Sri Lanka and Pakistan are currently undergoing a rather unusual economic-cum-political crisis. In both, the population is facing economic distress and a foreign exchange shortage. And in both, there is a movement to oust the top leader, namely, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in Sri Lanka and Prime Minister Imran Khan in Pakistan.

But there is a critical difference between the cases. While in Sri Lanka, the anti-government movement is entirely homegrown, in Pakistan, according to Imran Khan, it is foreign-inspired.

Imran has alleged that the US had funded and facilitated the opposition’s bid to move a No-Confidence Motion (NCM) against him in the National Assembly to install a puppet regime that will do the bidding of the US. He alleged that a US State Department official Donald Lu had warned Pakistan that if the NCM did not go through, the country would suffer. Imran alleged in an interview to ARY TV that the US and the opposition had been plotting a regime change since August 2021 because of his bid to give Pakistan an independent foreign policy to serve its national interest like India’s policy serves its national interest.

Imran got the NCM rejected by the Speaker of the National Assembly on the ground that it was a foreign-inspired conspiracy. He also got the National Assembly dissolved on the grounds that it had become a nest of saboteurs manipulated by external forces inimical to Pakistan.

Imran had got President Alvi to order fresh elections to the National Assembly. But in Sri Lanka, parliament is intact, with no talk of fresh elections from any quarter. In Sri Lanka, a settlement to the political issue involving the President is being sought within the existing parliament, as no one wants fresh elections in the midst of an economic crisis marked by a shortage of essentials.

In Sri Lanka, the Opposition and the ruling party rebels want President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to step down and facilitate the election of a new President by the existing parliament itself. The main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) wants the abolition of the Executive Presidency to curb arbitrary rule. The Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA) wants the repeal of the 20 th.Amendment and the re-enactment of the repealed 19 th.Amendment to clip the wings of the all-powerful Executive President, who is held responsible for the present plight of the country because the buck stop with him.

Issues in Sri Lanka and Pakistan are different. In Sri Lanka, the questions are: (1) Should power continue to rest with Executive President Gotabaya Rajapaksa or it should be held by an interim President elected by parliament to serve the remaining period of Gotabaya Rajaaksa’s five-year tenue? (2) Should a multi-party cabinet be formed with majority support in parliament to advice President Rajapaksa?

Sri Lanka’s coffers are virtually empty and it is going around the world with a begging bowl. The country cannot afford elections now. In contrast, in Pakistan, the economic situation is not so grave and elections can be held. Pakistan’s problems are more political (with an added foreign element in it) than economic.

In Sri Lanka, the politicization of the economic problem is causing concern in some circles because it delays a solution to the economic problem affecting all citizens. The Sri Lankan parliament Speaker, Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena, on Wednesday made a fervent appeal to MPs to stop giving priority to political demands (chiefly the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa) and put their heads together to find a way to end the severe economic crisis.

“Economists have warned that there may be a severe food shortage apart from fuel, gas and electricity shortages.” He appealed to all MPs to make good use of the opportunity to debate the current crisis and jointly find solutions for issues rather than find fault or blame each other.

“If we fail at that task, it is parliamentary democracy which fails. The result could eventually cost the lives of thousands of innocent people including all of us. I have experienced two such dark ages during my life. Hence, we must take every effort in order to avert such a situation and find solutions in order to make this country a better place for all of us and our children,” the Speaker said in an emotional speech.

Indeed, as the Speaker was making his statement, doctors of government hospitals were demonstrating in Colombo demanding essential medicines.

But the Speaker’s appeal fell on deaf ears on the politicos. When Gotabaya Rajapaksa conveyed to parliament that he will not quit, the opposition began demonstrating within parliament demanding that he quit forthwith.

Throwing the political ball into the court of the opposition, the President said that he would appoint anyone as Prime Minister if he or she could prove the backing of 113 MPs (in a House of 225 including the Speaker) to form a government. He was aware that behind the opposition’s bluster it was badly divided and would find it hard to unite to form a stable government.

One of the factors favoring President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is the growing concern about the use of violence by the some protestors in parts of the island. The Bar Association of Sri Lanka (BASL), while defending the right of those protesting peacefully, has called upon authorities to take necessary action against any protesters inciting violence.

Chastened by the agitation, the Lankan government has shed its reserve about going to the IMF for a rescue package. The IMF had said that “foreign debt service needs of US$ 7 billion each year will require access to very large amounts of external financing at concessional rates and long maturities.” President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has appointed a team of eminent economic and fiscal experts as Members of the “Presidential Advisory Group on Multilateral Engagement and Debt Sustainability.” The group will help conduct negotiations with the IMF and other international funding institutions. The members of this elite group are: Dr Indrajit Coomaraswamy, Prof. Shanta Devarajan, and Dr Sharmini Coorey.

