Foundations of Sri Lanka’s economic revival have to be built on export industries

In the last 30 years, Sri Lanka has lived through a debilitating civil war, a tsunami, the Easter Sunday bomb attacks and a two-year long pandemic. As a nation, we have battled through them all, emerging bruised but not broken. We are resilient, and yet again, we will overcome the current economic crisis as one nation united. But we need support, and we need the rest of the world to continue to believe in the resolve of the Sri Lankan people.

Through myriad crises, companies have built an apparel industry that has become a reliable sourcing destination for some of the largest global brands. They have reaffirmed confidence in Sri Lanka’s delivery of both product and quality and always looked to Sri Lanka as a safe and reliable pair of hands. The country has developed an enviable reputation for ethical and sustainable manufacturing.

Now, the country is in the throes of a self-inflicted macroeconomic crisis. But what complicates matters this time are events occurring beyond Sri Lankan shores and not within our control.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exacerbated a trade and tariff war between the US and China. Supply chain breakdowns across the world and galloping global inflation added to the explosive mix. Emerging unscathed from this latest crisis is going to be hard and perhaps a long drawn-out process.

The return of some political stability offers much needed hope. However, sustaining that stability and political consensus around a common set of goals will involve deft maneuvering on the Government’s part. All political parties seem to be aware of the risks of upsetting that fragile stability for narrow gains.

Despite fuel shortages, unreliable electricity supply and the precarious state of external finances, exporters adapted to change quickly and continued to deliver product to their customers. Apparel, which accounts for 40 per cent of total exports, and at least half of all merchandise exports, has not halted production even for a day. In the first four months of 2022, export records have been set, and the industry has continued to earn much-needed foreign exchange.

Those export earnings have been useful to pay for critical imports, combined with lines of credit from trading partners such as India and China as the Government negotiates a restructuring of its external debt of almost US$57 billion (mostly in dollar-denominated bonds, public and private). Sri Lanka is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other lending agencies for a resolution to the crisis and progress is being made.

Prior to the pandemic, the apparel industry had set a target of $8 billion in exports by 2025; the Joint Apparel Associations Forum (JAAF), the industry’s apex body etched a vision and strategy for 2030 estimating double-digit growth. Companies cemented their buyer relationships and infused further investment. The Government set up the Eravur Fabric Park, to onshore even greater value addition.

Apparel has been and will continue to be the foundational structure of Sri Lanka’s manufacturing capacity. The commitment is such that two companies just announced the infusion of new investment, adding manufacturing capacity to the current milieu, despite the unstable macro environment.

So, what can be done now? Different stakeholders have different responsibilities.

Firstly, the Government needs to get its fiscal house in order. The Prime Minister has announced tax reforms, but he, his Cabinet and Parliament will have to stay the course. Some taxes have been raised, and more will be. But the need is for structural reform, aligned in response to significant global economic changes. White elephant infrastructure projects, for example, should be removed from the country’s future plans.

Secondly, export and manufacturing industries must be prioritised; it is the foreign exchange earned from these industries that pay for the country’s essential imports, primarily fuel and pharmaceuticals. The operating environment for export-oriented industries must be strengthened, with the supply of energy and import of essential raw material continuing uninterrupted.

Thirdly, citizens should be made aware of the actual cost of living. Subsidies have been very generous in the past, but these are unsustainable and are the reason for Sri Lanka’s public finances being in a mess. In the short run, the prices of all essential commodities increasing, including energy and food, will be unavoidable. Belts will have to be tightened.

Fourthly, the Government should establish a clear five or six-step economic revival plan, developed with the assistance of the IMF and other agencies. That plan should be committed to by, and implemented with, Parliamentary oversight, holding the entire political system accountable for meeting the goals set out.

The Government – not just the Executive, but Parliament as well – should communicate this plan to both Sri Lankans and the global community, explaining the reasons and cost implications of the steps taken and the benefits that accrue by taking a disciplined and responsible approach to economic management.

Experience over three tumultuous decades has demonstrated that buyers, customers and lenders are as invested in Sri Lanka’s apparel industry and economic revival as Sri Lankans are. This is where faith in the apparel industry’s resilience is well seen.

It’s not going to be easy; things will get worse before they get better. Being resilient is about staying committed to proposed reforms and actions, and not losing sight of set goals.

Sri Lanka has fought many a battle and emerged triumphant. We can do it once more – and win.

Written by Wilhelm Elias

Posted in Uncategorized

Non-essential petrol sales halted for two weeks in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has suspended sales of fuel for non-essential vehicles as it faces its worst economic crisis in decades.

For the next two weeks, only buses, trains and vehicles used for medical services and transporting food will be allowed to fill up with fuel.

Schools in urban areas have shut, while officials have told the country’s 22 million residents to work from home.

The South Asian nation is in talks over a bailout deal as it struggles to pay for imports such as fuel and food.

Sri Lanka is the first country to take the drastic step in halting sales of fuel to ordinary people “since the 1970s oil crisis, when fuel was rationed in the US and Europe and speed limits introduced to reduce demand”, Nathan Piper, head of oil and gas research at Investec, told the BBC.

He said the ban underlined the steep rise in oil pricing and limited foreign exchange reserves in Sri Lanka.

Many of the island’s residents don’t know how they will cope without fuel. There have been long queues at filling stations across Sri Lanka for months.

Chinthaka Kumara, a 29-year-old taxi driver in Colombo, thought the ban would “create more problems for people”.

