Fitch Ratings raises RED FLAG over Sri Lankan Banks’ Exposure to Sovereign Risk

Fitch Ratings believes Sri Lanka’s largest banks are the most susceptible to heightened sovereign risk due to their greater exposure to foreign-currency-denominated government securities and, in some cases, weak capital positions.

This exposure for Fitchrated banks stood at around 6.4% of total assets and 78% of total equity at end-2020. For every 10% reduction in the value of foreign-currency-denominated government securities, we calculate that the large banks’ common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratios would have dropped by 18-219bp as at end-2020.

Some smaller banks may appear to be relatively unscathed by such exposure, but they would not be immune to any spillover effects of sovereign stress.

Overall, Fitch-rated Sri Lankan banks had about one-third of their combined assets exposed to the central government as at end2020, increasing the risk of heightened sovereign stress causing significant deterioration in their financial condition.

Fitch expects bank ratings to remain constrained by, and closely linked to, its assessment of the Sri Lanka sovereign, which has a ‘CCC’ Long-Term Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR), due to the strong correlation between the sovereign and bank credit profiles.

This stems from the banks’ significant direct exposure to the sovereign, largely via their government-security holdings as well as to the wider domestic economy and local financial markets through their Sri Lanka-centric operations.

Under Fitch Rating’s Bank Rating Criteria, a bank can only be rated above the sovereign if we assess that it has the capacity to continue to service its obligations in the event of a sovereign default, and there would likely be no imposition of restrictions on the banks’ ability to service their obligations by the sovereign in the event of a sovereign default.

As such, Fitch do not rate any Sri Lankan banks above the sovereign’s Local-Currency IDR and have a ‘ccc’/negative score on the banks’ operating environment.

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EU monitoring mission here in Sept

The European Union (EU) is planning to send a monitoring mission in September to Sri Lanka in the wake of the resolution against Sri Lanka in the EU Parliament seeking a withdrawal of GSP+ concessions owing to alleged human rights abuses.

“We were informed that a delegation will visit Sri Lanka in September subject to COVID-19 conditions,” said veteran trade union leader Palitha Athukorala.

This was confirmed by the EU Office in Colombo. In a statement to the Business Times it said a (zoom) meeting was organised by the Dutch Embassy with representatives of trade unions and other organisations in the garment sector. The EU was one of the participants.

“Under GSP+ every two years an EU monitoring mission is visiting the country. The last mission took place in September 2019. We hope to be able to send the next mission in autumn 2021,” it said adding that the EU Delegation is in regular contact with various stakeholders, also in relation to GSP+. “We have a close interaction with the government, but also civil society, human rights groups, trade unions, employers’ organisations and other stakeholders,” the statement said

Mr. Athukorala along with FTZ trade union leader Anton Marcus, and officials of the Women Centre and Dabindu Collective (two FTZ trade unions representing female workers) were part of the discussion on Wednesday. Twenty representatives from EU countries, the US, Australia and Japan took part in the discussion with the intention of seeking the views of trade unions on the proposed withdrawal of trade concessions.

The resolution seeking the withdrawal of GSP+ concessions pushed through the European Parliament on June 10 will severely hurt apparel exports.

Mr. Athukorala told the Business Times that women’s groups explained that they were subject to harassment by the police in pursuing trade union activities. Health centres set up based on COVID-19 guidelines in FTZ factories were a farce as they had more employer representatives than workers, it was noted.

“We explained that we didn’t want GSP+ to be withdrawn as it would be lead to job losses,” Mr. Athukorala said adding that he and Mr. Marcus had agreed to write to Foreign Minister Dinesh Gunawardena on the need to ensure GSP+ concessions are not removed. This week the government said it planned to amend the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) while releasing a number of Tamil prisoners detained under the PTA, both acts meant to placate the EU.

Major rift in Govt. due to possible entry by Basil?

A major rift has erupted within the government following reports that Basil Rajapaksa will take oaths as an MP early next month and will thereafter receive a ministerial portfolio, the Daily Mirror learns.

Some government coalition party members have objected to the move, citing Rajapaksa’s dual citizenship as a reason, and have voiced their disapproval to the President and Prime Minister.

Sources said reports had surfaced that Rajapaksa was likely to be appointed as the Minister of Economic Development, a portfolio newly created for him and the one he held in the previous Rajapaksa government.

Although initially there were reports that he would also take over as the Finance Minister, this has been shot down as this portfolio is likely to be retained by Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. However, certain institutions which come under the purview of the Finance Ministry are likely to be transferred under the new portfolio. While Basil was set to receive his Cabinet portfolio early next month after he takes oath as an MP, the move may be delayed due to the strong objections raised by some of the party members.