In Pakistan, the trigger for the current crisis has been Imran’s arrogant style of functioning, his intolerance, the demonization of the opposition and his antagonism to the US, a long-time benefactor of Pakistan. Imran has also been none-too-friendly with the army, the national political watchdog in Pakistan since the 1950s.

However, though the state of the economy is a secondary factor, Imran’s performance in this sphere has left much to be desired. According to a December 2021 poll, 55% of Pakistanis had declared the performance of Imran’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government as being below par. In 2019–20, Pakistan’s growth rate had dropped to minus 0.4%. It is now rising at 2 to 4%, but this is still well below the 7% or more needed to stay ahead of its population growth.

Pakistan’s continuing poor fiscal situation is due to its inability to increase revenues. High inflation is a major worry. From January 2020 to March 2022, India’s food inflation had been about 7% whereas Pakistan’s was around 23%, pointed out Uzair Younus, director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Washington-based Atlantic Council.

Writing in Wall Street Journal, Saeed Shah says: “Pakistan’s economy has for decades limped from one crisis to another, unable to sustain the growth needed for its young and fast-expanding population. Gross domestic product per capita of less than US$ 1,200 a year is more than a third lower than India’s, making Pakistan the 183 rd. poorest country globally, World Bank data show.”

Foreign direct investment has dropped. Pakistan is on its 22nd bailout under IMF supervision since first turning to the lender in 1958, Saeed Shah says. Pakistan also remains on the “Grey List” of the Financial Action Task Force that monitors illegal money movements and terrorist financing.

The Delegation of the European Union to Sri Lanka noting that freedom of assembly and freedom of expression are pillars of any democratic society, when they remain peaceful, encouraged all parties to continue acting with restraint and find constructive and democratic ways out of the crisis.

The Delegation of the European Union issued a joint statement together with the diplomatic missions of EU Member States Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Romania and with the diplomatic missions of Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom regarding the current situation in the island nation.

Following is the full statement:

Freedom of assembly and freedom of expression are pillars of any democratic society, when they remain peaceful. We therefore encourage all parties to continue acting with restraint. We consider the end of the state of emergency as a positive step.

We call on all parties to explore constructive and democratic ways out of the current crisis that has taken its toll on the Sri Lankan people.

We stress the extreme urgency of the situation, which requires the authorities to start in-depth discussions with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the reforms needed to bring the Sri Lankan economy back to a sustainable path.

Sri Lanka’s opposition is eying an impeachment of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa as calls intensify for his resignation, political sources said as efforts are also underway to collect signatures for a no-confidence motion.

The main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya which supported a finance bill without calling for a vote this week, had warned that a no-confidence vote would be brought.

Earlier about 10 parties linked to sacked ministers Wimal Weerawansa and Udaya Gammapila had said they will pull the plug on the government at a time chosen by them.

Efforts are under way to garner the support of legislators who are said they were ‘independent’ last week, according to political sources.

Sri Lanka is operating with four ministers and President Rajapaksa is expected to announce a new cabinet which will bring more ministers.

Sri Lanka’s parliament attempted to impeach the late President Ranasinghe Premadasa in the 1990s but the effort failed after then speaker M H Mohammed switched sides.

Impeaching a President is an exhausting process under Sri Lanka’s constitution.

The current speaker is also a from the President Rajapaksa’s party.

Article 38

2)

(a) Any Member of Parliament may, by a writing addressed to the Speaker, give notice of a resolution alleging that the President is permanently incapable of discharging the functions of his office by reason of mental or physical infirmity or that the President has been guilty of-

(i) intentional violation of the Constitution,

(ii) treason,

(iii) bribery,

(iv) misconduct or corruption involving the abuse of the powers of his office, or

(v) any offence under any law, involving moral turpitude, and setting out full particulars of the allegation or allegations made and seeking an inquiry and report thereon by the Supreme Court.

(b) No notice of such resolution shall be entertained by the Speaker or placed on the Order Paper of Parliament unless it complies with the provisions of sub-paragraph (a) and –

(i) such notice of resolution is signed by not less than two-thirds of the whole number of Members of Parliament, or

(ii) such notice of resolution is signed by not less than one-half of the whole number of Members of Parliament, and the Speaker is satisfied that such allegation or allegations merit inquiry and report by the Supreme Court.

(c) Where such resolution is passed by not less than two-thirds of the whole number of Members (including those not present) voting in its favour, the allegation or allegations contained in such resolution shall be referred by the Speaker to the Supreme Court for inquiry and report.

(d) The Supreme Court shall, after due inquiry at which the President shall have the right to appear and to be heard, in person or by an attorney-at-law, make a report of its determination to Parliament together with the reasons therefor.