“I’m a daily wage earner. I’ve been in this queue for three days and I don’t know when we will get petrol,” he told BBC Sinhala.

Drivers have been asked to go home, with tokens distributed aimed at rationing scarce fuel stocks. Some kept queuing, but others couldn’t.

“I was in a queue for two days. I got a token – number 11 – but I don’t know when I will get fuel,” S Wijetunga, a 52-year-old private sector executive, told the BBC.

“I need to go to the office now, so I have no option but to leave my vehicle here and go in a three-wheeler.”

Kenat, a motorised rickshaw driver in the Colombo suburb of Kotahena, said people like him were being “destroyed”.

“Our family used to have three meals a day. Now we eat only twice a day. If this continues, it will come down to one meal,” he told BBC Tamil.

‘Severe economic crisis’
With an economy hit hard by the pandemic, rising energy prices and populist tax cuts, Sri Lanka lacks enough foreign currency to pay for imports of essential goods.

Acute shortages of fuel, food and medicines have helped to push the cost of living to record highs in the country, where many people rely on motor vehicles for their livelihoods.

On Monday, the government said it would ban private vehicles from buying petrol and diesel until 10 July.

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Cabinet spokesperson Bandula Gunewardena said Sri Lanka had “never faced such a severe economic crisis in its history”.

The cash-strapped country has also sent officials to the major energy producers Russia and Qatar in a bid to secure cheap oil supplies.

Over the weekend, officials said the country had only 9,000 tonnes of diesel and 6,000 tonnes of petrol to fuel essential services in the coming days.

It has been estimated that the stocks would last for less than a week under regular demand.

“We are doing everything we can to get new stocks, but we don’t know when that will be,” power and energy minister Kanchana Wijesekera told reporters on Sunday.

In May, the country defaulted on its debts with international lenders for the first time in its history. That followed weeks of protests against President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s government. His brother Mahinda quit as prime minister, but the president is still under pressure to resign.

“The government seems to take no action at all,” Kannan, another driver seeking fuel in the capital, told BBC Tamil.

“They are asking us to be patient. They say they don’t have dollars. But I ask the government – who is responsible for this?”

He suggested “educated youngsters” should lead the country instead.

Last week, an International Monetary Fund team arrived in Sri Lanka for talks over a $3bn (£2.4bn) bailout deal.

The government is also seeking assistance from India and China to import essential items. New Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said earlier this month the country needed at least $5bn over the next six months to pay for essential goods such as food, fuel and fertiliser.

In recent weeks, ministers also called on farmers to grow more rice and gave government officials an extra day off a week to grow food, amid fears of shortages.

The government blames the crisis on the Covid pandemic, which affected Sri Lanka’s tourist trade – one of its biggest foreign currency earners.

But many experts say mismanagement is the main cause of the economic collapse.

Sri Lanka’s foreign currency reserves dwindled to almost nothing after years during which it imported much more than it exported and racked up huge debts with China on controversial infrastructure projects.

When Sri Lanka’s foreign currency shortages became a serious problem in early 2021, the government tried to limit the outflow by banning imports of chemical fertiliser, telling farmers to use locally sourced organic fertilisers instead.

This led to widespread crop failure. Sri Lanka had to supplement its food stocks from abroad, which made its foreign currency shortage even worse.

Source: BBC News

Applications invited from Sri Lankans for Indian scholarships

The High Commission of India, Colombo, announces scholarships for Sri Lankan nationals under the Ayush Scholarship Scheme of the Government of India for undergraduate, postgraduate and doctoral courses in Ayurveda, Yoga, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy for the academic year 2022-23.

The Government of India selects meritorious Sri Lankan nationals for the award of these scholarships in consultation with the Ministry of Education (MoE), Government of Sri Lanka.

These scholarships cover full tuition fees and a monthly sustenance allowance for the entire duration of the course. In addition, accommodation allowance, healthcare facilities and an annual grant are also provided.

Details of these scholarships are available on the MoE website: www.mohe.gov.lk. Last date for uploading the application on the ICCR A2A portal (www.a2ascholarships.iccr.gov.in ) is July 15, 2022. Please contact High Commission of India, Colombo (E-mail- eduwing.colombo@mea.gov.in /0112421605, 0112422788 ext-605) for any additional information.

Source: NewsInAsia

Defence Ministry green lights cargo ferry service between KKS and TN

Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Defence has approved the launch of a cargo ferry service between Kankesanturai (KKS) and Pondichery in Tamil Nadu.

According to Minister of Fisheries Douglas Devananda, the ferry service is to commence from July 01, 2022.

The minister had previously said that once launched, Indian goods can directly reach Sri Lanka’s Northern Province through the ferry service, which would be operated between KKS and Karaikal Port in Pondichery or Puducheri as it is also called.

Minister Devananda had further said the ferry service will allow the import of required fuel, kerosene, diesel and other essential commodities including fertilisers, palm oil and pharmaceuticals at reasonable prices.

Meanwhile it is reported that arrangements are being made to start flights between Palali International Airport and Trichy and Chennai from July 01, as well.

Top US officials visiting Sri Lanka meet PM for talks

The visiting high-level delegation of officials representing the US State Department and the Treasury Department met with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, a short while ago, for a discussion, the PM’s Office said.

The delegation including officials from the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the U.S. Department of State had arrived in Sri Lanka yesterday morning for a three-day visit.

Members of the delegation include Deputy Assistant Secretary of Treasury for Asia Robert Kaproth and Ambassador Kelly Keiderling, who is also the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia.

