Jeevan Thondaman meets Tamil Nadu CM

State Minister of Estate Housing and Community Infrastructure Facilities Jeevan Thondaman has held discussions with the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu M.K. Stalin.

Issuing a statement, Thondaman said he had met the Chief Minister yesterday (01) during an official visit to India.

The General Secretary of the Ceylon Workers’ Congress (CWC) said the discussion focused on the ties between India and the Sri Lankans of Indian-origin living in the estate sector of Sri Lanka.

Discussions were also held on the development work being conducted for the estate community, and the new university proposed to be constructed using Indian funds for the estate sector.

Attention was also directed to further strengthening and extending the ties between the Indian Government and the new university to be constructed, Thondaman said.

Jeevan Thondaman also extended his gratitude to Chief Minister M.K. Stalin for his various proposals, including education, infrastructure, and employment facilities, announced recently for the benefit of Sri Lankan immigrants living in Tamil Nadu, India.

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SL ranks 94 in Corruption Perception Index, so there is room to improve – US Envoy Alaina B.Teplitz

US Ambassador Alaina B.Teplitz, in an interview with the Daily Mirror, talks about the development of business environment in Sri Lanka for the attraction of investments. She also responds to questions about the situation in Afghanistan and Quad.
The Excerpts:

Q When you met with the journalists in your latest interaction you mentioned something about this Port City law. You said there are some openings for money laundering in it. Actually what are the specific areas of this particular [law] you look at?

It was a bigger discussion, as you know, that we had with journalists around Port City.We were talking about obviously a potential that Port City also offers. I recognize that the government of Sri Lanka of course wants to make the most of the Port City investment that they’ve got there, and I expressed concern that the government should create the best possible business environment to attract investment to Port City and be careful of how the legislation or implementing regulation could leave doors open to poor practices or even illicit finance like money laundering, corruption, other things that could happen if the regulations don’t meet the highest international standards.

Businesses are going to want assurances that they’re not going to be exposed to those kinds of practices, and certainly for American firms who are by law forbidden from engaging in corrupt practices, they’re going to be very careful if the environment isn’t as clean as possible. So I think these are things that the government should be watchful for, they should be looking to make sure that they aren’t problematic and businesses won’t be exposed to this kind of potentially bad environment.
On the front end, preparation is really important. Making sure that the laws and the regulations meet those high standards.

Q Sri Lanka says it is trying to position itself as the hub of the region and as the gateway to South Asia. How interested is the US participating in this exercise?

The first thing I would say is Sri Lanka is a place with enormous commercial and economic potential and it has a lot of experience having operated ports and engaging in logistics operations. So I think the key, again, to unlocking more of this potential, generating even greater success or sustainable success is going to be having a transparent economic environment that is attractive to investment.

An economically strong Sri Lanka is in the best interest of both the countries. We, for the United States, have long committed to fostering sustainable economic growth in Sri Lanka and have encouraged the government to enact policies that would allow it to manage financial institutions and its public finances in ways that are consistent with international best practices. That’s how they’re going to be in the best position to attract investment around this idea of Sri Lanka as a sort of gateway hub if you will.

Q Also at the very same press interaction you said that US businesses don’t take place around corrupt practices. And you mentioned that in response to a question about this proposed investment by new fortress energy. In your view, Ambassador, how serious is the problem in Sri Lanka?

The 2020 Corruption Perceptions Index done by Transparency International lists Sri Lanka at 94 out of 179 rankings. So clearly, there’s room to improve. India’s at 86. Rwanda’s at 49. Singapore’s at 3. There are a lot of opportunities for Sri Lanka to catch up with some of these competitors and neighbors. I think when government looks at an environment it gauges the risk of obviously corruption and the potential for corruption is part of that risk calculation. And everything that is needed to do to strengthen the economy can also cut down on corruption. So that would be like entering that legislation is meeting high international standards and that it is implemented fully, making sure that contracts are enforced and that procedures are as smooth and streamlined as possible so that there’s no opportunity for solicitation of bribes or [rent seeking] or kickbacks or whatever along the way.