Rajapaksa returned back to Sri Lanka last week after being in the US for a little over a month. He is currently the Head of the Economic Revival and Poverty Eradication Presidential Task Force.

Sri Lanka lifts ban on passenger arrivals from several gulf countries

The Chairman of the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) says that the ban on airline passengers with a recent travel history to Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman during the last 14 days has been lifted subject to several conditions.

The CAA had announced on 28th June 2021, the imposing of restrictions on air passengers from the aforementioned 6 Middle Eastern countries stating that those with a travel history to these countries within the last 14 days will not be allowed to disembark in Sri Lanka.

However, the CAA says it has now revoked that decision subject to certain conditions.

It stated that in accordance with instructions received from the Ministry of Health and the National Operations Centre for Prevention of COVID-19 Outbreak (NOCPCO) the passenger restriction on the following 6 Countries (Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait) is revoked with immediate effect on the following conditions:

• All arriving passengers must have a negative PCR Test obtained within 96 hours prior to departure. Airline to ensure this before boarding passengers.
• Antigen tests cannot be accepted as a pre-departure test for boarding.
• PCR test must be presented from a Government approved hospital/laboratory in the respective Country with a QR Code/Bar Code.
• Airlines must satisfy themselves with the authenticity of the test reports presented by the passengers.
• Passengers are permitted to arrive only for Hotel Quarantine or through the Sri Lanka Tourism Bio Bubble Route.

The above conditions will apply until further notice, the CAA chairman said.

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Ministry of Defence signs $50 Mn deal to upgrade SLAF’s Kfirs

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) stated today (30) that it recently signed a contract, worth $50 million, with Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Defence to upgrade Kfir aircraft for the nation’s Air Force, Isreal Defense reported.

The deal includes replacing the aircraft’s basic avionics with advanced 4+ generation fighter aircraft avionics in order to one day integrate advanced radar, sensors, communication systems, and new helmets. The upgrade process will also include transfer of related knowledge and skills to Sri Lankan Air Force personnel. The upgrades will be completed in cooperation with the Air Force and in its facilities, IAI said.

Yossi Melamed , IAI Executive VP and GM of IAI’s Aviation Group, said, “I am proud that IAI’s Kfir has been chosen by customers around the world, including in the United States and as the Columbian Air Force’s primary fighter jet. I am grateful to Sri Lanka’s Air Force for choosing to renew their Kfir selection and continue using the Kfir as their Multi-Role Combat Aircraft. I believe this deal is an early step in preparing for future upgrades to the advanced model KNG (Kfir New Generation).”

The Kfir, when first developed, was a game changer on the battlefield with its ability to carry thousands of tons of ammunition and reach enemy targets in a precise manner, IAI stated.

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Chinese company seeks Archaeology Department approval

The company involved in the Chinese Joint Venture (JV) to clean the country’s irrigation tanks has sought permission from the Archaeology Department on 28 June, following allegations that the first phase of the project at the Tissa/Tissamaharama Wewa was done without prior permission from the Department.

The controversial project, which was launched earlier this month, is currently on hold following concerns raised by the Archaeology Department.

The Morning learnt that a letter requesting permission has been received by the Department’s offices in Galle and that the Department is currently reviewing the request. It is learnt that permission may be given for the project, to proceed subject to a number of strict conditions.

At the time the venture was launched, the Irrigation Minister Chamal Rajapaksa told the media that when the water from the Uma Oya project is released, it is his Ministry’s responsibility to ensure it does not reach the sea and therefore the clean-up of dredged sediment at the Tissa Wewa is needed.

Government sources told The Morning that the clean-up at the Tissa Wewa using special machinery is done as a pilot project, to test the success of this particular clean-up technique.

According to sources, the cleaning of sediment in the Tissa Wewa is needed and the JV with the Chinese company involves a clean-up of an area of approximately 100 acres.

“If that kind of clean up is done using normal techniques, it would require the Tank to be drained, which would affect the farming cycles. Therefore, in order to combat this issue, the company would be employing special machinery to clean the Tank without draining it,” the sources added.

It is also learnt that the pilot project was due to be launched in Kurunegala, although it was later moved to the Tissa Wewa in February of this year.

Meanwhile, another controversy surrounding the project was that a worker wearing clothes allegedly similar to that of the Chinese military was seen near the Tissa Wewa. Responding to these concerns at the Cabinet media briefing held yesterday (29), Cabinet Spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella said that following an investigation by the Army and the Criminal Investigations Department (CID), they have clearly stated that this alleged piece of clothing can be worn in the country. “We are not silent or cowardly on the matter. There is a set of laws in the country that can be accessed if the Antiquities Ordinance has been violated. The Army and the CID have done a complete investigation into the matter about the uniform. There are workers of security companies in these work sites. As far as we know, they are not from the Chinese Army,” said Rambukwella.