The visitors are expected to meet with a wide range of political representatives, economists, and international organizations in Sri Lanka from June 26 – 29, the U.S. Embassy in Colombo says.

In all their meetings, they will explore the most effective ways for the U.S. to support Sri Lankans in need, Sri Lankans working to resolve the current economic crisis, and Sri Lankans planning for a sustainable and inclusive economy for the future, the U.S. Embassy said further.

Over the past two weeks, the U.S. has announced $120 million in new financing for Sri Lankan small and medium-sized businesses, a $27 million contribution to Sri Lanka’s dairy industry and $5.75 million in humanitarian assistance to help those hit hardest by the economic crisis.

The United States also committed $6 million in new grants to provide livelihood assistance to vulnerable populations, and technical assistance on financial reform that will help stabilize the economy.

In the coming months, the U.S. will continue to support Sri Lankans as they revive their economy, combat food insecurity, and promote public health and education, the statement said.

The United States said it also strongly supports Sri Lanka’s decision to seek assistance from the International Monetary Fund, which can provide the most durable resolution to the present crisis.

Source: Adaderana

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High-Level US delegation meets President to discuss economic crisis

The High-level US Delegation that visited Sri Lanka to explore ways that the US can support the island nation’s economy called on President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in Colombo on Monday (27) morning.

Ambassador Kelly Keiderling, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Department of State, and Robert Kaproth, Deputy Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury accompanied by Ambassador to Sri Lanka Julie J Chung met the President to discuss Sri Lanka’s economic crisis.

“It’s a challenging time, but we continue to deliver assistance & long-term partnership to help SL achieve a prosperous, secure & democratic future,” tweeted the Ambassador.

Source: News 1st

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Two elderly Sri Lankan refugees fall unconscious on arrival in Dhanushkodi; rescue efforts last hours

An elderly man and an elderly woman who fled the economic crisis-hit Sri Lanka using an illegal ferry to India were found unconscious on the seashore in Dhanushkodi.
Around 7am, local fishermen spotted the duo on the shore near Kothandaramar temple. The Coastal Security Group (Marine) police in Rameswaram were informed. The police managed to reach the spot around 8am and found 81-year-old Sivan from Mannar and 71-year-old Parameswari from Trincomalee unconscious. Since, the only available road to Dhanushkodi was five km away, they decided to seek the help of the Indian Coast Guard to send a hovercraft for the rescue.
Since the access road was more than 5km away from the spot, Coastal Security Group personnel had to protect the heavily dehydrated senior citizens with whatever they could till the Coast Guard’s hovercraft arrived at the spot.

It took three hours for the hovercraft to arrive since the base is situated in the Mandapam facing South sea while the spot where these Sri Lankans landed lies in North sea. Other formalities like providing requisition letter were also involved. As the health condition of the two elderly people started deteriorating due to scorching coastal heat, the marine police had to provide them shade using the clothes they brought in their bags.

Once the hovercraft arrived, the Sri Lankans were first taken to Rameswaram Government Hospital for first aid. They were later shifted to Ramanathapuram Government Hospital for further treatment.

Marine police inspector Kanagaraj said a ferryman from Sri Lanka dropped the two at chest level water and they waded in cold sea water to reach the shore. By the time they reached shore, the duo was spent and the day’s temperature took a heavy toll on them.

“After hours of treatment, the man has gained consciousness but remains in a shock while the woman is yet to gain her consciousness. Once they recover, we would be able to get more information,” he said.

With the economic condition in the neighbouring country in doldrums, many Sri Lankans are fleeing the country and arriving as refugees taking an illegal ferry. The number has crossed 90. The refugees are hosted at Mandapam refugee camp.

Source: The Times of India

Posted in Uncategorized
Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Ranil Wickremesinghe, Dr. Nandalal Weerasinghe, K.M. Mahinda Siriwardana

Child’s guide to debt restructuring: Not a cakewalk but a task entailing hard work

Written by W. A. Wijewardena

“After 2015, there was a new innovative clause under which if 75% of the bondholders agree, they could go ahead with a debt restructuring plan even if the balance 25% disagrees. Hence, the bond maturing on 25 July 2022, issued prior to 2015, will be subject to this impediment. As such, the restructuring could get delayed if the New York Federal Court delivers its judgement against Sri Lanka. If it happens, it will also delay Sri Lanka’s planned bailout from IMF. That is why I said that it is advisable for Sri Lanka to resolve that issue amicably and quickly”

Aseni, whiz kid in economics, has been intrigued by three pieces of hot news that had hit the media last week. One was the arrival of the legal and financial advisors hired by the Government to initiate work on planned restructuring of some selected foreign debt contracted by the Government. The second was fielding of a staff-team by IMF to arrive at a staff-level agreement for a bailout package for Sri Lanka which in the opinion of the Prime Minister and Finance Minister, Ranil Wickremesinghe, is saddled with a collapsed economy.

Both news items were promising. But the third was somewhat negative because one of the investors in the International Sovereign Bonds maturing on 25 July 2022, Hamilton Reserve Bank, had taken the Government of Sri Lanka to New York Federal Court and pleaded for a direction that the Government should pay in full the principal plus interest due to them amounting to $ 257 million. She asked her grandpa, Sarath Mahatthaya, an ex-employee of the Ministry of Finance, about this.

The following is the conversation between Aseni and Sarath.

