Moody’s raises Sri Lanka’s rating after debt overhaul approval

Credit ratings agency Moody’s on Monday raised Sri Lanka’s long-term foreign currency issuer rating to ‘Caa1’ from ‘Ca’ with a stable outlook, after the country’s creditors approved a $12.55 billion debt overhaul last week.

Sri Lanka’s credit profile reflects the reduction in external vulnerability and government liquidity risk, and prospects for fiscal and debt sustainability, Moody’s said in a report.

“Sri Lanka’s credit fundamentals have improved over the past two years… external vulnerability and government liquidity risk have both declined from elevated levels,” Moody’s said.

The island nation had defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time in May 2022 due to its high debt burden and dwindling foreign exchange reserves.

Its bondholders last week signed off on the government’s proposal to restructure its international bonds as the island nation recovers from its worst financial crisis in decades.

The rating action marked the conclusion of a review Moody’s initiated last month, in which it had indicated a possible upgrade.

Ratings agency Fitch on Friday raised Sri Lanka’s long-term foreign-currency default rating to ‘CCC+’ from ‘restricted default’.

Source: Reuters

Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy hospital ship ‘Peace Ark’ arrives in Colombo

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy hospital ship ‘Peace Ark’ arrived in Colombo on a formal visit yesterday. (21)

The visiting ship was welcomed by the Sri Lanka Navy in compliance with naval traditions.

‘Peace Ark’ is a 178m long hospital ship, crewed by 310 personnel under the command of Captain Deng Qiang.

As part of the official visit, the hospital ship ‘Peace Ark,’ in collaboration with the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Sri Lanka will organize medical treatments and clinics onboard.

‘Peace Ark’ will depart the island on 28th December.

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Ambassador of Norway calls on PM Harini

Prime Minister, Dr. Harini Amarasuriya, welcomed the Ambassador of Norway to Sri Lanka, May-Elin Stener, during a courtesy call at the Prime Minister’s Office.

The discussion on Friday focused on fostering a collaborative partnership between the two nations, with key topics including poverty alleviation, social protection measures, tax reforms, renewable energy, and employment generation, the Prime Minister’s Office stated.

Dr. Amarasuriya emphasized the importance of transforming Sri Lanka’s education system and highlighted ongoing efforts to digitize governance for improved public service delivery, the statement added.

The meeting was attended by senior officials from both the Norwegian Embassy and the Sri Lankan government, including Mr. Pradeep Saputhanthri, Secretary to the Prime Minister, Ms. Sagarika Bogahawatta, Additional Secretary to the Prime Minister, and Ms. Shobini Gunasekera, Director General of the Europe and North America Division at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

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AHRC calls on President Dissanayake to prioritize urgent legal reforms

The Asian Human Rights Commission (AHRC) has urged Sri Lanka’s President Anura Kumara Dissanayake to take immediate action to implement critical legal reforms aimed at restoring the rule of law in Sri Lanka.

In a written appeal, Basil Fernando, the Director of Policy and Programs at the AHRC, emphasized the pressing need to address key deficiencies in the country’s legal and judicial systems. The AHRC identified three crucial areas requiring immediate reform.

The organization stressed the importance of ensuring the daily hearing of serious criminal cases in the High Courts to expedite the judicial process and reduce delays in justice delivery. It also called for the introduction of comprehensive legislation to combat bribery and corruption, a measure deemed essential to restore public confidence in governance and accountability.

Additionally, the AHRC highlighted the necessity of reforming the Attorney General’s Department to enhance its independence, efficiency, and transparency.

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The sagging Indian interest in 13 A -MOHAMED AYUB

It is hardly surprising to note that India is weaning off the 13th Amendment in the light of the vast transition the world has undergone since the days India aggressively supported even the secessionist outfits in Sri Lanka

Is the 13th Amendment to the Constitution – the most controversial and lengthy modification introduced to the country’s basic law – losing its significance?

The answer seems to be in the affirmative with India, the real architect of that Amendment gradually lessening its weight in its own statements, the possibility of it dying a natural death or becoming a dead letter is apparently high. Also, with the provincial councils, the practical outcome of the 13th Amendment having been almost forgotten even by the Tamil leaders, its significance is no doubt diminishing.

At none of the several meetings President Anura Kumara Dissanayake held with Indian leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Minister Dr S. Jaishankar during his two-day visit to New Delhi early this week, the matter was specifically transpired, according to media reports. However, only Prime Minister Modi during his joint press briefing with Sri Lanka President on December 16 made a passing reference to the 13th Amendment, but indirectly.