I think consistently applied commercial law can help create an environment for small and medium enterprises to grow in Sri Lanka. As well, they can then be reaching out for international partnership or just growing on their domestic economy. This isn’t just about foreign investment, it’s also about enterprises I think in Sri Lanka having the best opportunity possible. Some of that can be achieved by defeating corruption.

Q What are the other specific areas with Sri Lanka can improve to attract investments and businesses from the United States?

The Sri Lankan government has admirably committed to addressing the ease of doing business. This is the World Bank Annual Index called The Ease of Doing Business Index. Right now Sri Lanka sits at 99 out of 190 countries, so we know there’s room to improve, right? There are lots of opportunities for this to get better. I’m very hopeful there can be success in this way.

I think chiefly investors need predictability. They’re looking for policy consistency, they’re looking for pro-investment policies, and for these policies to last beyond a single government. So I would certainly advocate that politicians, other government leaders, industry leaders, they need to come together around some sort of shared vision of Sri Lanka’s economic and political future and implement a consistent strategy to realize that. Doing so certainly would ensure a healthy economic foundation on which investors could build.

And I would say that, again, in reference to our earlier discussion on Port City and on corruption, investors don’t want to be exposed to risks. Not only is that potentially a problem for their bottom line, but they are beholden to regulatory bodies of their shareholders. Their boards of directors are not going to want to assume certain risks. They’re going to want to know that companies aren’t exposed to or collaborating with entities that might have economic measures levied against them. They’re going to want to know that when they pursue an investment it can be done in a timely and prompt way. And some of the specifics around this would be contract enforcement. That if you sign a contract it can be enforced and managed. That permits license and administrative approvals can come promptly and maybe even from a single, you know, one stop shop kind of source. They’re going to want to have some ease in obtaining land or facilities in order to set up manufacturing or whatever business operation they’ve got. They’re going to want to know that there are no capital controls if they need to pay bills or repatriate profits. These are the kinds of things that can definitely attract more foreign investment from the United States but also from elsewhere.

Q In your view what are the potential business and investment areas in Sri Lanka for US businesses?

The US private sector isn’t directed by the US government. They do make their decisions based on business opportunity and business needs. But that said, I would like to see more investment here and the US Embassy has been working really hard to encourage US businesses to look at Sri Lanka and to advocate for our businesses’ commercial interests. This is part of our job. It’s part of the job of every foreign mission including Sri Lankan missions that are abroad.

Some of the sectors that I think have the most potential, and these are ones that align in areas that President Rajapaksa himself has highlighted as priorities for the government, would certainly be the tech sector, energy sector, and within the energy sector looking at renewables. These are areas of strength for US businesses and offer some potential.

You mentioned New Fortress Energy in a previous question, and I’m encouraged by the recent framework agreement between New Fortress Energy and the government. Having a renowned US company investing in Sri Lanka’s energy sector is going to send strong positive signals to the global investor community and Sri Lanka really need to attract more investment like that to show that it’s a good place to do business.

Q Ambassador, one question about the Quad. Sri Lanka is also strategically positioned, what does the US expect from Sri Lanka in terms of the Quad?

I think it may be helpful to take a step back and look at what the Quad means. Quad is just short for Quadrilateral. India, Japan, the US and Australia are the Four countries. And the Quad initially got together, just literally had a meeting in response to the 2004 tsunami. It became a diplomatic dialogue in 2007. And then it was sort of reborn as a broader conversation in 2017. So it was a convening born out of crisis but has since become a convening of four countries that have a shared vision for the Indo-Pacific. Of course that vision is that it’s a free, open, resilient and inclusive space. We want to make sure that this vast region of the world is accessible, it’s dynamic, governed by international law, and that key principles such as freedom of navigation and peaceful resolution of disputes are the rules that govern this space. And of course we want to make sure that countries are able to make their own policy choices that are free from coercion.

So understanding that is the context, the United States certainly hopes for all countries in the region that we can build on shared values around democracy, human rights, fundamental freedom including freedom like freedom of navigation, including looking at how to have good and well governed economies that can be inclusive and prosperous. This is I think no different than what we worked towards in our bilateral relationship. The United States is just part of a four-way conversation, also hoping to promote these goals.
These are goals in general that Sri Lanka should share. It’s a democracy, it’s a maritime trading nation, and so we hope we’re able to work together to promote those goals.