Aseni: Grandpa, the Government had hired a legal consultant and a financial consultant to help it restructure selected foreign borrowings because it does not have forex to pay them, and it is one of the pre-conditions for seeking a bailout package from IMF. While this work is going on, one of the investors in the ISB due to mature on 25 July 2022, namely, Hamilton Reserve Bank, has filed a case against the Government in New York Federal Court demanding the full repayment of the moneys they have invested in those ISBs. What is this court case and how will it affect the Government’s planned debt restructuring program?

Sarath: Hamilton Reserve Bank is not a US bank, but one that has its headquarters in St. Kitts and Nevis, a tiny British Commonwealth country in the Caribbean. It is a popular tax haven. They have sued Sri Lanka in USA because the law applicable to the issue of these ISBs is the US Law and not the Sri Lanka Law. Their action is like placing a spanner in the path of the Sri Lanka Government which is planning to go for a debt restructuring.

What has been planned by the Government is to restructure some selected borrowings, namely, from commercial markets by issuing ISBs, and from bilateral sources – they are called bilateral because only one lender and borrower are involved. Borrowings from individual countries like China, India, Japan, UK, USA, and so on are included in this latter category. In addition, the Government has borrowed from international financial institutions – called multilateral sources – like ADB, World Bank, International Fund for Agriculture Development, etc., and by issuing bonds denominated in US dollars called Sri Lanka Development Bonds or SLDBs. These two categories are not in the debt restructuring plan. But, since Sri Lanka does not have foreign exchange, the country is unable to repay such debt also. The bitter truth is that Sri Lanka will have to default all its foreign debt that includes borrowings by government corporations like CPC, SriLankan Airlines, Water Board, and so on, and those borrowed by the private sector businesses.

Under restructuring, both the borrower and the lender will agree to a new repayment plan. That should necessarily be repayment of less than the full amount. It can be waiving of the interest or waiving of some part of the principal or a combination of both. When interest or some part of the principal is waived, it is called in investment jargons taking a ‘haircut’. For instance, if 25% of the principal is waived, it is called a haircut of 25% which the lender should forego. Since the alternative is to lose everything, a haircut of less than 100% is a better deal. However, the size of the haircut will depend on the relative bargaining power of either party. That is because the borrower wants to give the largest haircut, while the lender wants to accept the smallest haircut. Since both parties hire competent legal and financial advisors to argue their case, the negotiation will be a tough job.

Sri Lanka’s bargaining power will be weakened by the new court case against it. If the New York Federal Court delivers its judgement in favour of Hamilton Reserve, Sri Lanka will have to make the full payment on 25 July. If it does so, the other creditors will also ask for the same treatment on the principle of equal treatment. Then, the debt restructuring plan will come to a standstill. If it does not pay, it will amount to a default and the country runs the risk of its assets within the jurisdiction of the court being confiscated to recover the debt. For instance, if a Sri Lankan plane lands in USA or elsewhere, the lender can invoke the court’s jurisdiction to acquire it to recover its debt. In a similar judgment delivered against Argentina, a frigate belonging to that nation and anchored in Ghana was detained to recover the dues to bondholders. That is because when sovereign bonds are issued, the issuing country forfeits its sovereign immunity rights.

These lenders who take the borrowers to courts are called ‘holdout investors’ because they stand outside the negotiating creditors putting a hold on the ongoing restructuring plan. And these litigations may take many years for conclusion. For instance, in the case of Argentina, the whole restructuring plan was made inactive by some bondholders taking the country to courts in USA and the US courts took some 10 years to deliver the judgement. Hence, this court case is necessarily a spanner placed in Sri Lanka’s path.

Aseni: I hear that debt restructuring is a precondition for Sri Lanka to get an IMF bailout. If so, does this mean that this bailout negotiations will be delayed?

Sarath: In a way yes. If the issue with the holdout bondholders can be resolved amicably and quickly, there is no impediment for the proposed bailout package. But that depends on the conditions of the bond issues. Prior to 2015, the typical sovereign bonds had a clause that had given extra powers to bondholders called Collective Action Clause or CAC. Under that clause, even a single bondholder can hold the borrower at ransom and demand preferential treatment. This CAC is not applicable to all the bonds issued as a pool but to each bond issued. They are called single series CACs.

But after 2015, there was a new innovative clause under which if 75% of the bondholders agree, they could go ahead with a debt restructuring plan even if the balance 25% disagrees. Hence, the bond maturing on 25 July 2022, issued prior to 2015, will be subject to this impediment. As such, the restructuring could get delayed if the New York Federal Court delivers its judgement against Sri Lanka. If it happens, it will also delay Sri Lanka’s planned bailout from IMF. That is why I said that it is advisable for Sri Lanka to resolve that issue amicably and quickly.

Aseni: You said that since Sri Lanka does not have forex, it is likely that it will default all the foreign currency denominated debt, both public and private. However, there are some experts who have argued that Sri Lanka’s foreign currency denominated debt has been underreported. Is it correct Grandpa?

Sarath: In public discussions, many refer to the total foreign currency debt as equal to $ 51 billion picking a number that has been published by the Central Bank in its Annual Report for 2021. This has grossly underreported the foreign currency borrowings of the country. This has been a practice adopted by the Central Bank since 2020. According to the Bank, this $ 51 billion is made up of $ 27 billion representing the central government and $ 24 billion owed by the non-government sector. This latter category is made up of borrowings by the Central Bank, commercial banks, savings and development banks, public corporations, and the private sector businesses.

