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If Gota doesn’t go home, the Executive Presidency may go out By D. B. S. Jeyaraj

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“Go Home Gota” and/or “Gota Go Home” is the resounding clarion call that is currently motivating and mobilizing a number of protest demonstrations throughout Sri Lanka. The underlying thread is that Sri Lanka’s Executive President Gotabaya (Gota) Rajapaksa should resign and quit. The social media too is replete with demands of a similar nature. Even the “Boney M” Group’s 1979 Album “Oceans of Fantasy” lead single “Gotta Go Home” has acquired a fresh lease of life in the internet among those who want Gota to go home. Indeed the repetitive refrain “Gotta go home, home, home, Gotta go home” sounds most appropriate to the prevalent domestic political situation.

The Boney M song also has the line “Going back home. Going back home”. That however does not seem possible at least for now. Gota does not want to go home! Chief Government Whip and Highways Minister Johnston Fernando has stated in Parliament that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa would not resign. “As a responsible government, we state that President Gotabaya will not resign from his post, under any circumstances,” Minister Fernando reportedly said. Apparently President Rajapaksa feels that 6.9 million citizens of the country who voted for him have provided a mandate that cannot be overturned by mass demonstrations.

According to informed SLPP circles, President Gotabaya accepts that the people are protesting living conditions like shortages, rising prices, loss of livelihood decline of the rupee’s value etc. The people wanted these problems to end and their initial demonstrations were organic and genuinely spontaneous. However Gotabaya opines – according to SLPP circles – that Sajith Premadasa his chief rival at the 2019 hustings diverted the protest demanding immediate action to resolve these problems into an agitation demanding the President’s resignation and a handover of Govt to the “Samagi Jana Balawegaya”(SJB). Therefore he invited the opposition parties including the SJB to join a new interim Govt. This was spurned and the call for Gota to resign was renewed. As such, Gota will “stay put and fight,” say these sources.

Against this backdrop it is now becoming increasingly clear that President Rajapaksa is not going to resign and can’t be compelled to quit if he is not willing to do so. It is in a sense a stalemate.

Given the speed in which the SLPP-led Govt is disintegrating and the realization that the country has deteriorated under the present executive president, there is much optimism that the Bill would be passed with two-thirds and approved at a referendum. The abolition of the executive presidency may be possible at last

Sajith Premadasa

However in a surprising move, the SJB Leader and leader of the opposition Sajith Premadasa called on all parliamentarians to seize the opportunity at hand and support legislation to abolish the Executive Presidency. Speaking in Parliament on April 5, Sajith said “The time has come to abolish the Executive Presidency. Let us use this opportunity to change this system and introduce one with checks and balances. Let us use all the available emergency constitutional tools available and within this week bring laws to abolish the Executive Presidency.”

The opposition leader’s call to abolish the executive presidency was most welcome to all those who perceive the executive presidency as a major cause of the country’s ills. Yet, there were some who were doubtful because some of Sajith’s key supporters and advisers wanted the executive presidency to be retained. Premadasa himself had not been vocally active against the executive presidency. He had also contested the 2019 presidential poll. It was felt in some quarters that Sajith’s call was a tactical response to Johnston Fernando’s assertion that Gota was not going to resign.

Much of these misgivings and doubts about Sajith Premdasa’s position diminished by an important event on the following day – April 6. It may be recalled that Jaffna District MP and Tamil National Alliance (TNA) spokesperson M.A. Sumanthiran had taken the initiative to convene two multi-party meetings to discuss the prevailing economic and political crisis afflicting Sri Lanka. The objective was to forge a collective position on these. Leaders and representatives of several political parties had met and engaged in brainstorming sessions. A consensus was arrived at regarding economic issues and a document prepared and submitted to the President.

Monarch Imperial Hotel

Now a third meeting was held on April 6 to discuss the ongoing political crisis. Several political party leaders and MP’s participated in a four-hour meeting from 5.30 pm to 9.30 pm at the “Monarch Imperial Hotel” in Kotte. Among those who attended the meeting were opposition and SJB Leader Sajith Premadasa, UNP Leader and former PM Ranil Wickremesinghe, Former Speaker Karu Jayasuriya, Muslim Congress Leader and MP Rauff Hakeem, TPA leader and MP Mano Ganeshan, Former Ministers and SJB MPs Eran Wickremaratne and Dr. Harsha de Silva.

After intense discussions, it was resolved that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa should heed the voice of the people and resign voluntarily. The Sri Lankan people cutting cross ethnicity and religion demand it. Besides no effective turnaround of the economy is possible under the Gotabaya Rajapaksa dispensation. Steps should be taken to reduce or eliminate his power. The best way to do that is to abolish the executive presidency itself. The Sri Lankan people would gladly welcome the disempowerment of the ruling executive president by abolishing the executive presidency. In short the executive presidency “throne” on which Gota was sitting would be yanked away from under his posterior.

Sajith Premadasa stated that the SJB’s position on abolishing the executive presidency would be officially announced in Parliament the following day though he would not be in the House due to the TPA/SJB protest rally at Talawakelle. On March 7, SJB Kandy district MP and Chief Opposition whip Lakshman Kiriella announced in Parliament that the SJB was committed to abolishing the Executive Presidency. He said that the SJB will introduce a draft Bill to the House shortly to abolish the Executive Presidency and asked the Government to support the move. “When we brought the 19th Amendment to the constitution, we had only 45 MPs but we managed to discuss with all parties and get the needed 2/3rd support for it. We can do this again,” Kiriella said.

Private Members Bill

It is learnt that efforts will be underway soon to draft the bill to abolish the executive presidency. It will most likely be presented to Parliament as a Private members Bill by Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa himself. The abolition of the executive presidency would require the Bill to be passed by two-thirds majority in Parliament and endorsed by the people at a countrywide referendum. Given the speed in which the SLPP-led Govt is disintegrating and the realization that the country has deteriorated under the present executive president, there is much optimism that the Bill would be passed with two-thirds and approved at a referendum. The abolition of the executive presidency may be possible at last.

The fact that the opposition leader himself is presenting the Bill to do away with the executive presidency, adds much importance and weight to the exercise. It is also significant that Sajith is the son of Ranasinghe Premadsa who was closely associated with JR Jayewardene in introducing the executive presidential system. JR was the first and Premadasa the second executive presidents of Sri Lanka.