Q The Sri Lankan government has repeatedly said that its foreign policy is non-aligned and neutral. So how acceptable is this position to the United States?

Well, Sri Lanka is a sovereign nation and the Sri Lankan people really need to decide how to manage their relationships with other countries. We’ve always expressed the view that we hope that Sri Lanka and for any other country, that their relationships can be open, transparent and mutually beneficial. We believe that’s the kind of relationship the United States has with Sri Lanka. And more than that, that we do have a partnership, and a partnership should be a two-way street. One that allows for a frank exchange of views, collaboration around your values and interests, and I would even suggest mutual assistance. Our relationship spans more than 70 years. For 60 of those years we have been providing development assistance to Sri Lanka, supporting just about every sector from agriculture to education to health to housing, water sanitation, the environment, micro enterprise support, you name it and I think we’ve been there providing support, trying to put Sri Lankans in the driver’s seat, endeavoring to lift lives, build communities and establish self-sufficiency. So we’re very committed to a relationship that is more than a transaction. One that is really a partnership. So that’s how we view our bilateral ties.

Q When we talk about Sri Lanka-US relations it is multifaceted and there are various
aspects. When you look at the overarching quality of the relationship, how interrelated are
these aspects?

I think governance, economic growth, inclusive economic growth and security cooperation, things like protecting sea lanes and inclusive economic zones or enabling disaster response. All of these are intertwined interests, and the United States does have a broad set of interests in the Indo-Pacific. Again, you noted I mentioned some of those earlier in terms of the principles and values like freedom of navigation. All that relates to our security cooperation and also [inaudible] where it [calls] for democratic governance.

So I think that these are interrelated aspects and that as democracies the United States and Sri Lanka really should be sharing common goals. And we can work together to promote good governance, the rule of law and economic growth and of course we’ll continue to engage with President Rajapaksa and the government to ensure that the rights of all citizens are protected, to ensure and encourage Sri Lanka’s prosperity, and to protect its sovereignty.

The government of Sri Lanka has committed to the UN sustainable development goals and I would note that they also cover this broad range of issues and I’m sure a key part of that is that you can’t just work on one, you have to work on all of them because they are, exactly as you said, interrelated.

Q Some people raise concerns that Sri Lanka is heavily dependent on China for financial assistance and cooperation. In the present context of Sri Lanka facing financial crisis how can the United States help this country?

Assistance from the United States doesn’t have to be repaid. We don’t give loans, really. We’re here to help Sri Lankans help themselves and to build capacity and resilience across an array of sectors and where Sri Lanka needs it most. And we’ve had a long term commitment to Sri Lanka’s economic potential over the last 70 years, with real results. The stock exchange, the [Spike] Council. These are things that came from development assistance efforts sponsored by the United States. A lot of job training. Right now we’re focused on developing Sri Lanka’s small and medium enterprises. We have also been there responding to emergencies that could have damaged Sri Lanka’s economy even further. You mentioned the tsunami earlier, 2004. Flooding in 2017. And of course right now the pandemic.

So we recently supplied 1.5 million Moderna vaccines to Sri Lanka at no cost. It came through the COVAX facility, but they came from the United States’ vaccine reserves and they’re part of our
ongoing commitment.

In addition to that we have provided over US$8 million to address COVID either directly or trying to help cushion the blow to the economy going forward. We’ve also had some additional in-kind donations – 200 portable ventilators, and over 500,000 rapid diagnostic tests.
So our approach is one of helping Sri Lankans at the core, to build capacity to both grow the economy but also manage and respond to the crises that come including the most recent one we’re facing which is the pandemic.

Q Recently you engaged in a discussion with Basil Rajapaksa, the Finance Minister. What kind of tangible progress has been made since then based on what was discussed?

We had a very good meeting with the Finance Minister. It was very cordial. And we had an opportunity to talk about investment, a topic of our conversation here for the most part. We talked about some of the challenges facing investors, the limitations and the need for that open, transparent environment and of course limiting investors’ exposure to risk and hopefulness that as Sri Lanka works on its business environment that it can adhere to best practices and high international norms.