To arrive at the true foreign currency borrowings of the country, we will have to make a reconciliation of the numbers published by the Bank. Let’s start with the central government debt which has been recorded as $ 27 billion. This is mostly made up of loans obtained by the government amounting to $ 21 billion and bonds amounting to $ 6 billion. The loans have been recorded at their face value liability. But several adjustments have been made to the value of bonds which do not stand to economic logic. In the case of international sovereign bonds or ISBs, the face value liability has been $ 13 billion.

But the Central Bank has changed this value by making two adjustments. One is that the ISBs held by local commercial banks and individuals have been removed from this value and recorded it as a domestic borrowing of the Government. The second is of the remaining ISB value, what has been taken to books is their market price and not the amount which the Government should pay at the end. Since ISBs are traded at a deep discount today – for instance, an ISB with a repayment liability of $ 100 is traded on average at around $ 40 – the value so recorded is less by $ 60 than its true level.

In addition, the amount of Sri Lanka Development Bonds or SLDBs held by local commercial banks and individuals have been removed from the foreign debt and added to Government’s domestic debt. In this manner, the total underreporting of government’s foreign debt has been $ 9 billion. This will make the central government’s borrowing $ 36 billion and the total country borrowing $ 60 billion.

The story does not end there. There are public corporations like CPC, CEB, Water Board, etc. which have raised foreign funds on guarantees given by the Government. Since these institutions cannot repay these loans, ultimately, the Government will be required to shoulder the burden. This category has an outstanding balance of $ 9 billion. Accordingly, the central government’s borrowings will increase to $ 45 billion and the total country borrowings to $ 69 billion or 82% of GDP. This is the total value of foreign currency borrowings which the Government must repay.

Aseni: You said that this adjustment does not stand to economic logic. Why is it so?

Sarath: In the case of a creditor, when the market price goes down, he should make a ‘mark to market’ adjustment by reducing his lending portfolio to the market price. But the amount written off is a loss and should be charged to the profit and loss account. A debtor cannot do this, unless creditors have agreed to write it off. In Sri Lanka’s case this has not happened. Further, if such a write-off is allowed, the amount written off is a gain for Sri Lanka and it should be written back to the revenue of the budget. The Central Bank has not done this adjustment. Hence, it is an arbitrary writing-off.

Categorising the dollar denominated bonds held by domestic entities as domestic debt is meaningless because they are to be repaid in dollars and not in rupees. In fact, when they matured, the full amount was paid in dollars. Hence, the adjustment made by the Central Bank does not stand to economic logic. It seems that the Bank has confused debtors with creditors.

Aseni: What this means is that the Government should have a restructuring plan for the entire value of $ 45 billion. In addition, those private sector borrowings amounting to $ 24 billion may also need a similar restructuring process. What is your view on this, Grandpa?

Sarath: True, the Government cannot do this restructuring in piecemeal. If it pays the full value for some creditors and ask others to agree to a haircut, they might ask Sri Lanka to apply the principle of equal treatment. It also weakens Sri Lanka’s defence in the New York Federal Court.

About the private sector debt, since Sri Lanka does not have foreign exchange reserves to service it, there is a likelihood of forced default of that debt. This problem does not arise if the private sector entities can repay those loans by borrowing again from that source or from elsewhere. But with lower credit rating for sovereign Sri Lanka at ‘restrictive default’ or RD level, it is very unlikely to happen. This is because when the sovereign rating is at a certain level, the entities in the country cannot get a rating above that level. For instance, Fitch Ratings has downgraded the short-term and long-term foreign borrowings of the Bank of Ceylon to RD from C level quoting that the Bank has missed one of its recent debt repayments. Hence, the next debt crisis will hit the country when the private entities are unable to raise foreign funds anymore.

Sri Lanka’s Central Bank is facing this problem right now. If it cannot get the SWAP facilities with other central banks extended when they mature, it will have to default them because it has no capacity to repay them with its negative foreign reserves at $ 4 billion as at the end of April 2022. This is why it is important for Sri Lanka to get this IMF bailout package as soon as possible.

Aseni: What about the domestic borrowings of the Government? Are those loans too facing a similar problem?

Sarath: The advantage of domestic borrowings of the Government is that they can be repaid by printing money if the market participants do not want to lend to the Government at the going interest rates. This happened in the case of the previous week’s Treasury bill issue. The Central Bank had offered Rs. 93 billion to the market, but it could get from the market at the prevailing bill rates of around 21% only Rs. 31 billion. The Central Bank had to give a major part of the balance Rs. 62 billion to the Government by issuing a Treasury bill to itself. The ordinary people call this money printing. As a result, the Central Bank’s Treasury bill holdings have increased to Rs. 2,086 billion on Friday, 24 June from Rs. 2,043 billion a day ago.

But this money printing is not a healthy feature for inflation fighting, exchange rate stabilisation, and overall macroeconomic stability of the country. It will also hamper Sri Lanka’s ongoing negotiations with IMF for a bailout package. That is because one of the preconditions for the bailout package is to cease the central bank funding of the government. For that purpose, IMF has recommended to the Government to get funding by adjusting the tax rates which Ministry of Finance has done only halfway through.

In this context, Aseni, someone can argue that Sri Lanka’s domestic debt is not sustainable. Hence, it is not a surprise if the demand for restructuring of the domestic debt is also presented as a precondition for this IMF bailout.

Aseni: Thanks, Grandpa, for the explanation. I have now learned the complexity of these debt restructuring exercises. It is not a cakewalk but a task which should be carefully planned and implemented.