Junius Richard (JR) Jayewardene

The genesis of the executive presidency in Sri Lanka needs to be examined briefly in order to place the current moves connected to the abolition of the executive presidency in perspective. As stated earlier it was Junius Richard Jayewardene (J.R. Jayewardene) known as JR who masterminded the change of Sri Lanka’s political system from the British Westminister model to that of one closely resembling the French Gaullist Constitution. Power shifted to the president who was transformed from a figurehead to an effective head of state. The post of Prime minister got devalued. Nevertheless JR did work through Parliament also by ensuring that the cabinet would consist of Parliament members only.

JR had first articulated his vision of a presidential system in December 1966. When JR was Minister of State in the UNP Government of Dudley Senanayake (1965 -’70), he made a ground-breaking speech at the Association for the Advancement of Science. JR in his keynote address of December 14, 1966, outlined his vision for an executive presidency and argued in favour of a presidential system based on the US and French models.

“The Executive will be chosen directly by the people and is not dependent on the Legislature during its period of existence, for a specified number of years. Such an Executive is a strong Executive seated in power for a fixed number of years, not subject to the whims and fancies of an elected Legislature; not afraid to take correct but unpopular decisions because of censure from its parliamentary party,” he said. The essence of JR’s “vision” is in the words “an Executive chosen directly by the people not dependent on the whims and fancies of an elected Legislature”.

JR’s advocacy of an executive presidency sent shock waves down the political establishment then. Relations between Premier Dudley Senanayake and State minister JR had deteriorated at that time. Dudley was firmly opposed to the idea. There were few takers for JR’s proposal even within the United National Party. In that environment JR was unable to push his proposal further but never let go of his vision. JR pursued his goal of creating an executive president that was not dependent on Parliament with great zeal and patience.

Constituent Assembly

The chance for JR to espouse his executive president vision in the form of a tangible proposal came six years later during the United Front (UF) Government of Sirimavo Bandaranaike (1970-’77). Parliament had converted itself into a Constituent Assembly to draft a new constitution. JR was then the Leader of the Opposition while Dudley Senanayake remained Leader of the UNP.

On July 2, 1971, JR moved a resolution in the Constituent Assembly. It read as follows: “The Executive power of the State shall be vested in the President of the Republic, who shall exercise it in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution. The President of the Republic shall be elected for seven years for one term only by the direct vote of every citizen over 18 years of age. The President of the Republic shall preside over the council of ministers.”

JR’s motion was seconded at the Constituent Assembly by Ranasinghe Premadasa who was then the Colombo Central MP and Chief Opposition Whip. JR argued eloquently, within the Constituent Assembly, in support of an executive presidency. The motion was shot down then. Constitutional Affairs minister Dr. Colvin R. de Silva led the Govt. onslaught against JR’s proposal. Even the majority of UNP Parliamentarians were not supportive as party leader Dudley Senanayake himself was firmly opposed to the idea. The JR –Premadasa motion was rejected by the Constituent Assembly then.

The UF Government brought in the new Republican Constitution on May 22, 1972. The Governor General position under the earlier Soulbury Constitution gave way to the post of President. Power was vested in Parliament known then as the National State Assembly and while President William Gopallawa was the titular Head of State, the real power was retained by Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike.

Dudley Senanayake passed away in 1973 and JR succeeded him as UNP Leader. He soon established his leadership position and brought the party under his full control. JR was now able to pursue his vision of an executive presidency from a strong position.

July 1977 Parliamentary Elections

Parliamentary Elections were held in July 1977. The UNP manifesto of 1977 stated, “Executive power will be vested in a president elected from time to time by the people. The Constitution will also preserve the parliamentary system we are used to and the prime minister will be chosen by the president from the party that commands a majority in Parliament and the ministers of the cabinet would also be elected members of Parliament.”

The change to an executive president from prime ministerial system was a key aspect of the UNP electoral campaign in 1977. The UNP swept the polls and obtained 141 out of the total 168 parliamentary seats. JR became Prime Minister in July 1977. He began moving fast towards his cherished vision of an executive presidency.
JR and a small group of ministers and party stalwarts in association with leading lawyer Mark Fernando (later a Supreme Court Judge) started working towards the goal of introducing the executive presidency. The preliminary discussion was on August 7, 1977. An amendment to the Republican Constitution of 1972 was first drafted. After discussions in Cabinet it was approved and certified by the Cabinet as “urgent in the national interest”.

Thereafter it was sent by the Speaker to the Constitutional Court which prevailed at that time, as an “urgent bill”. The Constitutional Court approved the Bill within 24 hours as stipulated. It was then presented to the National State Assembly for debating and voting. The bill was adopted by the then National State Assembly on September 22, 1977 as the Second Constitutional Amendment. Executive power was transferred to the President and JR Jayewardene became the first Executive President of Sri Lanka on Independence Day, February 4, 1978.

Parliamentary Select Committee

Meanwhile JR was also working towards the goal of replacing the 1972 Constitution in its entirety with a new one. On October 20, 1977 the National State Assembly passed a resolution enabling the then Speaker Anandatissa de Alwis to appoint a Select Committee for Constitutional Reform. The essence of the Select committee mandate was “to consider the revision of the Constitution of the Republic of Sri Lanka and other written law as the committee may consider necessary”.

The Parliamentary select committee was announced on November 3, 1977. Initially the chairman was JR who was then representing Colombo West in Parliament. JR however had to vacate Parliament as an MP in February 1978 after he became President. Ranasinghe Premadasa who was also serving in the select committee was then appointed chairman on February 23, 1978 by the Speaker. Premadasa was also appointed Prime Minister.

Other MP’s from the UNP in the select committee were Gamini Dissanayake, Lalith Athulathmudali, Ronnie de Mel, KW Devanayagam and MHM Naina Marikkar. MP’s from the SLFP appointed to the committee were Sirima Bandaranaike and Maithripala Senanayake. Ceylon Workers Congress Leader Saumiyamoorthy Thondaman who had not joined the Govt. then was also on the committee. The chief opposition party of that time the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) refused to serve on the committee. In May 1978 both SLFP representatives withdrew from the select committee. Since the left parties had been wiped out in the 1977 poll, there were neither Trotskyites nor Communists in the committee.

The executive presidency ushered in through the earlier second amendment was now streamlined and incorporated in the new draft constitution. The executive president was now head of state and head of Govt. The electoral system was also changed from the first pass the post victor system to that of proportional representation. Sri Lanka became a Democratic Socialist Republic. The new Constitution referred to popularly as the “JR Constitution” was formally promulgated on September 7, 1978.