He stated “We hope that the Sri Lankan government shall fulfil the aspirations of the Tamil people. And that they shall fulfil their commitment towards fully implementing the Constitution of Sri Lanka and conducting the Provincial Council Elections.” It is purely a matter for the Sri Lankan government to implement the country’s Constitution fully or partially, but it is obvious here that Indian Premier by implication was referring to the implementation of 13th Amendment which was the direct outcome of the Indo-Lanka Accord of 1987. Never in the past 37 years since the signing of this Accord did the Indian leaders refrain from directly referring to this Amendment.

Sri Lankan Tamil newspapers were concerned about the 13th Amendment not being referred to in the joint statement issued at the end of Sri Lankan President’s India tour. However, it has to be reminded that a similar statement issued during the former President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s visit to New Delhi in July last year was also silent on the matter. It was the Indian Prime Minister who mentioned it in his speech during the joint press briefing with Wickremesinghe, as he did this time. Yet, then he specifically referred to it, not indirectly.

This development has to be taken note of with an incident occurred seven years ago. In February, 2017, leader of the Eelam Peoples’ Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF) Suresh Premachandran told the then Indian Foreign Secretary Dr. S. Jaishankar during a visit to Sri Lanka by the latter that India has a moral responsibility to prevail upon the Sri Lankan government to re-merge the North and East as it is a part of the Indo-Sri Lanka Accord. The Indian diplomat had then replied that “much water has flowed under the bridge since 1987 and it will be better for all concerned to make use of the various windows of opportunity which have opened up recently with the change of regime in Colombo and secure the rights of the Tamils.”

The Indo-Lanka Accord provided for the merger of the Northern and Eastern Provinces, though temporarily until a referendum is held in the multi-ethnic Eastern Province and for the institutions of provincial councils through the 13th Amendment. Now, India seems to have dropped the merger issue for good and prefers not refer to the 13th Amendment specifically.

It is hardly surprising to note that India is weaning off the 13th Amendment in the light of the vast transition the world has undergone since the days India aggressively supported even the secessionist outfits in Sri Lanka. During the Cold War India sided with the Soviet Bloc whereas the Sri Lanka’s government headed by President J.R. Jayewardene stood with the Western countries led by the US. India then felt it was being encircled by the West, as another two countries, Pakistan and Bangladesh too took a pro-Western stance.

Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi took advantage of the first opportunity she got to penalize Sri Lanka for its pro- West stance, when a large number of Tamil refugees from Sri Lanka started to arrive on the shores of Tamil Nadu subsequent to the 1983 anti-Tamil pogrom and with the escalation of fighting between the Sri Lankan armed forces and the Tamil separatist groups. She supplied those armed groups with arms and training while pressing the Sri Lankan leaders to devolve powers to Tamil dominated provinces. Thus, the India-Lanka Accord came into being in 1987.

However, with the end of the Cold War in early nineties, India’s economic interests have superseded its strategic interests in respect of Sri Lanka and its concerns on the Sri Lankan Tamils gradually began to take a back seat. Simply, it is the India’s own interests and not the rights or plights of Sri Lankan Tamils that have dictated it to take both stances on Sri Lanka during and after the Cold War.

Sri Lankan Tamil leaders have been heavily relying on India’s support to win their demands since early eighties when India intervened in the Sri Lanka’s ethnic affairs. With India’s indifference towards their demands or its obsession with its own economic and strategic interests in the region, they have been compelled to find solutions to their problems, as Dr. Jaishankar advised seven years ago to make use of “the various windows of opportunity which have opened up recently.”

The NPP government has assured that the 13th Amendment would not be scrapped until a solution agreeable to all concerned is found. Responding to this assurance, leaders of the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA), leader Mano Ganesan had observed that the bird in the hand is worth the one flying in the sky (the original proverb says the bird in the hand worth the two in the bush). In other words, he prefers provincial councils be activated first. And the government has also assured that the provincial council elections would be held next year.
A new solution to the ethnic problem could only be found through a Constitutional amendment or a totally new Constitution which the NPP government says would be introduced in three years. Hence, the only option left with the Tamil leaders is to be satisfied with the existing “window of opportunity” and make maximum use of the “bird in the hand,” without playing politics with it, as the leaders of the last Northern Provincial Council did.

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Sri Lanka walks a tightrope between India and China – DW

Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake met India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Droupadi Murmu in New Delhi on Monday to bolster ties between the neighboring countries.

Dissanayake said India’s economic support is critical in realizing his vision of a prosperous Sri Lanka, as the island nation emerges from the worst economic crisis in its independent history.

“Our conversations focused on strengthening Indo-Sri Lanka economic cooperation, enhancing investment opportunities, fostering regional security, and advancing key sectors such as tourism and energy,” Dissanayake, who is popularly known as AKD, said in a statement.

“These engagements reaffirm the commitment to deepening the partnership between our two nations.”

New Delhi’s support amid geopolitical tensions

Modi announced on Monday that India plans to supply liquefied natural gas to Sri Lanka’s power plants and will work on connecting the power grids of the two countries.