Sri Lanka rules out refueling stops for non-scheduled aircraft and instructs all airlines to “strictly” carry fuel for return journey

Sri Lanka’s civil aviation authorities last night issued a “Notice to Airmen” (NOTAM) advising that local airports cannot accommodate requests for refueling by non-scheduled aircraft.

They also advised scheduled aircraft operating to all airports in Sri Lanka “to strictly adhere to the requirement of carrying return sector fuel”. “This requirement does not include diplomatic, humanitarian and emergency aircraft intending to operate to Sri Lankan airport,” the NOTAM said.

The reason is given as “due to limited ability of Jet A-1 fuel at Sri Lankan airports”. The Sunday Times reported yesterday that aviation fuel supplies are at critically low levels with the Civil Aviation Authority of Sri Lanka (CAASL) saying it was fighting to ensure they will last the week.

“The jet fuel situation is becoming very worrying,” CAASL Director General Capt. Themiya Abeywickrama said. “The Ministry is involved in trying to get it sorted out. We are calculating till when we can run and hope to manage till the end of the month.”

On Sunday, Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera said the country will invite companies with capacity–including marine bunker companies–to provide aviation fuel. He said an entity had earlier been selected from six that had bid for the tender but that it had not delivered so far.

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A call for debt justice, debt cancellation and transparency in IMF negotiations

The Coalition for Economic Democracy in Sri Lanka (CEDSL) is a group of concerned academics, activists, agricultural, fisheries and industrial workers, students, business persons, trade unionists, and professionals based ‘in country’ and overseas, including the diaspora, who uphold the values of economic rights and justice in public policy making.

In the wake of two years of economically-devastating COVID-19 lockdowns, quantitative easing, and money printing globally, we call on international actors to heed the people’s demands for a ‘debt jubilee’ and ‘cancellation’ as a priority.

We wish to draw your attention to key issues regarding the current debt crisis and its social, political and economic impacts which are not adequately represented in public discussion, yet crucial to the wellbeing and security of Sri Lanka’s citizenry.

“The gross lack of transparency in ongoing negotiations between the IMF and a government that lacks legitimacy but purports to represent the citizens is a consequence of an inherently unequal relationship between Sri Lanka and the IMF, where the US and former European colonial powers have overwhelming decision-making power. While the IMF demands ‘transparency’ and that all creditors be treated ‘equally’, the names of the ISB holders behind Sri Lanka’s default are a closely guarded secret”

A call for debt justice

International support is welcome to ease the economic burden on the people of Sri Lanka which includes shortages of fuel, food and medicines that impact livelihoods and health, increasing poverty and inequality. However, due to an International Sovereign Bond (ISB), debt trap and depreciation of the Sri Lankan rupee against the US dollar, sustainable solutions are needed rather than short-term sale of strategic assets that benefits ISB holders and hedge funds that sustain dependent development.

In May/June 2022 Sri Lanka’s debt was estimated to be $ 51 billion with current debts of $ 5 billion to be paid to ISB holders and hedge funds like BlackRock, which secured huge United States (US) government ‘COVID-19 bailout’ funds to asset-strip and impoverish countries around the world during the economically-devastating COVID-19 lockdowns.

Contrary to widespread media disinformation about the sources of debt and the causes of default, this is the first time that Sri Lanka, in April of this year, defaulted as an independent state. It is the debt owed to ISBs that amounts to almost 50% that has caused the default at this time.

The Asian Development Bank and World Bank have indicated willingness to roll over their multilateral debt, so too the bi-lateral debt holding Asian countries including Japan, China and India. Along with debt cancellation there is need for de-dollarisation and trading in a basket of currencies. The loss of such autonomy and sovereignty due to the ISB debt trap and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stepping in to devalue the currency is at the root of the current shortage of food, fuel, meds, fertiliser, gas, etc. The purported shortage of ‘exorbitantly privileged’ dollars is the most devastating impact of the entire “staged” default.

While the return of stolen assets by the Rajapaksa family, some who are US citizens, is vital, we believe that there is an even greater need for ‘debt justice’, a ‘debt jubilee’, and ‘debt cancellation’ and the current international financial architecture is not fit for purpose, particularly, the IMF which works for the global 1 percent and imposes austerity on the rest.

Transparency in IMF negotiations

The gross lack of transparency in ongoing negotiations between the IMF and a government that lacks legitimacy but purports to represent the citizens is a consequence of an inherently unequal relationship between Sri Lanka and the IMF, where the US and former European colonial powers have overwhelming decision-making power. While the IMF demands ‘transparency’ and that all creditors be treated ‘equally’, the names of the ISB holders behind Sri Lanka’s default are a closely guarded secret!

In 2019, Sri Lanka was classified by the World Bank as an Upper Middle Income Country (MIC), making it ineligible for concessionary development loans, and forcing it to borrow from private capital markets at high interest rates. The new government that came to power cut taxes causing a significant loss of government revenue. The 2019 Easter bombings and policies undertaken during two years of militarised COVID-19 lockdowns and mass injections have triggered the current debt crisis leading to the staged default.In 2019, Sri Lanka was classified by the World Bank as an Upper Middle Income Country (MIC), but just three year later in 2022 certain international actors want Sri Lanka to be re-classified a ‘Least Developed Country’ (LDC), and the island to join the world’s poorest of the poor1 – in Washington Consensus parlance, a “Highly Indebted Poor Country” (HIPC).