Gaullist System in Asia

After the presidential system was installed, Prof. Alfred Jeyaratnam Wilson analyzed it in his book ‘The Gaullist system in Asia: The Constitution of Sri Lanka’. In it he observed: “What Jayewardene was after was a stable Executive which would not be easily swayed by pressures from within or outside. The outcome in the end was a President who in many ways and can in certain circumstances be more powerful than the French President.” A crucial point to note is that though JR introduced a presidential system, he did not provide for a cabinet appointed from outside Parliament. JR was also averse to a powerful Presidential Secretariat as a parallel centre of power to the Cabinet.

Why was that?

In response to Prof. Wilson’s specific query on that issue, JR replied, “I must say I am very reluctant to appoint advisers who will be around the president. The reason is that I wish the president to have only his prime minister and the cabinet of ministers as advisers because they represent the people as Members of Parliament.”

J.R. Jayewardene also outlined this position at the convocational address of the University of Sri Lanka on May 31, 1978. This is what he said at the time: “I am the first elected Executive President, Head of State and Head of Government. It is an office of power and thus of responsibility. Since many others will succeed me I wish during my term of office to create precedents that are worthy of following. First, I will always act through the Cabinet and Parliament, preserving the parliamentary system as it existed without diminution of their powers. Second, I will not create a group known as the President’s men and women who will influence him.”

This then was JR Jayewardene’s definition of the Presidency he had set up. This practice of following the British cabinet model and confining such cabinet ministers to be members of Parliament has created an impression that the old system prevailed still in full force.

Constitutional “Dictator”

Notwithstanding JR’s claims to the contrary the reality was that governance had changed utterly in Sri Lanka after the executive presidency. The executive President was both above as well as independent of the “de- valued” legislature. Thus the first Sri Lankan executive president Junius Richard Jayewardene in practice became a Constitutional “dictator”.

D. B. S. Jeyaraj can be reached at dbsjeyaraj@yahoo.com

S&P downgrades Sri Lanka’s foreign currency rating’ Likely to lower even further

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S&P Global Ratings Wednesday lowered its long-term foreign currency sovereign rating on Sri Lanka to ‘CC’ from ‘CCC’. At the same time, S&P lowered the long-term local currency sovereign rating to ‘CCC-’ from ‘CCC’. The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative.

In addition, S&P affirmed its ‘C’ short-term foreign and local currency sovereign ratings. S&P also revised down transfer and convertibility assessment to ‘CC’ from ‘CCC’,

“The negative outlook on the ratings reflects the high risk to commercial debt repayment in the context of Sri Lanka’s economic, external, and fiscal pressures,” S&P said in a statement.

S&P said it could lower the foreign currency rating to ‘SD’ (Selective Default) upon confirmation that the government has missed a coupon or principal payment on commercial foreign currency debt, including its upcoming April 18 coupon payment on international sovereign bonds, or upon confirmation of debt restructuring terms.

S&P said it could lower the local currency ratings if there are indications of nonpayment or restructuring of rupee-denominated obligations.

There are limited upside scenarios to the ratings currently. Upon completion of any bond restructuring, S&P will assign new foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings that reflect Sri Lanka’s post-exchange creditworthiness.

Amid steeply rising external funding pressures, and alongside increasingly widespread social and political protests, the Sri Lankan government announced on April 12 that it will suspend debt servicing on its foreign currency obligations.

Sri Lanka has coupon payments due on April 18 for its 2023 and 2028 International Sovereign Bonds and S&P expects the government to miss paying these coupons, and therefore lowered the foreign currency sovereign ratings on Sri Lanka to ‘CC’.

“We are likely to lower Sri Lanka’s foreign currency ratings to ‘SD’ upon confirmation of nonpayment of interest or principal on any of its commercial foreign currency obligations, including coupon payments on its International Sovereign Bonds due April 18,” the S&P said.

Fitch downgrades Sri Lanka to ‘C’, says sovereign default process has begun

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Fitch Ratings has downgraded Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘C’ from ‘CC’. The issue ratings on foreign-currency bonds issued on international markets have also been downgraded to ‘C’ from ‘CC’. The Long-Term Local-Currency IDR has been affirmed at ‘CCC’ and the Country Ceiling at ‘B-’.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Default-like Process Has Begun: The downgrade of Sri Lanka’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR reflects Fitch’s view that a sovereign default process has begun. This reflects the announcement by the Ministry of Finance on 12 April 2022 that it has suspended normal debt servicing of several categories of its external debts, including bonds issued in the international capital markets and foreign currency-denominated loan agreements or credit facilities with commercial banks or institutional lenders. We will downgrade the LT FC IDR to ‘RD’ once a payment on an issuance is missed and the grace period has expired.

Local Currency Debt Not Affected: The statement applies only to the government’s external debt obligations. Fitch understands from the announcement that locally issued government debt, whether in local or foreign currency, is not affected and assumes service on this will continue.

Since the last review, certain local-currency issuances’ ratings have been corrected to ‘CCC’ and now affirmed.

ESG – Governance: Sri Lanka has an ESG Relevance Score of ‘5’ for Political Stability and Rights as well as for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption, as is the case for all sovereigns. These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Sri Lanka has a medium World Bank Governance Indicator ranking in the 46th percentile, reflecting a recent record of peaceful political transitions, a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process, moderate institutional capacity, established rule of law and a moderate level of corruption.

ESG – Creditor Rights: Sri Lanka has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of 5 for Creditor Rights as willingness to service and repay debt is highly relevant to the rating and is a key rating driver with a high weight. The downgrade of Sri Lanka’s rating to ‘C’ reflects Fitch’s view that a default-like process has begun.

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India’s aid to Sri Lanka: Well begun is barely half done -Deccanherald

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Reams can be written on the tragedy called Sri Lanka, and wagonloads of midnight oil can be burnt in debating the causes and remedies for this human disaster that consumed three generations and is threatening the health of the gen-next. India cannot ignore this latest Lankan tsunami of shortages, especially with the stalking Chinese dragon eyeing to gobble up the island and open a new battlefront barely 30 minutes by speedboat across the Palk Strait down south.

Sri Lanka, the lovely little pearl of the Indian Ocean, should not be in such deep distress, not so frequently. The Eelam war ended in May 2009 after consuming close to 2.5 lakh lives and just when the world expected the tear-shaped island to start smiling at spiking inflows into its treasury through a revival of tourism, tea exports and remittances of its citizens working abroad, yet another crushing load of woes has sunk it deeper. Redemption seems pretty tough unless a series of miracles happen from multiple magic wands, even as the rulers in Colombo and their detractors remain locked up in their selfish agendas.