Many analysts expect AKD’s government to come under pressure amid growing geopolitical competition, especially as India and China vie for influence in the region.

Srikanth Kondapalli, an expert on China studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, said that Dissanayake’s move to prioritize India as a strategic partner is influenced by their shared geographical proximity. India has long shared close political, cultural, economic and military ties to Sri Lanka.

“Unlike Nepal’s Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli, who broke with the usual practice of making India the first destination in the neighborhood, AKD’s strategy aligns with India’s interests in promoting stability and democratic governance,” Kondapalli told DW.

Sri Lanka’s strategic shift

Earlier this month, Nepal’s Oli, who was appointed prime minister in July, went on a four-day trip to Beijing to expand cooperation on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive infrastructure plan that aims to smooth Chinese trade links with dozens of countries.

“This is also informed [by] the much-needed assistance of nearly $4 billion (€3.8 billion) that India extended after Sri Lanka’s meltdown in 2022 and the failure of China to bail out Colombo,” he added, referring to the country’s 2022 economic crisis.

Kondapalli noted that China’s aggressive maritime activities and alleged predatory fishing operations in the Indian Ocean have raised concerns for Sri Lanka.

“The loss of Hambantota port for 99 years and extra-constitutional provisions on Colombo’s port project to China has sapped Sri Lanka,” said Kondapalli.

The port of Hambantota has been a Chinese-run facility since 2017, when Sri Lanka and China signed a 99-year lease after Colombo struggled to repay debt from the port’s construction.

“Dissanayake is righting the wrongs done by his predecessors who provided unprecedented space for China and is resetting relations with India,” Kondapalli added.

Relations with China under scrutiny

As Sri Lanka comes to terms with its economic realities and seeks to redefine its relationship with its influential neighbors, it faces critical decisions that will shape its economic future and sovereignty.

Dissanayake’s visit to New Delhi is crucial for setting the tone of the island nation’s foreign policy, especially considering his upcoming trip to China planned for early 2025.

“Sri Lanka has indeed decided to balance India and China and Dissanayake’s government will be keen to show some gains while also appearing even-handed,” Anil Wadhwa, a former Indian diplomat, told DW.

“The Chinese military presence will, however, continue to grow with the ships equipped with radars and sonography equipment now paying regular visits to Sri Lankan ports,” he added.

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British High Commissioner Commends Sri Lanka’s Economic Progress

British High Commissioner to Sri Lanka, Andrew Patrick has praised the government’s swift progress in achieving economic stabilization since assuming office.

He noted that the country is heading in the right economic direction.

Speaking at a meeting with Deputy Minister of Finance and Planning Dr. Harshana Suriyapperuma at the Ministry of Finance, the High Commissioner discussed the current economic situation and future plans.

Dr. Suriyapperuma provided detailed clarifications on Sri Lanka’s economic plans.

The High Commissioner expressed readiness to enhance exports of Sri Lankan goods, particularly organic agricultural produce, garments, and natural beauty products, to the UK market.

He also announced that a delegation of British business leaders would visit Sri Lanka early next year to explore trade opportunities.

Furthermore, the High Commissioner commended Sri Lanka’s efforts in restructuring international sovereign bonds and its effective implementation of the IMF program.

Fitch upgrades Sri Lanka out of default despite holdout Hamilton Reserve

Fitch Ratings said it was upgrading Sri Lanka’s foreign currency rating out of restricted default (RD) status, to CCC+ after 98 percent of bondholders accepted an offer to restructure defaulted bonds with new securities issued on December 20.

“The upgrade of the Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR (issuer default rating) reflects Fitch’s assessment that Sri Lanka has normalised relations with a majority of creditors, after the announcement of final results of the invitation to exchange the outstanding stock of international sovereign bonds…” the rating agency said.

“One bond series with non-aggregated collective action clauses did not meet the required 75 percent level.

“Without this bond series, the acceptance results imply a restructuring of 96% of total commercial external debt.”

The series that did not meet the threshold was a 2022 bond where Hamilton Reserve, a holdout investor, held about 25 percent of the outstanding.

The investor went to court using an older collective action clause, where there was no requirement to hold a 25 percent stake in all issued bonds.

Sri Lanka has made strong progress under an International Monetary Fund program under broadly deflationary policy operated by the central bank which started showing up in the balance of payments from September 2022.

However, analysts have warned that inflationary policy is starting to target mid-corridor (single policy rates) which is likely to have the same consequences as earlier when rates were cut with printed money.

Sri Lanka’s government debt to ratio would fall to about 90 percent of GDP by 2028. Interest to revenue cover would be 42 percent, which was above the 16 percent of ‘CCC’ rated countries. It would still be a fall from 67 percent before default.