LDC status will mean a significant loss of economic and foreign policy autonomy and sovereignty at a time when it is vital that Sri Lanka and other developing countries act in their own self-interest rather than be forced to join geostrategic blocs that are being formed in the Indian Ocean region such as the QUAD at this time of Cold War 2.0.

We consider that the peoples’ sovereignty and national policy autonomy is being undermined through non-transparent deals with politicians who are not democratically elected and have a history of amassing ‘odious debt’, the burden of which citizens are being forced to bear. Particularly notable on the accumulation of odious debt are the current odious, newly appointed Prime Minister, implicated in the country’s biggest financial fraud over the Central Bank bond scam, and the President, a US citizen until 2019, whose family wallows in nepotism. They are now negotiating with the IMF to sell national assets?!

There is a clear pattern of disinformation, exaggeration and fear-generation regarding Sri Lanka’s debt in local and global media messaging. This understates the intrinsic Wealth of the Nation, its strategic assets, and the strengths of this country given the failure to differentiate between illiquidity and insolvency in the context of a proposed IMF fire sale of assets and State Owned Enterprises (SOEs).

The IMF’s traditional approach to debt restructuring though privatisation of SOEs, austerity measures, and fire sale of assets of countries merely causes more problems and places the burden on the poor as is evident in from Argentina, to Greece and Lebanon. However, odious debt is an outcome of speculative and reckless ISB lending sans due diligence to governments that lack legitimacy and are known to be corrupt. In fact, the IMF which works for the Global 1 percent is a part of the problem and not the solution. So too are processes of datafication, manipulation of matrices, indices and algorithms to ensure ‘pumping and dumping’ of countries into the MIC debt trap, LDC or HIPC status and Paris Club ‘solutions’ of asset stripping of countries.

“International support is welcome to ease the economic burden on the people of Sri Lanka which includes shortages of fuel, food and medicines that impact livelihoods and health, increasing poverty and inequality. However, due to an International Sovereign Bond (ISB), debt trap and depreciation of the Sri Lankan rupee against the US dollar, sustainable solutions are needed rather than short-term sale of strategic assets that benefits ISB holders and hedge funds that sustain dependent development”

Southern voices to be heeded

There is an urgent need for Southern voices and perspectives in development, debt cancellation and debt justice in the International Aid Architecture as many countries in the Global South face a similar situation of odious debt as an outcome of speculative and reckless lending by ISB traders who must be also held accountable.2

The demand of many Sri Lankans is for debt cancellation and de-dollarisation and trading in a basket of currencies, not IMF re-structuring; for example, to enable the purchase of discounted oil and gas from sanction-hit Russia perhaps in exchange for tea. Sri Lanka should have the economic and foreign policy sovereignty to source its needs from any country that offers good value for money.

A firm “No” to IMF fire sale of strategic assets and asset stripping: A list has already been prepared of strategic lands, airports, ports, transport, telecom frequencies and energy infrastructure to be privatised. The dastardly sale of the Yugadhanavi power plant US-based New Fortress has already further compromised national security and policy sovereignty and autonomy.

Today the interests of Sri Lanka are being represented by foreign law firms, Lazard and Clifford Chance in so-called IMF negotiations with ISB traders. On numerous occasions, Lazard, which has been involved in both advising on privatisation and then profiting from its advice, has undervalued the price of state companies, enabling its asset management branch to purchase the stock at low prices and re-sell it for considerable profit.3

If the debt negotiations are so complex that Sri Lankan law firms and accountants cannot represent the interests of the citizens of the country, and the debt data is itself contested, the debt is odious, its holders unknown, and the negotiations not transparency, then fundamental question arise regarding legitimacy, transparency and accountability of the very process of so-called IMF negotiations. Such concerns were also raised in IMF negotiations in Greece, Lebanon and Argentina and other countries.

The United Nations Charter and international law affirm the Right of Peoples to Self-Determination and permanent sovereignty over their wealth, resources and economic activity as a precondition for the realisation of all human rights. So too, principles of sovereignty and independence of states, equality in relations with other states, and national policy-making autonomy cannot be eroded by global Covid-19 and other ‘pandemic’ and climate catastrophe narratives.

Sustainable solutions: Long-term, medium-term, short-term

We seek much more than debt relief, and demand ‘debt justice’! While the crisis in Sri Lanka is being framed as a “humanitarian disaster” it is quite clear that it is more complex with economic, political, social and geopolitical dimensions and dynamics.4 Solutions must hence be duly designed, tailored and targeted to improve the lives of the most vulnerable, and to restore sovereignty to the people of Sri Lanka and their State.

1. We demand a ‘debt jubilee’ and to write off the odious debts held by ISB debt holders like BlackRock (that also holds Adani stock), that engaged in reckless lending that has debt trapped several countries including Sri Lanka. COVID-19 saw the greatest transfer of wealth in human history from the bottom of the economic ladder to the top.

2. We call on the Government to urgently begin a process of de-dollarisation and trade in a basket of currencies in order to restore Sri Lanka’s monetary sovereignty and pursue a course of development that promotes South-South cooperation and responds to the needs and aspirations of the Sri Lankan citizenry. The relevance of the current International Development Architecture for Sri Lanka and other debt trapped countries in the Global South must be questioned. Sri Lanka needs to reconsider its relations with institutions like the IMF, WB, OECD, Paris Club of Donors in a manner that affirms not dismantles its sovereignty and policy autonomy, both exercising the ability to negotiate as an independent country free of IMF conditionality and US sanctions, and working in the interests of its citizens.