With the decimation of the Tamil Tigers and their dreaded leader Velupillai Prabhakaran, President Mahinda Rajapaksa was hailed by the Sinhala majority (constituting about 75 per cent of the 22 million population) as the saviour of the country, a reincarnation of Emperor Dutugemunu, the legendary Sinhala king who had vanquished a Tamil monarch and unified much of the country under his rule over 2000 years ago. He was crowned by his masses as the Lion in the Sri Lankan flag (it has a roaring lion holding a raised sword in one hand).
Read | Gota’s gotta go, Lankans say, Destination Uganda?

Mahinda’s brother Gotabaya, the powerful defence secretary who had steered the war victory along with the military commander, General Sarath Fonseka, was his poster-mate when the presidential election was held eight months later, in January 2010. Mahinda won with a huge margin against his rival Fonseka, who was then put up as the combined opposition candidate in the hope he would be able to steal some of that war glory.

Riding regally upon the yuan-spitting Chinese dragon, ‘Emperor’ Mahinda has had a free run of Sri Lanka but for a brief topple in January 2015 when he lost the presidential election to his little-known cabinet colleague Maithripala Sirisena. He blamed India’s RAW for his defeat.

The Chinese quickly retrieved the throne for Mahinda after ‘neutralising’ Maithri with their time-tested therapy of bribes and bubbly perks. By the end of 2019, the Rajapaksa family was back in control, while pro-Delhi/pro-West Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe of the rival UNP lost his seat in what was then seen as the first big victory for China over India in the tussle for control of the island.

With no challenger visible anywhere on the political horizon, Mahinda could have ruled the country for life if only he had not chosen to drown it in high corruption. Had he used his post-war popularity to push for constitutional reforms that replaced Sinhala supremacy with multiracial inclusivity, he would have gone down in history as one of the greatest statesmen in the world.

Instead, Mahinda, along with his Rajapaksa clan, chose to waste the opportunity that destiny presented him with. As the country thus seemed to be heading for disaster, the present crisis was hastened by a series of stupid revenue-depleting decisions—such as cutting taxes during the Covid hit, shifting the island’s agriculture to the less-yielding organic mode and using up huge chunks of foreign borrowings for servicing external debt and to create unproductive fancy structures.

A steep drop in foreign exchange reserves needed to import the essentials such as food, fuel and medicines led to unprecedented shortages of essentials. The expected happened when the finance ministry on April 12 admitted there was no option but to default on the $51 billion external debt, awaiting a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.

When the hungry-angry Sinhala people marched to President Gotabhaya’s house demanding he quit office, Gotabhaya saw an external hand—read India—in the rebellion and vowed not to quit. Hoping to distract the public anger, Prime Minister Mahinda got his entire 26-member cabinet to resign late-night April 4, but he stayed put in power.

Mahinda brought in Ali Sabry as his finance minister in a move seen by many as placating the oil-rich Gulf region. Sabry resigned within 24 hours but announced later he would rather stay since nobody came forward to accept the responsibility.

While China gleefully fanned the greed and arrogance of the Lankan First Family, getting in return one major project after another and gradually inching towards taking control of the island to strengthen its ‘String of Pearls’, India seemed to have all but lost the game. Delhi woke up to the threat of a new battlefront evolving down south only when the Chinese Ambassador Qi Zhenhong undertook a provocative trip to Jaffna (December 2021) and declared, “This is just the beginning”.

A series of quick remedial measures undertaken by the External Affairs Ministry, backed by a determined prime minister keen on India keeping its regional interests preserved and the loosening of purse strings by the Finance Ministry, plus the QUAD support, led to India stepping up its role to help Sri Lanka from its crisis. In this process, Delhi also managed to get Colombo to sign up six agreements during External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit there in March.

Three of them are of great strategic significance—wresting from China the project to build hybrid power projects in three Palk Strait islands close to south Tamil Nadu; creating a maritime rescue coordination centre that would mean access to the Sri Lankan air and sea space for Indian air-sea craft; and, helping in the maintenance and upgrade of fisheries harbours in the island. Needless to say, the last-mentioned project could bring almost the entire island coastline under India’s scrutiny if not controlled.

Of course, all these ambitious deals could get derailed by some succeeding regime in this slippery political mosaic unless India maintains its firm grip over the southern neighbour by keeping its lifeline going for the Sri Lankans from its own resources and through ‘safe’ collaborations with international financial institutions, such as the IMF, while also creating a monitoring mechanism to ensure that all the global aid coming into the island is properly utilised.

In this process, two challenges need to be overcome by some deft Jaishankarian diplomacy – winning the confidence of the majority Sinhala population that always had deep suspicion if not allergy towards India while regaining the support of the Tamils that was lost when the Eelam war collapsed, and they accused Delhi of collaboration in the massacre.

The second big challenge would be to get democracy back on its feet in Sri Lanka and help bring in a government that would be honestly friendly to India’s geopolitical interests, which means keeping a safe distance from the Dragon. This is the first time since their ascendancy that the Rajapaksas are facing this kind of Sinhala street anger, and Delhi must help in politically channelising this into positive energy for the good of the region.

External Affairs Minister Jaishankar seems to be on the right track and must work harder in bringing in the Tamil leadership to fall in line as well; right now, most of these Eelathalaivars with expiry tags stuck to their punctured lapels are squabbling over the leadership of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). This is what I had meant when I spoke of miracles happening off multiple magic wands.

(R Bhagwan Singh is a senior journalist based out of Chennai, writing on Sri Lanka since the 1980s)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.

Sri Lankans protesting in Galle Face reject PMs offer for talks; vow to continue

Posted on | by Branita | Leave a Comment on Sri Lankans protesting in Galle Face reject PMs offer for talks; vow to continue

Sri Lankans protesting outside the most powerful building in Colombo – The President’s Office – demanding the resignation of the President and the Government, have rejected Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa’s offer for talks.

“We did not come here for talks. We are here to demand that you and the government resign,” said one youth protestor at the protest site which is now known by them as GotGoGama.

Almost all others echoed the same sentiment rejecting the offer for discussions.

“I’m willing & prepared to meet with citizens currently engaged in the protests at Galle Face to hear their thoughts & complaints. Understanding that this is a tough time for all of us, I invite them to meet & discuss any possible, plausible courses of action for the sake of Sri Lanka,” the Prime Minister tweeted, while also sending a statement to the media.

Hundreds have stayed put there since Saturday (9) despite bouts of heavy rain, saying they will not leave until the president, prime minister, and the government resigns.

Dozens of tents filled with donations including water, food, and medicine to sustain protesters, occupy the lawns and streets of Galle Face.

Men, women, and children from all walks of life have rallied at Galle Face, waving the country’s golden lion flag, chanting slogans, and holding up placards with hand-written messages

The Occupy Galle Face protesters say they have had enough.

