It was nearly two centuries ago that a British statesman uttered these words about politics. It has since reverberated in the dovecotes of political power although its complete relevance now stands to question.
Henry John Temple, the Third Viscount Palmerston, in the 19th century, declared that in politics, “there are no permanent enemies, and no permanent friends, only permanent interests.”
The axiom seems to have outlived itself. Reflecting a contemporary political scenario that goes beyond applies to the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Their onetime political enemies have become its nowadays friends. Those who became friends by contesting the August 5, 2020, parliamentary elections under the SLPP label are now splintered and become enemies. These have changed what seemed once their permanent interests.
For the ruling coalition, the metamorphosis came in July 2022. Violent protests, mostly in the streets of Colombo, prompted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee Sri Lanka and later resign. His resignation letter, which ended his controversial and authoritarian governance, came from Singapore. Another sample of how that was carried out came in a judgment from the Supreme Court, last Wednesday. It was over the pardon he gave to one of his then confidants, Duminda Silva, and later ensconced him in a government job. The country’s highest judicial institution ruled that Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s “decision is arbitrary, irrational and has been made for the reasons best known to the former President who appears to have not even made any written decision and has not given any reason thereto. Further, no reason can be discerned from any document submitted by Hon. Attorney General as forming part of the record pertaining to the impugned grant of pardon.”
That Parliament voted Ranil Wickremesinghe as President to complete the remaining term of Gotabaya Rajapaksa in July 2022 is now history. Wickremesinghe’s priority was to pull the country out of the bankruptcy his predecessor had plunged. To any discerning observer, it became abundantly clear, he had to veer away from the economic policies of the SLPP government. A string of unpopular decisions came pitting President Wickremesinghe against the public. Electricity rates went up and over half a million consumers have so far asked for disconnection of their power supply. The reason—they just cannot pay the higher tariffs. Amidst other price increases came a spiral in Value Added Tax (VAT) which encompassed a broad range of items. The latest is the proposed introduction of a property tax anytime now. This is on the advice of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
It was in November last year that Mahinda Rajapaksa, former President, and leader of the SLPP, first struck a discordant note. He blamed the previous United National Party (UNP) government for opting for a “high tax regime” after 2015 thus forcing the decline precipitously ending up at 0.2 below zero by 2019. He pointed out that “due to bad economic management, the period from 2015 to 2019 saw an increase in taxes while at the same time experiencing a precipitous increase in foreign debt. When I was voted out in January 2015, the outstanding International Sovereign Bond debt was only US$ 5,000 million, he pointed out. So, he made out that the cause of the economic crisis lay in the hands of a UNP regime.
A significant paragraph in that statement, which perhaps did not draw much attention then, said: “The SLPP which I lead is part of the government. However, the present Head of the Government and Head of State is the leader of a different political party with different policies. In a situation where this country was faced with complete anarchy, Parliament elected a President to serve the remainder of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s term. The new President successfully restored law and order in the country. He is now directing government policy as the Executive President. At this moment, the primary duty of the SLPP is to ensure a stable government until the next national elections.”
Rajapaksa has acknowledged that President Wickremesinghe is the leader of a different political party “with different policies.” Even more importantly, his SLPP parliamentarians have endorsed and helped enforce such policies. Those remarks highlight that the SLPP policies were quite different from those pursued by the President. Those assertions set the mood in the party. It is against this backdrop that the SLPP held its special convention on December 15, last year, at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium in what was viewed as the soft launch of its presidential campaign. More so when it had already held its fifth annual convention in November 2021.
This event saw the emergence of millionaire businessman and casino owner Dhammika Perera. Interestingly, at a news conference, SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam told reporters that his party had agreed on Dhammika Perera and four others as presidential candidates. One of them would be finally selected, he declared. He, however, did not name the other three. Amidst this, Perera also figured in a media campaign promoting his role as a key player in developing computer technology. The idea was to find more jobs for the youth. He had also initiated a dialogue with politicians of the ruling party to secure its support and to launch a countrywide campaign. This week, he flew to London interrupting all this.
Social media sites backing him reported yesterday that he was taking a “respite” from the Presidential election campaign.