3. We call on the Government to immediately stop all initiatives and actions underway for the privatisation of strategic assets, including lands, airports, ports, telecom frequencies, transport and energy infrastructure, and reverse all actions already commenced or implemented as valuations did not consider the island’s geostrategic value and security concerns.

4. We call on the Government to develop a National Energy and Food Security Policy based on analysis take cognisance of the current global energy wars, geopolitics and climate catastrophe discourses. Of utmost importance in ensuring food security is the maintenance of food supply chains, and prioritisation of fuel for the Fisheries and Agriculture sectors in the context of fuel rationing; rationalisation of taxation, and targeting the wealthy – to enable the most vulnerable groups such as farmers, fishers precarious workers in the informal sector, and small and medium term enterprises to regain their livelihoods. In the absence of such a policy, climate narratives like the rush to “green energy” and organic fertiliser without an adequate transition plan and transfer of technology given the island’s tiny carbon footprint has contributed significantly to the current fuel, food and economic crisis in Sri Lanka and in other parts of the Global South.

5. The strengthening of governance and government institutions is paramount to address the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns which gave rise to a pandemic of corruption and a lack of accountability due to national institutions and oversight agencies being debilitated under the guise of lockdowns, holidays due to staged fuel shortages, de-centralisation and inept digitalisation. Services like public transport can be improved through more energy efficient and environment friendly measures and the abolishing of duty free car permits for politicians and the privileged ‘professional’ class. Finally, there is an urgent need for a “Buy local” State-led consumer education program so that citizens support local industry and manufacturers.

On 24 June, 2022, this statement was authored and signed in Sri Lanka, France and Australia by:

Tamara Kunanayakam was Sri Lanka’s Ambassador/Permanent Representative to the United Nations at Geneva, and former Ambassador to Brazil and Cuba. She served as Chairperson/Rapporteur of the United Nations Intergovernmental Working Group and senior official at the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR).

Dr. Darini Rajasingham-Senanayake is a social and medical anthropologist with research expertise in international development and political economic analysis. She was a member of the International Steering Group on “Southern Perspectives on Reform of the International Development Architecture”.

Jeremy Liyanage was a teacher of the Social Science, lecturer in Community Development and held positions in the church, community and government sectors. Before founding the charity, Bridging Lanka, Jeremy worked in senior policy positions in local government in Australia.

“Along with debt cancellation there is need for de-dollarisation and trading in a basket of currencies. The loss of such autonomy and sovereignty due to the ISB debt trap and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stepping in to devalue the currency is at the root of the current shortage of food, fuel, meds, fertiliser, gas, etc. The purported shortage of ‘exorbitantly privileged’ dollars is the most devastating impact of the entire “staged” default”

Co-signatories

Professor Asoka Bandarage – academic and distinguished (adjunct) professor at the California Institute of Integral Studies. She taught at Yale University, Brandeis University, Macalester College, Georgetown University, European Peace University and Mount Holyoke College, MA where she received tenure

Dr. Michael Roberts – Historian and lecturer at the Dept. of History at Peradeniya University (1961-76) and the Dept of Anthropology at Adelaide University (1977-2003). Rhodes Scholar. His major works are in agrarian history, social mobility, nationalism and ethnic conflict

Dr. Dharshana Kastiriaratne, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Computing, Computer Science and Software Engineering, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology (SLIIT)

P.C. Nathan – Deputy Secretary General of Ceylon Mercantile and General Workers Union (CMU), one of the largest trade unions in the commercial sector in Sri Lanka

Ranjit Seneviratne – Marine Engineer and former official with the FAO in Rome who now champions non-chemical, biodiverse ‘forest garden’ methods of cultivation

Dr. Sandya Hewamanne – Professor of Anthropology, Department of Sociology at the University of Essex, and the Director of IMPACT-Global Work

Lacille De Silva – former Director, Administration, and former Director, Legislative Services, Parliament of Sri Lanka

Rohini Hensman is a writer, independent scholar and activist working on workers’ rights, feminism, minority rights and globalisation based in Mumbai and London.

Hiran Fernando – is a retired Chemical Engineer who worked at Unilever for more than 25 years and is now involved in civil service initiatives

Ananda Weerasekere – retired Human Resource Management Specialist and Social Activist

Gamini Lindagedara – Mechanical Engineer and Social Activist

Herman Kumara – National Convener, National Fisheries Solidarity Movement, Chairperson, Praja Abilasha Land Rights Network and Board Member, Right to Life Human Rights Organization

Sandun Thudugala – Director, Programmes and Operations at Law & Society Trust, Colombo

Asoka Siriwardena – Formerly Lecturer in Political Science; international civil servant at the Commonwealth Telecom Organization London, and retired Deputy General Manager Sri Lanka Telecom.

Footnotes:

1. Should Sri Lanka join the ranks of the “Poorest of the World’s Poor”?

http://www.lankapage.com/NewsFiles22/Jun13_1655134777.php

2. Cf. OXFAM report “Inequality Kills”.

3. The Privatization Industry in Europe by Sol Trumbo Vila and Matthijs PetersTransnational Institute Thttps://www.tni.org/files/publication-downloads/tni_privatising_industry_in_europe.pdf

4. A new Quad Humanitarian and Disaster Relief Mechanism (HADR) http://www.colombopage.com/archive_22A/Jun15_1655268284CH.php

Source: DailyFT