Countries that have inconsistent monetary regimes (soft-pegs or flexible exchange rate where the operating framework results in high inflation and repeated currency cum stabilization crises) tend to have high nominal interest rates, analysts have warned.

The UK, which probably had the greatest currency since the Roman Solidus, saw interest rates on long bonds rise close to 20 percent in the late 1970s after repeated ‘Sterling crises’ and IMF programs under aggressive Sri Lanka style macro-economic policy, with severe anchor-conflicts, analysts say.

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SL requests further stay of proceedings in US; Hamilton Reserve Bank wary

The Government has requested the US District Court for the Southern District of New York to extend its stay of proceedings in the case filed by Hamilton Reserve Bank (HRB) over its $ 250 million in principal and interest in International Sovereign Bonds (ISBs).

In its request, the Government pledged to provide an update by 6 January 2025, by which time it anticipates confirming the successful conclusion of its restructuring efforts.

According to the Defendant, the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, this extension is crucial for finalising the process and ensuring the country’s economic recovery, a core goal under the IMF-supported program. However, HRB, the Plaintiff in the ongoing litigation, has filed a partial opposition, adding complexity to the matter.

Moving a reply Memorandum of Law in support of the Defendant’s motion for further stay of proceedings, the Attorneys for the Defendant confirmed to the court that Sri Lanka’s restructuring initiative has made significant progress. Accordingly, the Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation launched on 25 November, has garnered strong participation, with 73% of holders of the 2022 Bonds agreeing to the exchange. Other Bond series have seen participation rates exceeding 95%. Despite this progress, HRB, which holds 25% of the 2022 Bonds, has refused to participate in the exchange, maintaining its legal claims.

In its Memorandum, the Government emphasises that continued court stays have been instrumental in facilitating negotiations with creditors in the past. These stays have allowed Sri Lanka to align creditor terms with IMF requirements and ensure equitable treatment across stakeholder groups. Agreements reached with bilateral creditors and private bondholders earlier in 2024 laid the groundwork for the current debt exchange.

HRB, however, argues that the rationale for a stay no longer applies after the debt exchange’s 12 December 2024, deadline. According to HRB’s partial opposition, all Bondholders, including HRB, have already decided whether to participate, rendering the extension unnecessary. HRB asserts that post-deadline steps — such as announcing results, issuing new bonds, and making payments — are procedural and unrelated to the litigation. HRB has requested that the court deny any stay extending beyond 12 December.

HRB’s position also highlights a critical distinction: the restructuring process does not directly impact HRB’s holdings of the 2022 Bonds. The bank has confirmed its refusal to participate in the exchange, and Sri Lanka has acknowledged that the terms of the 2022 Bonds will remain unchanged. This confirmation strengthens HRB’s argument that the litigation should proceed without further delay, as the restructuring does not affect its claim for $ 250 million in principal and interest.

Sri Lanka’s legal team counters that a stay is still necessary to ensure the restructuring process reaches its conclusion without disruption. They warn that premature legal action could undermine the broader restructuring effort, potentially deterring other creditors or creating legal uncertainty. The Government argues that any delays in resolving HRB’s claims will not harm the bank, as accrued interest will compensate for the wait.

Domestically, the successful completion of the restructuring is vital for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. The process aims to stabilise public finances, create fiscal space for development, and fulfil commitments to both domestic and international stakeholders. However, the Government’s management of the crisis has faced criticism. Allegations of inefficiency and corruption in state institutions have raised concerns about the administration’s ability to deliver on its promises and implement necessary reforms.

Analysts opined the Court’s decision on the requested stay will have significant implications for Sri Lanka and the global financial community. A ruling in Sri Lanka’s favour would allow the Government to complete the restructuring process and set a precedent for handling similar cases. Conversely, a denial could accelerate HRB’s litigation, potentially complicating the recovery process.

The proposed update on 6 January 2025, is expected to confirm the restructuring’s completion. This milestone would mark a turning point for Sri Lanka, providing the foundation for economic stability and growth. The outcome of this case will likely influence how courts and policymakers address future sovereign debt disputes, balancing the interests of individual creditors with the broader goals of economic recovery, analyst added.

President Announces Timeline for Postponed Elections

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake announced that the Local Government Elections will be held next year, ahead of the Sinhala and Tamil New Year.

He further said that the Provincial Council Elections will also take place within the coming year. The President made these remarks during his visit to Kandy today (20).

He made this statement during a visit to Kandy today. The President also stated that the Provincial Council elections will also be held within the next year.

Further, the President mentioned that nominations for the Local Government elections were called in March 2023.

“However, many of the parties and alliances that existed at that time no longer exist today, with some alliances having been dissolved. As a result, those nominations were cancelled and fresh nominations will be called for and the necessary arrangements will be made to hold the Local Government elections before the end of the year,” the President added.