I’d like to see Sri Lanka attract high quality investors and of course expressed that view to the Finance Minister. I also shared with him what I have said publicly also around concerns about the Sri Lankan economy. It’s not in the best of health at the moment. It’s very difficult times globally because of the pandemic and of course I believe that part of the solution is for Sri Lanka to utilize the resources presented by the International Monetary Fund, or the IMF.

Sri Lanka is a member state of the IMF. Sri Lanka and 188 other countries make up that membership and the IMF was established to fight poverty but also ensure global financial stability and help address global employment needs. So this is exactly the kind of tool that Sri Lanka needs I think at this moment. So we had a conversation about that and I continue to urge the government to leverage the resources of the IMF as a member state and take advantage of the tools that can come to assess Sri Lanka’s economic performance and look, of course, at how to engage in changes that would build a much firmer economic foundation going forward.

Q Finally I would like to ask about the situation unfolding in Afghanistan. The USA is pulling out from Afghanistan after two decades. What will be the next role of the USA as far as regional peace is concerned?

I would say, like many I have also been watching events unfold. Many of the images coming from Afghanistan are deeply disturbing. I understand the situation is stabilized at the airport now and evacuations are ongoing and we are coordinating with Afghanistan’s neighbors and other countries in the region along with the broader
international community.

We want to make sure there’s an aligned approach to the evolving situation and I think we’re seeing results of this effort with a statement that went out a day or two ago. I think now 106 countries have joined, calling on parties to respect and facilitate the safe and orderly departure of foreign nationals and Afghans who want to leave.
The UN Security Council has also put out a statement calling for a cessation to all hostilities and establishing through inclusive negotiations a new government. I think these are the immediate next steps and we’ve got to work through what’s obviously a tremendously difficult situation at the moment, but we should do this collaboratively within the region and the broader international community.

Q Have you engaged /contacted the Sri Lankan Government in this regard?

Yes, we’ve had conversations to share our views and concerns with the Sri Lankan government and they’ll just be part of that ongoing
global dialogue.

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India initiates talks with Taliban Government

India initiated talks with the Taliban militants, the Indian foreign ministry said, which marks the first formal diplomatic engagement since the hardline Islamist group took over Afghanistan.

Indian envoy Deepak Mittal met Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, the head of the Taliban’s Political Office in Doha, at the request of the Taliban, the foreign ministry said.

The foreign ministry added that the two sides discussed the safety of Indians left behind in Afghanistan and the Indian envoy also conveyed India’s fears that anti-India militants could use Afghanistan’s soil to mount attacks.

“The Taliban representative assured the ambassador that these issues would be positively addressed,” the foreign ministry said.

Trial-at-bar appointed to hear case over Easter Sunday attacks

A trial-at-bar has been appointed to hear the case over the Easter Sunday attacks.

The Attorney General had requested the Chief Justice to appoint a special three-member high court bench to hear the case.

Accordingly, the Chief Justice has appointed the three-member bench led by High Court Judge Damith Thotawatte.

Judges Amal Ranaraja and Navaratne Marasinghe will serve as the remaining judges in the trial-at-bar.

A local group that allegedly pledged allegiance to the ISIL (ISIS) group were blamed for the six near-simultaneous suicide bomb attacks which hit three churches and three hotels on April 21, 2019.

Another suicide bomber who had entered a fourth hotel left without setting off his bomb but later died by suicide after detonating his explosives at a different location.

The Attorney General has filed 23,270 charges against 25 people in connection with the attacks killed 269 people.

Cardinal refuses to meet Foreign Minister until conditions are met

The Archbishop of Colombo, His Eminence Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith has refused to meet Foreign Minister, Professor G.L Peiris, until certain conditions are met.

Reverend Father Cyril Gamini Fernando, the Parish Priest of St. Anne’s church, Kurana (Negombo) said that Peiris had written to the Cardinal requesting for a meeting.

The Cardinal has responded saying he is willing to meet provided certain conditions are met.

Reverend Father Cyril Gamini Fernando said that the Cardinal has asserted he will not meet the Foreign Minister until the conditions are met.

Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith has informed the Foreign Minister in writing that the investigations into the Easter Sunday attack must be conducted in a manner that wins the confidence of the public.