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US human rights report finds credible reports that Sri Lanka security forces committed numerous abuses

Posted on | by Branita | Leave a Comment on US human rights report finds credible reports that Sri Lanka security forces committed numerous abuses

The US State Department’s human rights report for 2021 said there were credible reports that members of the Sri Lanka’s security forces, primarily the police, committed numerous abuses and the Sri Lankan government did not make a significant effort to address the violations.

The annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2021 said the government took minimal steps to identify, investigate, prosecute, and punish officials who committed human rights abuses or corruption, and there was impunity for both.

The US State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor published its annual Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for 2021 and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday released the report to the public.

The Country Report said there were several reports that the government or its agents committed arbitrary or unlawful killings and added that during the year there was no significant progress on cases against officials accused of arbitrary, unlawful, or politically motivated killings.

Lack of accountability for conflict-era abuses persisted, particularly regarding government officials, military, paramilitary, police, and other security-sector officials implicated and, in some cases, convicted of killing political opponents, journalists, and private citizens.

Civil society organizations asserted that the government and the courts were reluctant to act against security forces, citing high-level appointments of military officials credibly accused of abuses and pardons of convicted murderers.

While there were no reports of disappearances by or on behalf of government authorities, disappearances during the war and its aftermath remained unresolved.

Although the constitution and law prohibit torture and other cruel practices, authorities reportedly employed them, the 2021 Country Report noted. Interviews by human rights organizations have found that torture and excessive use of force by police, particularly to extract confessions, remained endemic.

Impunity remained a significant problem characterized by a lack of accountability for conflict-era abuses, the report said.

Significant human rights issues documented by the report included credible reports of: unlawful and arbitrary killings, including extrajudicial killings; torture and cruel, inhuman, or degrading treatment or punishment by the government; harsh and life-threatening prison conditions; arbitrary arrest and detention; politically motivated reprisals against individuals in other countries; serious problems with the independence of the judiciary; arbitrary and unlawful interference with privacy; restrictions on free expression and media, including violence and threats of violence against journalists, unjustified arrests and prosecutions of journalists, and censorship; restrictions on internet freedom; interference with the freedom of peaceful assembly and freedom of association, including overly restrictive laws on the organization, funding, or operation of nongovernmental organizations and civil society organizations; restrictions on freedom of movement; serious government corruption; among others

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Gota’s gotta go, Lankans say, Destination Uganda?

Posted on | by Branita | Leave a Comment on Gota’s gotta go, Lankans say, Destination Uganda?

Visitors to one of the many homes of the embattled President of Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa — now facing a wave of street protests over a crippling economic meltdown — almost always stop to admire an unusual ‘aquarium’ in the living room.

Not only is it on the floor, covered with a sheet of glass, the fish in the water body isn’t your usual garden variety goldfish, but a school of man-eating piranhas!

The President’s choice of pet fish — straight from James Bond villain Blofeld’s playbook — epitomises not just his luxe lifestyle, but his ‘take no prisoners’ persona of conducting business, in keeping with the image he’s carefully cultivated as the ‘Terminator’. The annihilation of the separatist Liberation Tigers for Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the long-running 30-year battle, powered him to the presidency in the 2019 polls, polling 6.9 million votes for himself, and a massive two-thirds majority for his Sri Lanka Podujana Perumana Party; the whispered silencing of nearly every one of his critics, the stuff of legend.

Mangala Samaraweera, who served as both finance and foreign minister in then-president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s cabinet, was only sacked from the job when he was suspected of tracking where the Rajapaksas parked their wealth. Others paid a much bigger price. The ‘white-van disappearances’ targeted close family friend and journalist Lasantha Wickrematunga, editor of the Sunday Leader, gunned down at a traffic light in the heart of the capital Colombo in 2009 as he drove to work.

Wickrematunga’s letter, revealed post-assassination, named Mahinda – Gotabaya’s elder brother, two-term president and head of the family — was a shocking indictment of the clan’s brute tactics in silencing critics.

Fewer dare to speak of Gota’s rumoured meltdown when he served in the army as a young soldier and reportedly sought an honourable discharge!

The difference between then and now, 13 years after he led the slaughter of the Tamil Tigers as Mahinda’s defence minister, is that Gotabaya has overnight turned into his country’s most reviled leader; as has the rest of the family, five of whom held top posts in the recently dissolved cabinet — including younger brother Basil Rajapaksa, who was finance minister until April 4.

The resignations, seen as a move to buy time, are unlikely to help shift the blame away from the first family for the economic mess the country finds itself in, or stop them from facing the music. Based on a complaint that he was “misusing public funds”, a Colombo magistrate has already ruled that the Governor of the Sri Lankan central bank, Ajith Nivard Cabraal, a key presidential aide, cannot leave the country.

The Rajapaksas are under public scrutiny, too.

The economic crisis, with foreign reserves down to an estimated $1.7 bn and gold reserves down to $29 mn, has been a long time coming. Indeed, on Tuesday, Sri Lanka defaulted on payments on $51 bn of external debt. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, Executive Director at Colombo’s Centre for Policy Alternatives, blames it on the “systemic failure of the government, its profligate spending to boost its own popularity rather than safeguard the economy.”

Former President Mahinda’s wooing of Chinese investment to build white elephants such as the international port facility in hometown Hambantota and capital Colombo are only two examples of many such projects that yield no revenue. The famed Lotus Tower convention centre, an international airport at Mattala, a cricket stadium named after the Rajapaksas, and a string of highways are other examples of wasteful expenditure. Raising public sector employment in government and the military in peace time, with the attendant costs of pensions eating up dwindling revenue, was in keeping with the Mahinda-Gotabaya ploy to use debt – the first International Sovereign Bonds were tapped as early as 2007 — to ensure their popularity among the gullible populace, just like Gotabaya’s tax cuts in 2019, which favoured a select few.

The blinkers are now off. The popular uprising that has exploded on the streets of Colombo, gathering pace across this once prosperous country, has angered the very same Sinhala majority that had catapulted the Rajapaksas to power.

Dubbed Sri Lanka’s ‘Arab Spring’, the protesters do include members of the Tamil-speaking minority whose war-ravaged north continues to cry out for re-development, as much as justice for war crimes — the UNHRC is reportedly set to charge the President on this count. But the hundreds of thousands who are laying siege to the presidential secretariat on Colombo’s seafront have little or no political leanings. They are drawn not just from the Sinhala-speaking majority, but also Muslims, Catholics, and the clergy — both Buddhist and Christian — with nary a political leader in sight. A prominent Buddhist monk who had led poll rallies for the Rajapaksas was booed out of one such protest. Holding placards and shouting slogans are Sri Lanka’s educated and aware, young and old, doctors and factory workers, as well as fruit vendors and IT professionals, cutting across the ethnic and class divides.