Tissa Wewa, part of the country’s famous irrigation system, is one of the oldest reservoirs built during the 3rd Century Before Christ by King Devanampiyatissa.

Defence Secretary questions Chinese Embassy on camouflage uniforms

Defence Secretary General Kamal Gunaratne (Retd) has questioned the Chinese Embassy in Sri Lanka over camouflage uniforms worn by Chinese employees of a private company in Tissamaharama.

The opposition had recently questioned the presence of foreigners in Tissamaharama wearing clothing similar to the Chinese military uniform.

Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) MP Manusha Nanayakkara raised the concerns in Parliament saying workers attached to a project in Tissamaharama were seen wearing clothing similar to the Chinese military uniform.

The Defence Ministry said that the Chinese Embassy had informed Defence Secretary General Kamal Gunaratne (Retd), that the said employees are not members of the People’s Liberation Army.

The Embassy has told the Defence Secretary that the clothes are part of the Chinese company’s uniform.

However, the Defence Secretary has told the Chinese Embassy to educate the respective employer to refrain its employees from wearing the controversial military style camouflage uniforms in future.

The Ministry of Defence has also informed the local company to ensure the staff do not wear such uniforms.

“Defence Secretary Gen. Kamal Gunaratne (Retd) has also directed the Southern Province Senior Deputy Inspector General of Police to thwart any further attempt of such nature,” the Defence Ministry said.

Meanwhile, Cabinet co-spokesman Keheliya Rambukwella had said today that the Criminal Investigations Department (CID) and the Military intelligence had investigated the claims and found that the allegations were baseless.

He said that some groups had raised concerns over the matter with vested interests.

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113 MPs write to the President requesting Basil in parliament

113 parliamentarians of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) have written to the President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to appoint the party’s National Organizer and his younger brother Basil Rajapaksa as a SLPP National List MP and offer him a suitable Cabinet Minister post.

The letter signed by 113 cabinet ministers, state ministers and parliamentarians of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna was handed over to the President recently, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna MP Jagath Kumara told Dinamina.

MP Jagath Kumara said he told the President that Basil Rajapaksa, as a person who made a great contribution to the formation of the SLPP, continuing without representation in parliament is an obstacle to future development.

Mr. Jagath Kumara said that the President had responded positively to the request made by his group and that there had not been as much opposition from Basil Rajapaksa’s side as before and hoped that it would be fulfilled soon.

Sri Lanka’s COVID-19 death toll exceeds 3,000

The Director-General of Health Services has confirmed 45 more COVID-19 related fatalities that have occurred yesterday (June 28).

The new development has pushed the official death toll due to the virus in Sri Lanka to 3,030.

According to the data released by the Department of Government Information, the new victims confirmed today include 24 females and 21 males.

One of them is aged below 30 years, twelve victims are between 30-59 years and the remaining 32 are aged 60 and above.

Sri Lankan Govt. prints Rs.23 Bn worth of fresh cash

The Central Bank injected Rs.23 billion worth liquidity last Friday, taking the printed money stock in excess of Rs.900 billion as the monetary authority is now forced to provide liquidity to the cash-strapped government after the latter closed down the economy for a month.

Last week Central Bank’s holdings of government securities or the printed money stock had risen by Rs.34.51 billion since the country went into a near total lockdown on May 21 through June 18, 2021, bringing the total outstanding printed money stock to Rs.896.24 billion.

However, on June 25 alone, the Central Bank provided fresh liquidity worth Rs.23 billion to the government bringing the total holdings to Rs.919.22 billion.

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The Central Bank was scaling back its holdings from Rs.904.02 billion in early April to Rs.856.65 billion by early June but it soon had to reverse course as the government was losing money from tax income while bills are adding up for payment including the State sector salaries and for virus containing efforts.

Meanwhile, the government last week sought parliamentary approval for an additional Rs.200 billion spending to assist the economy gutted by the restrictions, which accounts for an additional 1.2 percent of the Gross Domestic Product. The new spending will expand the budget deficit from the projected 9.5 percent to 10.7 percent in 2021.

Unlike in the developed markets, Sri Lanka cannot print money excessively, while keeping its economy shuttered, which could result in inflation and Balance of Payment deficits.

Even the United States ran 13-year high inflation in May when it registered 5.0 percent increase in consumer prices as a result of excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus continuing for over a year.

Sri Lanka also saw inflation spiking to 6.1 percent in May with the food inflation running at over 10.0 percent.