The Cardinal has said that in order to win the confidence of the Catholic community and the general public, the Government must implement the recommendations in the final report of the Presidential Commission on the Easter Sunday attacks.

Reverend Father Cyril Gamini Fernando said that recent statements made in the media, including by the Police, with regards to the Easter Sunday attacks, does not build confidence in the investigations into the attacks.

As a result, the Cardinal has said he will meet the Foreign Minister only after confidence is built with regards to the investigations into the Easter Sunday attacks.

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Special meeting to decide on next week’s Parliamentary proceedings

Despite the next special sitting of Parliament taking place on Monday (06), the Government and the Leader of the House Dinesh Gunawardena have proposed to include an additional special Parliamentary day.

This decision was made as the Government has to answer questions of current importance.

The motion was moved by Gunawardena to the Committee on Parliamentary Affairs held on 5th August, and was approved by the members of the Government as well as the Opposition in the Committee. Accordingly, it was decided to declare September 06 and 27 as Special Parliamentary Days.

Gunawardena iterated that only certain unanswered questions will be allowed to be raised during the sittings.

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Daily COVID case count climbs to 3,828 as deaths spike by 215

The Epidemiology Unit of the Health Ministry reports that another 944 persons have tested positive for COVID-19 in Sri Lanka, moving the daily total of new cases to 3.828.

This brings the total number of confirmed cases of coronavirus reported in the country to 444,130.

As many as 376,216 recoveries have been confirmed in Sri Lanka since the outbreak of the pandemic.

The Epidemiology Unit’s data showed that 58,729 active cases are currently under medical care.

Meanwhile, Sri Lanka has registered 215 more COVID-19 related fatalities on Tuesday (August 31).

The new development has pushed the official death toll from the virus outbreak in Sri Lanka to 9,400.

According to the data released by the Department of Government Information, the latest victims confirmed today include 115 males and 100 females.

Reportedly, among the victims two are aged below 30 years, 46 victims are aged between 30-59 years and 167 others aged 60 and above.

Opposition slams govt. for imposing emergency

Opposition political parties today came out against the imposing of emergency and urged the government to reverse the decision.

Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) General Secretary Ranjith Madduma Bandara said the emergency imposed under the National Security Ordinance does not have any relevance to the current situation. “The distribution of essential commodities have run into trouble because of inefficacy and due to bad management. Distribution of essential goods have not come to standstill because of any security reasons. Therefore imposing an emergency is not relevant at this moment,” he said.

“Therefore we urge the government to reverse the decision to impose emergency and make use of Disaster Management Bill of 2005 which is more appropriate for today especial when there is a pandemic situation,” he added.

TNA MP M. A. Sumanthiran also expressed similar sentiments where he said emergency laws would give more power to the President and the government.

“Government should have got a health emergency Bill approved by Parliament,” he said.

UNP General Secretary Palitha Range Bandara who had a different view said one has to be practical rather than imposing regulations under various laws. “One has to take practical steps to ensure smooth distribution of essential items. Laws seem to be not followed in this country and the government is losing its control,” he said.

“Government should hand over the state machinery to capable persons,” he added.

Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic policy setting: Cohesion or confusion? By Dushni Weerakoon

The hike in policy interest rates by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) in August 2021 marks a shift from stimulus to exit strategies in the pandemic era. Such recalibrations globally are focused on how to tackle the historically large debt-to-GDP ratios that the COVID-19 pandemic leaves in its wake.

At end 2020, Advanced Economies (AEs) on average had amassed debt to the tune of 120% of their GDP, with Emerging Markets Economies (EMEs) trailing some distance at 65% of GDP. As the spotlight moves, the full impacts of the macroeconomic policy measures, hitherto obscured by the urgency to deal with the health crisis, are now coming under greater scrutiny.

Sri Lanka’s debt metrics make an orderly exit more difficult

Many countries, especially AEs, exercised their ‘monetary sovereignty’ to create and print their own money to support stimulus efforts. They have done so through coordinated monetary/fiscal policies – i.e. using monetary policy to keeping borrowing costs low while fiscal authorities provide back-stop assurance. Some are better positioned to manage the inherent risks and conflicts of interest that are involved in this exercise.