Significant enough, there appears to be a change of position in the SLPP. Notwithstanding what General Secretary Kariyawasam said at a news conference, a new party line was spelled out by Mahinda Rajapaksa, the leader of the SLPP. He declared this week that they had not decided on a candidate. It was made at a ceremony at the Grand Monarch Hotel on January 14. A more important assertion he made was that the SLPP had also not decided whether it would field a candidate. The sting is in this remark. Firstly, in making these remarks, Rajapaksa has made clear party secretary Kariyawasam’s assertions which included the consideration of Dhammika Perera, and three others are no longer valid. In other words, a formal decision, officially spelt out as the party position at a news conference, has been changed. One is not wrong in saying that Rajapaksa has contradicted the claim by his own party’s General Secretary in spelling out a new SLPP position. It goes without saying that SLPP policies will not stand in the way.
How did this shift come about, significantly ahead of the upcoming presidential polls? At least two different sources familiar with the developments confirm that there has been a policy shift on the part of the SLPP. “As things stand now,” one source said, “the party is inclined not to field a presidential candidate.” The idea is to help enhance Wickremesinghe’s vote bank. An unexpected benefit to the SLPP because of the move is keeping the remaining parliamentarians, after some broke away, within the party’s fold. In addition, this will also preclude them from joining the New Alliance that has been formed by Gampaha district parliamentarian Nimal Lanza. Earlier, they were known to have 29 parliamentarians mostly from the SLPP.
The test of strength will come when they hold their first rally in Gampaha on January 27. Former minister Anura Priyadarshana Yapa is the leader of the New Alliance. As previously reported, Lanza has been working from the Presidential Secretariat to garner support for his alliance and has been engaged in wooing those from the SLPP, their trade unions and other bodies.
In such circumstances, why can’t the SLPP support Ranil Wickremesinghe’s candidature openly? The answer came from another source. “Here again, the fear is the prospects of the party being divided in the middle. There are members and followers who do not favour the party supporting the candidature of a leader of another political party who had remained opposed to the SLPP,” said this source. “This way,” the source added, “the likelihood of a greater majority of the SLPPers supporting Wickremesinghe is high.” Nevertheless, a bigger question on whether any of the SLPP leaders will join Wickremesinghe’s campaign, even during the final stages, remains unanswered. He has already won some leverage by not contesting on the UNP ticket and coming forward as the candidate of a “grand alliance.” A name, however, must be found. Another reason for remaining “neutral,” at least officially, is to obviate opposition criticism that Wickremesinghe has been protecting the interests of the Rajapaksas since he became President. Open support to his election campaign, it is argued, will give the opposition parties a handle to claim that the accusations have now been proved.
It is too early for one to discern the final line up of candidates or the different alliances that are being formed. It is known that the main opposition Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) candidate will be Sajith Premadasa, the Leader of the Opposition. He told a series of meetings in the North Central Province that his grouping is ready to face any election. “The President is going around saying he is preparing for the presidential election and is trying to get the views of the public. The UNP and the SLPP are already confused about an independent candidate,” he claimed. Premadasa’s supporters in Parliament have increased with a foursome – G.L. Peiris, Dilan Perera, Nalaka Godahewa and Wasantha Yapa joining the SJB.
There were moments of embarrassment for those in the Freedom People’s Congress (FPC) led by Dullas Allahappereuma. Peiris had sent his car to the Third Lane, Nawala office of the FPC asking for the return of all his belongings. A thoughtful member of the administrative staff formulated a list and ensured that the driver acknowledged the receipt of all items. Among them was a smart TV, a toolset, cables, a TV monitor, a sound system with a sub-woofer, a microphone with a stand and a variety of cables.
With more than seven months to go for the scheduled presidential elections, social media is full of surveys from different organisations, some lesser known. Most of these have been placing the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power in the lead followed by the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). The veracity of some of these surveys remains in doubt and in the case of some others the statistics are not backed up. However, the surveys have influenced the propaganda lines of President Wickremesinghe’s campaign. The soft election campaign by those who are setting up a grand alliance is being directed at the NPP.
With the presidential election in mind, President Wickremesinghe is expected to spell out the measures he adopted to resuscitate a bankrupt economy when he ceremonially opens Parliament on February 7. There was an error in last week’s report in these columns that the prorogation will take place on January 26. It will take place on January 24. The last date for the sitting of Parliament in January has been determined by the Parliamentary Business Committee chaired by Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena. The Committee met on January 12 and decided that since January 25 is a Poya Day and public holiday, there would be no sittings of Parliament on January 26 or the next day as expected. Thus, the last day of sitting for January was determined as January 24.