The result of the Ninth Sri Lankan Presidential election uncannily followed a pattern that had unfolded in other countries in South Asia recently.
Seemingly strong and well-entrenched leaders suffered humiliation at the hands of weaker opponents.
In June, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi failed to achieve the target of 400 plus seats in a House of 543 members, even as the mainstream media blared that he would sweep. His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to a get a majority on its own and had to depended on crutches provided by two allies to form a government.
In August, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, an iron lady credited with putting the country on the economic fast track, was ousted and driven out of the country by a university students-led mass movement. Her winning the January 2024 parliamentary elections with a thumping majority was to no avail.
And now in Sri Lanka, experienced politician and administrator President Ranil Wickremesinghe, was mauled by a political greenhorn, Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National Peoples’ Power (NPP) in the September 21 Presidential election.
Anura Kumara Dissanayake won with 42% of the vote, Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) came second with 32%. Wickremesighe got only 17.2%.
Toiling under trying local and global conditions from July 2022 to September 2024, President Wickremesinge had restored normal life in Sri Lanka after it was crippled by an unprecedented shortage of essential commodities in 2022.
The man-made economic crisis happened when Sri Lanka had barely recovered from the ravages of COVID-19 and also an international economic crisis triggered by the Russo-Ukrainian war.
Wickremesinghe secured an IMF package of US$ 3 billion with Western and Indian support. He got US$ 4.5 billion from India to keep Sri Lanka afloat.
And yet, Sri Lankan voters consigned Wickremesinghe to the third position in the Presidential poll.
Key features
The 9th., Lankan Presidential election will stand out for the following reasons:
(1) It is the first Presidential election in Sri Lanka in which no candidate got 50% plus votes necessary to win in the first round. For the first time, the second preference votes were counted to decide the winner.
(2) It is for the first time that a candidate with little or no administrative experience and from a very small party, has emerged as the single largest vote getter.
The most experienced candidate was Wickremesinghe who had held Finance and Defence portfolios apart from the Premiership and the Presidency. Dissanayake, on the other hand, was Agriculture Minister only for a year in a coalition government long ago. He has only had parliamentary experience though he often led the opposition charge against the government. Even Premadasa had only been Housing Minister.
Sri Lankan voters defied conventional ideas about voter behaviour. It was thought that people would vote on the basis of loyalty to parties and also as whole families rather than as individuals. It was also thought that voting would be on the basis of the rural-urban divide or class and cultural divides. But the voting pattern this time showed that Dissanayake had support across social, ethnic, regional and religious divides.
Another popular pre-election theory was that economic factors would determine the voting pattern. Because Wickremesinghe had turned the economy round with the help of the IMF bailout and its prescriptions, he would reap a rich harvest of votes. But that was not to be!
On the contrary, non-economic factors proved to be decisive. These were: (1) a yearning for a new face (2) thirst for a total change even if there is no clear idea of the nature of change (3) anger against Wickremesinghe for running the government with the help of MPs belonging the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) led by the “corrupt” Rajapaksa family.
Wickremesinghe’s plea that he had to seek the help of the SLPP to pass legislation in parliament to save the economy, fell on deaf ears. He lost because he was tainted by his association with the Rajapaksas. The fact that Namal Rajapaksa was one of the 38 candidates contesting against him did not help wash off the taint.
Dissanayake as President
Given the fact Dissanayake was trying to appeal to every section of Sri Lankan society, not just the working class, he toned down his Marxist or radical left wing rhetoric and assured each section that he will not be hostile to them.
Such assurances were given to the corporates who were anxious about his stand on the private sector. He told the Tamils in Jaffna that he would decentralise power to them.
Dissanayake’s nostrum was “Change”. But he never defined and indicated a pathway to it. But the inchoate notion of “change” was swallowed hook, line and sinker by people of all classes, who were thirsting for “change from the old corrupt order and corrupt politicians.”
Dissanayake had never been in power to become corrupt.
His voters now expect him to hound the “corrupt” Rajapaksas and their coterie, and recover the money they had allegedly stashed away overseas. This is a tall order.
Dissanayake has promised to revise the IMF’s prescriptions to make it more tolerable for the poor by increasing direct cash transfers, bringing down taxes etc.
However, experts say that any drastic change in the IMF’s prescriptions or any refusal to abide them, will only result in Sri Lanka’s going back again to the IMF with a begging bowl for the 17 th. time in its history.
Sri Lanka has not got out of the freebie culture. But the government as no money to give freebies any more. It is not clear as to how Dissanayake hopes to bring relief to people when tax concessions cannot be limitless.
It is not clear as to what Dissanayake wants to do when he says that the IMF’s prescriptions would be amended to make them more people-sensitive.
As people have voted him, expecting him to bring them tangible relief, the burden on him to deliver would be very heavy.
Furthermore, the issue of renegotiating the IMF bailout could put strains in Sri Lanka’s relations with the US, India and even China as these back the IMF program.
India had sent its External Affairs Minister S.Jaishankar and Finance Minister Nirmala Seetharaman to talk to the IMF on Sri Lanka’s behalf. India had formally stood up for Sri Lanka, as did China. Any bid to change the deal will upset the applecart.
Relations with India
As a Marxist, Dissanayaka has been a natural ally of China but his party, especially its hard core the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), has anti-Indian tinge.
The JVP’s interest has not been the promotion of China’s interests in Sri Lanka, but whipping up or exploiting anti-Indian feelings among the majority Sinhalese community.
Dissanayake cut his teeth in agitation politics in 1987 when the JVP was leading street battles in Colombo against the India-Sri Lanka Accord of 1987 and the deployment of the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) to implement a scheme of power devolution for the minority Tamils.
During his election campaign Dissanayake pointed out that the Sri Lankan market is flooded with Indian goods and that this must be stopped. He also said that the grant of the 99 giant oil tanks in Trincomalee to India should be annulled and that global tenders have to be floated for their development and use.
He has said that the projects that were given to the Adanis need to be reviewed as these were not based on international tenders.
However, when talking to Indian media, Dissanayake promised that his government would not do anything that endangers India’s security and that he recognized the importance of India in the region.
It will be a challenge for the hard core Marxist, Sinhala nationalist and anti-Indian Dissanayake to keep all interests happy whether in Sri Lanka or outside.