Unlike even a few months ago, the fury against the Rajapaksas is because their mishandling of the economy now impacts their daily lives. The depleted forex reserves have made it near impossible to import fuel and food, causing a widespread food shortage, and the misery made worse with crippling 13-hour power cuts that have brought hospitals and all vital services to a grinding halt.

The deeply unpopular – and ill-considered — move by Gota’s government to ban the use of chemical fertilisers in this agricultural hub, with the government only allowing the import of unaffordable organic fertiliser, was a death blow to the hugely lucrative tea industry, and cultivation of staples like paddy, vegetables and fruit, making it impossible for the common man to afford even the basic necessities.

“My fruit vendor asked me not to bargain as I usually do as he didn’t have enough money to even buy food for his children,” said a resident of Galle Face, who ended up buying the whole cart of fruits and giving the tearful orange seller a set of clothes for his family for the new year on April 13-14.

This is when protests are expected to turn violent, with sources close to the government leaking the minutes of a meeting on how pro-government rowdy elements would be introduced to create the circumstances that would bring in the army and the imposition of a possible Emergency.

The first big blow to the man on the street came with the huge drop in tourism earnings after the Easter bombings of 2019, followed by tourist numbers dipping alarmingly from an average of 2.52 mn visitors in the previous years to a mere 540,000 in 2020, with tourist sector earnings declining from $ 5 bn to $ 1 bn post-pandemic. With remittances from the Middle East shrinking as thousands lost their jobs, and inflation peaking at 18.7%, the island nation’s largely prosperous 22 million population is now increasingly stretched.

Stoking the people’s rage further are the persistent — if hitherto unproven — reports of the first family robbing the exchequer and looting the economy, amid growing calls for seizure of the Rajapaksas’ properties and assets abroad. The finger-pointing at Basil’s dual citizenship, alongside questions resurfacing on whether Gotabaya had, in fact, given up his US citizenship, a criterion to be eligible for the presidency, have now reached a crescendo, with the Opposition calling for the abolition of the Executive Presidency brought in through the 20th Amendment to the Constitution, which gave Gota sweeping powers.

Gota has set up a panel to address the economic distress, and has approached the IMF for talks to restructure outstanding international sovereign bonds that amount to $12.55 billion, and seek a moratorium on the $1 billion in payments due this July. But in a reflection of government ineptitude, within 24 hours of appointing Ali Sabry as the new Finance Minister, Sabry put in his papers, but with no one else willing to take his place, returned to his post!

Gota had dispatched his brother and then Finance Minister Basil a number of times to India this past year, with the same motive, putting aside the past game of playing Delhi off against Beijing, a ploy that had infuriated the Narendra Modi government, particularly when he scrapped the Colombo Port Terminal project that had been promised to India, and handed it over to China. Adding to India’s ire, Gota handed over three islands in the north, barely 50 km from the Indian coastline to China. The Rajapaksas have since made amends by offering India an alternative to the Colombo port project and scrapping the development of the three islands with China and handing it over to India. In turn, Delhi has extended a $2.5 billion credit line and sent food and goods to its beleaguered neighbour and may well sign off on another $500 million credit line for fuel.

China’s cold shoulder is no mystery. “If China agreed to do this for Sri Lanka, it would set a very bad precedent for other countries in the China debt trap,” explains Sravannamuttu, who had urged the Rajapaksas to approach the IMF to restructure the debt, which the brothers had refused to do till this week. Too late. On Tuesday, Sri Lanka announced that it had defaulted on all its external debt.

Either way, in characteristic Gota fashion, as the social media erupted last Friday, and mobs converged on the offices and homes of lawmakers, including one of the President’s homes in Mirihana where luxury cars were parked in the driveway on March 31, he declared an Emergency and announced a ban on social media. When he called it off within 48 hours, under intense pressure from the diplomatic community, one of the most popular memes doing the rounds under the #GoGotaGo hashtag is a screengrab of Mahinda’s son Namal Rajapakse with his baby son sporting Gucci baby shoes!

Namal’s family has reportedly fled the country already, but he has stayed on. But rumours of a flight of capital, showing three Sri Lankan airline aircraft heading to Uganda in February 2021 refusing to divulge the contents of the ‘paper’ cargo, and the controversy over Mahinda’s trip to the Indian temple town of Tirupati on a chartered flight that flew from Uganda’s Entebbe airport via the tax haven of San Merino, were also doing the rounds. Also circulating were reports of the close relationship between the Rajapaksas and the Sri Lankan Ambassador to Uganda and Kenya, Velupillai Kananathan, who hosted Mahinda and his wife during a visit to Kampala.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a prominent businessman in Kampala told this reporter that it was common knowledge that Kananathan, whom The Sunday Times of Sri Lanka called “a racketeer and profiteer”, was involved in gun-running for the LTTE before he befriended the Rajapaksas. The comment could not be independently confirmed.

Also doing the rounds was a list of 10 companies that the Rajapaksas have reportedly invested in – most of them in Kampala but one each in Dubai and Liechtenstein. The family is named on the board of the Kampala-based companies which are largely real estate firms, heavy engineering and concrete manufacturing units, while the Dubai facility is a company set up to import oil from Qatar to Sri Lanka.

The Opposition alliance, led by Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya, and former PM Ranil Wickremesinghe, backed by the Tamil National Alliance, have belatedly got into the act, attempting to cobble together a two-thirds majority, with plans to begin a no-confidence motion, and impeachment proceedings against the President. They are pushing for Gota to resign immediately, the Rajapaksas are playing for time.

As the protesters converge on Independence Square in the heart of Colombo, steadily upping the ante, the big question is: Will the Rajapaksas stay on and fight, or scoot. Destination Uganda?

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In Sri Lanka, an uneasy calm before the storm

Posted on | by Branita | Leave a Comment on In Sri Lanka, an uneasy calm before the storm

Since Sri Lanka slowly but surely opened its doors to international travel, anyone planning to visit has had to make some compromise or the other. Till not too long ago, one had to accept rather draconian quarantine measures to be able to set foot in the country. But just as the world was limping back to some semblance of normalcy, Sri Lanka’s self-made economic crisis, heightened by the pandemic, was starting to make world headlines.