(e) Where the Supreme Court reports to Parliament that in its opinion the President is permanently incapable of discharging the functions of his office by reason of mental or physical infirmity or that the President has been guilty of any of the other allegations contained in such resolution, as the case may be, Parliament may by a resolution passed by not less than two-thirds of the whole number of Members (including those not present) voting in its favour remove the President from office.

The United States in its latest travel advisory on Wednesday has cautioned its citizens from travelling to Sri Lanka amid the ongoing economic crisis and unrest in the country.

Pointing to the fuel and medicine shortages in Sri Lanka, the US’ new ‘Level 3’ advisory also mentioned terror threats as a concern.

“Reconsider travel to Sri Lanka due to COVID-19 and fuel and medicine shortages. Exercise increased caution in Sri Lanka due to terrorism,” said the US State Department said in its latest travel advisory.

“There have recently been protests over the economic situation and queues at gas stations, grocery stores and some pharmacies. Protests have occurred throughout the country and have mostly been peaceful. In some instances, police have used water cannons and tear gas to disperse protesters,” the advisory said.

Mentioning the power outages in the nation, the advisory further said, “There have also been daily planned power outages across the island, as well as some unplanned power outages, as fuel for backup generators is increasingly scarce. Public transportation in some instances has been limited or curtailed. Travellers should monitor local media for updates on the ongoing situation.”

Meanwhile, the US has also issued a level-3 travel health notice for Sri Lanka due to Covid-19. The ‘level-3’ indicated a high level of coronavirus cases in the country. “Your risk of contracting COVID-19 and developing severe symptoms may be lower if you are fully vaccinated with an FDA-authorised vaccine. Before planning any international travel, please review the CDC’s specific recommendations for vaccinated and unvaccinated travellers,” said the travel advisory.

Meanwhile the US Embassy in Colombo said the travel advisory was updated to reflect the impact of Sri Lanka’s economic and political challenges on travelers.

In a twitter message, it said the overall level of the advisory remains at ‘Level 3’ and that the terrorism language has stayed consistent since April 2019.

“Updated travel advisory for Americans in Sri Lanka to reflect the impact of SL’s economic & political challenges on travelers. Please note the overall level of the advisory remains at Level 3 & the terrorism language has stayed consistent since April 2019,” the US Embassy tweeted.

People are continuing their protests against the incumbent government over the shortage of food and fuel and power cuts. Protesters are also demanding that the president and his entire government resign.

Updated travel advisory for Americans in Sri Lanka to reflect the impact of SL’s economic & political challenges on travelers. Please note the overall level of the advisory remains at Level 3 & the terrorism language has stayed consistent since April 2019. https://t.co/c1flM652fO

— U.S. Embassy Colombo (@USEmbSL) April 7, 2022

The National People’s Power (NPP) MP Anura Kumara Dissanayake said today that they were not prepared to accept any proposal such as an interim government unless President Gotabaya Rajapaksa resigns from being the President.

He told Parliament that any proposal that are being made while President Rajapaksa in power, would not alleviate people’s violent protests, as one of the key demands of the people was President to quit from the post.

He said none of the proposals made by the President was effective in resolving the burning issues of the people and added that people strongly demand that the President should “go home”.

“Resigning from the Cabinet or forming an interim government were not the solutions to the current issues,” he said.

MP Dissanayake said they were ready to make proposals or accept any mechanism proposed to resolve the crisis on condition that the President should resign from the post in the first place.

Sri Lanka’s State Ministry of Production, Supply, and Regulation of Pharmaceuticals said that government hospitals are running short of 40 different medicines due to the present crisis.

Secretary to the State Minister Dr. Saman Ratnayake told News 1st that stocks of 60 different medicines will only last for another week, and less than a month.

However, facilities have been arranged for pharmaceutical importers to import medicines under the Indian Credit Line.

In addition, The Bank of Ceylon and People’s Bank have decided to open Letters of Credit valued at USD 7 Million each.

However, health professionals have warned that the entire health system would collapse within the next week if the crisis is not resolved.

Dr. Senal Fernando, the Secretary of the Government Medical Officer’s Association speaking to reporters said the GMOA has decided to declare a health emergency across Sri Lanka.

Following the mass resignation of the Sri Lankan cabinet, there is no proper authority to be held responsible for the crisis, said one local doctor who took part in a protest outside of the capital, Colombo.

According to local doctors, medication required for the daily clinics, diabetes patients, as well as heart patients is in short supply, while medical equipment is also scarce.

Sri Lanka imports most of its pharmaceuticals from Asian nations such as India, China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.

Due to the foreign exchange crisis, the importation of pharmaceuticals is in limbo, as the country needs to source an additional USD 20 Million to avert a major crisis