attack.

The NPP said the attack on Chamuditha’s residence gives a warning that an armed force with similar powers to the government armed forces was raising its head beyond the control of the police and law enforcement agencies.

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Sabotage at Jaffna Hospital? Brand new scanner damaged again

Staff at the Jaffna Teaching Hospital said that damage found to a brand new C-arm scanner at the hospital may have been deliberate sabotage, after the machine was found broken just days after being repaired.

According to a report in the Sunday Times, this is the second time in recent months that the Rs 15 million machine has been found damaged. In a previous incident a crucial part needed for the machine to function was stolen and never located.

Sri Lankan police are now reportedly carrying out enquiries at the hospital.

Election Commission to call all parties for special meeting

The Election Commission has decided to summon all the secretaries of all political parties.

The Chairman of the Election Commission Attorney-at-Law, Nimal Punchihewa stated that the meeting will be held on the 23rd of February, 2022.

At the meeting support from the political parties is expected to be sought for the proposals put forward by the National Elections Commission to the Special Parliamentary Committee is to identify reforms related to the election laws and the electoral system.

In addition, attention will be paid to the Provincial Council and Local Government Elections.

The Chairman of the Election Commission stated that the Elections Commission is ready to hold elections at any time under the health guidelines.

It Is High Time For United Nations To Right Its Wrong In Sri Lanka By Kumarathasan Rasingam

Genocide of Tamils in Sri Lanka. UN Failed to apply R2P and protect the Massacre of 147,000 Tamils.

It is very sad that United Nations an international institution particularly was initiated to protect the civilians during the conflicts and other matters affecting the civilians failed from in its duty by ignoring the genocide in Sri Lanka. Several UN agencies, along with various other intergovernmental organizations [IGOS[ and international non governmental organizations [INGOS] based on the war zone serving the people were compelled to leave the areas of war zone on the directive of the then Sri Lankan Defence Secretary [Now the President of Sri Lanka], although very large number of Tamil civilians demonstrated pleading with the UN agencies to stay because of the protection of their presence would ensure their safety.

After several criticisms from several Human Rights Organizations, the UN Secretary General Ban-ki-Moon appointed a panel tasked with assessing the situation and submitting a Report.

The PetriePanel was tasked with assessing the contribution and effectiveness of the UN system in responding to the escalating fighting and in supporting the Secretary-General’s political engagement, identifying institutional and structural strengths and weaknesses, and providing recommendations for the UN and its Member States in dealing with similar situations.

The Petrie panel reviewed about 7,000 documents, including internal UN exchanges with the government of Sri Lanka.

The panel also met with a large group of people, including representatives of civil society and member-states, and its recommendations were built on previous reviews of UN actions in the theatres of escalated conflict.

The Secretary-General said as an immediate first step, he will organise a senior-level team to give “careful consideration” to the Report’s recommendations and advise him on the way forward. “Other actions will follow in short order,” he added.

The Petrie panel came to be appointed as the UN operation in Sri Lanka faced criticism that it had failed to protect a large number of civilian deaths in the final battle. Sri Lanka government dismissed the Petrie report as “unsubstantiated, erroneous and replete with conjecture and bias”.

Military had eliminated the rebel Tamil Tigers in 2009. Nearly three decades of ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka had left over 100,000 dead.

The war against Tamils is not an internal uprising of an ethnic or other distinct group against another exercising authority or control over the other. It was a war between two nations. Historically, the Tamil nation had a state of its own for at least four centuries before it was conquered by Portuguese colonial power in 1619 almost 114 years after they first landed in Ceylon in 1505.

This war between the Tamils and Singhalese nations was far worse than WW11 in every aspect than any other wars in regard to the scale of intensity, death, despair and destruction. The war aimed at genocide of Tamils was replete with horrendous abuse of human rights, war crimes and humanitarian laws governing conduct of wars. It is a shame, disgrace, and of course humiliation to those countries and human rights organizations committed to uphold human rights and respect international laws and conventions. As the world labeled the Tamils they are not a terrorist group or organization. They took up arms to fight against state terrorism All men are, by nature, free and equal, and have certain inherent and inalienable rights, among which may be reckoned the right to bear arms in defense of themselves. The Preamble to the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights clearly states “Whereas it is essential, if man is not to be compelled to have recourse, as a last resort, to rebellion against tyranny and oppression, that human rights should be protected by the rule of law.”

As variously stated throughout history people have the right and the duty to overthrow tyrannical governments that acts against their common interests. Taking arms in self-defense against state terrorism is definitely not terrorism. It is an inalienable right of self-defense under a democratic polity. We fought for justice and peace and above all we waged a just war against genocide of Tamils.

It is very important to note that, In the strict sense of the word, it’s not a post war situation. Instead, it is a war by other means. In addition to heavy militarisation, we can see a massive structural change that is been carried out by the Sri Lankan government through acquisition of land, Sinhala settlements, building of military cantonments, acquiring key trade and commercial locations, changing name boards to all-Sinhala names, building of Sinhala Buddhist shrines, claiming ancient Tamil Buddhist sites as Sinhala Buddhist sites and so on and so on. This phase existed prior to the armed phase before the 1980s. It has now gone up to a maximum speed after the military defeat of the armed resistance of the Tamil movement. No attempt has been made to address the root causes of the conflict. What is happening is the consolidating of the unitary state structure and the Sinhala Buddhist ideology of re-conquest with the aim of cultural homogenisation of the Tamil region. It is an irony to see how in this process of ideological and military re-conquest of the Tamil region those Sinhalese who backed the same process are being silenced by the government, let alone the other voices of dissent in the Sinhala society.