When I saw a window of opportunity with COVID restrictions being relaxed, I decided to squeeze in a ten-day personal visit towards the end of March. In the lead-up though were scenes of protests outside government offices, reports of gas shortages and cylinders stuck at the harbour because the government was broke on foreign exchange. Fuel shortages made power outages inevitable, and it would only get worse.

What does a tourist do? Accept a compromise and hope for things to get better. Why was I even slightly hopeful? Having visited Sri Lanka several times over the course of 25 years, I have seen the country undergo rapid transformation since the tension of the ethnic conflict. In the mid-2000s, I experienced phased power cuts of not more than three hours in the evenings, definitely more manageable than the current crisis. Around that time, a suicide bomber detonated a police station in the heart of Colombo, forcing a curfew, that was mercifully lifted soon.

However, the current economic crisis is extraordinary in itself and at the time the writing, non-violent protests have swelled with cricketers and middle-class working professionals calling for the President and his family to resign. It’s also a stroke of luck perhaps that I departed for India hours before the Emergency was declared, just when the muck had truly hit the fan.

During my cab ride from the airport to my father’s place in central Colombo, we pass through pitiful scenes of people holding cans queuing up for fuel at petrol stations under the harsh afternoon sun. My driver Sriyantha is simultaneously making arrangements to source a gas cylinder for his home, though at a hefty premium. He shrugs and tells me there is no other alternative. He offers his services if I plan to travel elsewhere during my stay. I ask him for his card. He tells me rather apologetically he had run out of them and can’t get any more printed due to the shortage of printing ink. This time he chuckles, though it’s more out of sheer hopelessness.

The shortages were spreading. The Island newspaper announced it would not print its Saturday edition due to a newsprint shortage. Another report mentioned the halting of printing school text books with ink in short supply. Liquid milk in supermarkets was like gold dust. Schools were cutting back on sending their vans to fetch and drop students home due to the fuel crisis. I saw swanky SUVs queuing up for diesel at the fuel station at Horton Place all the way deep into Maitland Crescent. Mind you, this area houses the city’s elite, embassies and diplomats.

The power cuts were unpredictable. It began with outages in two phases for around 5-6 hours in total. However, towards the end of March, it doubled overnight to 10 hours and then a doomsday 13 hours. I heard it wasn’t consistently this way across all areas. The outer suburbs reported much longer outages, some exceeding the 11 pm deadline, going by some social media posts.

As the cuts mounted to 10 hours and more, the newspapers published power cut schedules across the country, split into different phases. Despite this, power would be erratic, going off schedule and making it nearly impossible for people to plan their day around the cuts. One can only imagine the nightmare in a work-from-home scenario.

However, the popular southern coast was bustling with tourists, particularly from Europe. Even during the hottest hours, tourists were seen hitting the waves with their surfboards and exploring the seaside towns in groups, presumably to escape the ongoing power cuts. Save for the upscale ones, most do not have power backup. It was sultry when I checked into my resort in Mirissa, further down the coast from Galle. Power wasn’t expected for at least another three hours. We all could do nothing else but smile and accept the new reality. The sea breeze was the only saviour.

In the week leading to the Emergency and subsequent curfew – both of which were revoked quickly after citizens’ unrest – there was an eerie calm around Colombo. The peace itself seemed disconcerting, as if you knew something was about to happen but you could never tell when.

On the evening of March 31, power had returned, breaking with schedule and central Colombo was lit up. While some parts were in darkness, malls were buzzing, skyscrapers in the downtown Fort area were brilliantly lit in a thoughtless exhibition of opulence, as people ventured out for their mid-week social. What was impossible to tell was that in another part of town, outside the President’s house in Mirihana, tensions were escalating. Within hours, a nightlong curfew was imposed.

A brief chat with a three-wheeler driver summed up the general cynicism around the ruling party. I mention that the cuts have been scaled up to 13 hours. “No hope, sir. Tomorrow they say 15, next it will be full 24 hours,” he thunders.

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World Bank says Sri Lanka’s economic outlook is highly uncertain, needs urgent policy measures

Posted on | by Branita | Leave a Comment on World Bank says Sri Lanka’s economic outlook is highly uncertain, needs urgent policy measures

Sri Lanka’s economic outlook is highly uncertain due to the fiscal and external imbalances, the World Bank said today expressing concern about its impact on people.

The World Bank, in its twice-a-year regional update on economic outlook said Sri Lanka needs urgent policy measures to address the high levels of debt and debt service, reduce the fiscal deficit, restore external stability, and mitigate the adverse impacts on the poor and vulnerable.

Released today, the latest South Asia Economic Focus Reshaping Norms: A New Way Forward projects the region to grow by 6.6 percent in 2022 and by 6.3 percent in 2023. The 2022 forecast has been revised downward by 1.0 percentage point compared to the January projection, mostly due to the impacts of the war in Ukraine.

Countries in South Asia are already grappling with rising commodity prices, supply bottlenecks, and vulnerabilities in financial sectors. The war in Ukraine will amplify these challenges, further contributing to inflation and deteriorating current account balances.

“The World Bank is deeply concerned about the uncertain economic outlook in Sri Lanka and the impact on people,” said Faris Hadad-Zervos, World Bank Country Director for Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka.

“We are working on providing emergency support for poor and vulnerable households to help them weather the economic crisis and we remain committed to the wellbeing of the people of Sri Lanka, and to a narrative of sustainable and inclusive growth that will require concerted and collective action”

Sri Lanka needs to address the structural sources of its vulnerabilities. This would require reducing fiscal deficits especially through strengthening domestic revenue mobilization. Sri Lanka also needs to find feasible options to restore debt sustainability. The financial sector needs to be carefully monitored amid high exposure to the public sector and the impact of the recent currency depreciation on banks’ balance sheets. The necessary adjustments may adversely affect growth and impact poverty initially but will correct the significant imbalances, subsequently providing the foundation for stronger and sustainable growth and access to international financial markets. Mitigating the impacts on the poor and vulnerable would remain critical.

In South Asia, though GDP growth continues to be solid during the recovery, all countries in the region will face challenges ahead. On a positive note, exports of services from the region are on the rise as the pandemic subsides.

The war and its impact on fuel prices can provide the region with much-needed impetus to reduce reliance on fuel imports and transition to a green, resilient and inclusive growth trajectory. The report recommends that countries steer away from inefficient fuel subsidies that tend to benefit wealthier households and deplete public resources. South Asian countries plan to move towards a greener economy by gradually introducing taxation that puts tariffs on products which cause environmental damage.

Another challenge the region faces is the disproportionate economic impact the pandemic has had on women. The report includes in-depth analysis of gender disparities in the region and their link with deeply rooted social norms, and recommends policies that will support women’s access to economic opportunities, tackle discriminatory norms, and improve gender outcomes for inclusive growth.

India’s aid to Sri Lanka: Well begun is barely half done

Posted on | by Branita | Leave a Comment on India’s aid to Sri Lanka: Well begun is barely half done

Reams can be written on the tragedy called Sri Lanka, and wagonloads of midnight oil can be burnt in debating the causes and remedies for this human disaster that consumed three generations and is threatening the health of the gen-next. India cannot ignore this latest Lankan tsunami of shortages, especially with the stalking Chinese dragon eyeing to gobble up the island and open a new battlefront barely 30 minutes by speedboat across the Palk Strait down south.
Sri Lanka, the lovely little pearl of the Indian Ocean, should not be in such deep distress, not so frequently. The Eelam war ended in May 2009 after consuming close to 2.5 lakh lives and just when the world expected the tear-shaped island to start smiling at spiking inflows into its treasury through a revival of tourism, tea exports and remittances of its citizens working abroad, yet another crushing load of woes has sunk it deeper. Redemption seems pretty tough unless a series of miracles happen from multiple magic wands, even as the rulers in Colombo and their detractors remain locked up in their selfish agendas.
With the decimation of the Tamil Tigers and their dreaded leader Velupillai Prabhakaran, President Mahinda Rajapaksa was hailed by the Sinhala majority (constituting about 75 per cent of the 22 million population) as the saviour of the country, a reincarnation of Emperor Dutugemunu, the legendary Sinhala king who had vanquished a Tamil monarch and unified much of the country under his rule over 2000 years ago. He was crowned by his masses as the Lion in the Sri Lankan flag (it has a roaring lion holding a raised sword in one hand).
Mahinda’s brother Gotabaya, the powerful defence secretary who had steered the war victory along with the military commander, General Sarath Fonseka, was his poster-mate when the presidential election was held eight months later, in January 2010. Mahinda won with a huge margin against his rival Fonseka, who was then put up as the combined opposition candidate in the hope he would be able to steal some of that war glory.
Riding regally upon the yuan-spitting Chinese dragon, ‘Emperor’ Mahinda has had a free run of Sri Lanka but for a brief topple in January 2015 when he lost the presidential election to his little-known cabinet colleague Maithripala Sirisena. He blamed India’s RAW for his defeat.
The Chinese quickly retrieved the throne for Mahinda after ‘neutralising’ Maithri with their time-tested therapy of bribes and bubbly perks. By the end of 2019, the Rajapaksa family was back in control, while pro-Delhi/pro-West Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe of the rival UNP lost his seat in what was then seen as the first big victory for China over India in the tussle for control of the island.
With no challenger visible anywhere on the political horizon, Mahinda could have ruled the country for life if only he had not chosen to drown it in high corruption. Had he used his post-war popularity to push for constitutional reforms that replaced Sinhala supremacy with multiracial inclusivity, he would have gone down in history as one of the greatest statesmen in the world.
Instead, Mahinda, along with his Rajapaksa clan, chose to waste the opportunity that destiny presented him with. As the country thus seemed to be heading for disaster, the present crisis was hastened by a series of stupid revenue-depleting decisions—such as cutting taxes during the Covid hit, shifting the island’s agriculture to the less-yielding organic mode and using up huge chunks of foreign borrowings for servicing external debt and to create unproductive fancy structures.
A steep drop in foreign exchange reserves needed to import the essentials such as food, fuel and medicines led to unprecedented shortages of essentials. The expected happened when the finance ministry on April 12 admitted there was no option but to default on the $51 billion external debt, awaiting a bailout from the International Monetary Fund.
When the hungry-angry Sinhala people marched to President Gotabhaya’s house demanding he quit office, Gotabhaya saw an external hand—read India—in the rebellion and vowed not to quit. Hoping to distract the public anger, Prime Minister Mahinda got his entire 26-member cabinet to resign late-night April 4, but he stayed put in power.
Mahinda brought in Ali Sabry as his finance minister in a move seen by many as placating the oil-rich Gulf region. Sabry resigned within 24 hours but announced later he would rather stay since nobody came forward to accept the responsibility.
While China gleefully fanned the greed and arrogance of the Lankan First Family, getting in return one major project after another and gradually inching towards taking control of the island to strengthen its ‘String of Pearls’, India seemed to have all but lost the game. Delhi woke up to the threat of a new battlefront evolving down south only when the Chinese Ambassador Qi Zhenhong undertook a provocative trip to Jaffna (December 2021) and declared, “This is just the beginning”.
A series of quick remedial measures undertaken by the External Affairs Ministry, backed by a determined prime minister keen on India keeping its regional interests preserved and the loosening of purse strings by the Finance Ministry, plus the QUAD support, led to India stepping up its role to help Sri Lanka from its crisis. In this process, Delhi also managed to get Colombo to sign up six agreements during External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s visit there in March.
Three of them are of great strategic significance—wresting from China the project to build hybrid power projects in three Palk Strait islands close to south Tamil Nadu; creating a maritime rescue coordination centre that would mean access to the Sri Lankan air and sea space for Indian air-sea craft; and, helping in the maintenance and upgrade of fisheries harbours in the island. Needless to say, the last-mentioned project could bring almost the entire island coastline under India’s scrutiny if not controlled.
Of course, all these ambitious deals could get derailed by some succeeding regime in this slippery political mosaic unless India maintains its firm grip over the southern neighbour by keeping its lifeline going for the Sri Lankans from its own resources and through ‘safe’ collaborations with international financial institutions, such as the IMF, while also creating a monitoring mechanism to ensure that all the global aid coming into the island is properly utilised.
In this process, two challenges need to be overcome by some deft Jaishankarian diplomacy – winning the confidence of the majority Sinhala population that always had deep suspicion if not allergy towards India while regaining the support of the Tamils that was lost when the Eelam war collapsed, and they accused Delhi of collaboration in the massacre.
The second big challenge would be to get democracy back on its feet in Sri Lanka and help bring in a government that would be honestly friendly to India’s geopolitical interests, which means keeping a safe distance from the Dragon. This is the first time since their ascendancy that the Rajapaksas are facing this kind of Sinhala street anger, and Delhi must help in politically channelising this into positive energy for the good of the region.
External Affairs Minister Jaishankar seems to be on the right track and must work harder in bringing in the Tamil leadership to fall in line as well; right now, most of these Eelathalaivars with expiry tags stuck to their punctured lapels are squabbling over the leadership of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). This is what I had meant when I spoke of miracles happening off multiple magic wands.