AEs have an advantage as issuers of reserve currencies with global demand and historically low interest rates; EMEs with limited exposure to foreign currency-denominated debt and holding comfortable stockpiles of reserves are less exposed to disruptive tail events.

Such countries can bring down their debt ratios if they are able to maintain nominal GDP growth persistently above the average interest rates that they pay on their debt – i.e. the growth-corrected interest rate (r-g) whereby countries can run modest primary deficits and still have a stable or falling debt-to-GDP ratio.

Sri Lanka is not similarly positioned. Its debt metrics point to high vulnerabilities – a high debt-to-GDP ratio of 101% of GDP, large exposure to foreign currency-denominated debt, and a hefty foreign debt repayment schedule. Under these conditions, the threat from exercising monetary sovereignty was always self-evident. A depreciating currency, notwithstanding distortionary controls on imports and capital flows, worsens the debt vulnerabilities.

Domestic and foreign debts are hardly similar. Given Sri Lanka’s debt metrics and the fundamental economic imbalances that have generated them, simple accounting identities do not always offer very plausible solutions. If the exchange rate depreciates, it adds to the real value of outstanding debt, relative to the size of the economy, even if interest rates remain modest. Further, shocks like COVID-19 raise risk premia, and marginal borrowing costs can rise suddenly and sharply, cutting countries abruptly out of financial markets.

Crucial to instil and retain macroeconomic policy credibility

Short of distortionary measures such as inflating debt away or maintaining an overvalued currency, a primary surplus is needed to stop the public debt-to-GDP ratio from rising and an even larger surplus is needed to reduce it. Improving the primary budget balance calls for tax increases or public spending cuts that are unpopular and have upfront costs. Given the government’s unwillingness to go down this path, households and firms will be required instead to bear the cost through higher interest rates that will affect their consumption and investments.

Higher interest rates in this instance will also not ‘pull in’ foreign capital to firm up the exchange rate given the risk premia on the currency front as depreciating pressure deepens. With reserves in hand to cover barely two months of imports, the forex market will continue to face volatility and instability until a steady stream of capital inflows, beyond short-term swaps, emerge. Until such time, a depreciating domestic currency will increase the interest burden as calculated in that currency. If debt servicing interest rate costs are pushed persistently above the economic growth rate, Sri Lanka’s debt burden will grow steadily even in the absence of new borrowing – a context sometimes called a ‘debt spiral’.

Without a clearly spelt-out debt sustainability path, Sri Lanka seems to be placing all its bets on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to ease external pressures and revive economic growth. For a successful outcome – i.e. productivity gains to drive long-term growth – the type of FDI matters. The more desirable is efficiency-seeking FDI, but this is also harder to attract.

For now, a policy environment of import curbs and capital controls is more likely to see strategic-seeking infrastructure-led FDI. The latter runs the risk of switching resources to non-tradable sectors – reducing the availability of external financing over the longer term – and the prospect of a short-lived growth burst as before in the post-war years. Crucially too, the sole reliance on FDI leaves Sri Lanka at the mercy of developments beyond its control.

Rather, efforts to attract FDI should be coupled with building effective policy strategies that instil and maintain credibility. Indeed, this is all the more important as Sri Lanka appears to be firmly against an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. IMF loan amounts are small and it no longer has much sway on debt relief with much of EME foreign debt held by private institutional investors and China.

An IMF programme is mostly useful in firming up sovereign credit ratings and reviving the sentiments of investors. But investor sentiments can also improve if governments put forward and implement credible policy strategies.

By contrast, the CBSL’s policy rate adjustment to anchor expectations, for instance, will not stick if direct financing of fiscal spending is to continue under yield control measures. Instead, market convictions on the credibility of the policy mix will drive economic fundamentals. As Sri Lanka readies to transition out of pandemic-related emergency support, some notion of fiscal and debt sustainability to anchor confidence should be the priority in Budget 2022 preparations.

(This blog is based on the comprehensive chapter on “Economic Performance and Outlook: Managing the Crisis and Promoting Recovery” in IPS’ forthcoming annual flagship publication ‘Sri Lanka: The State of Economy 2021’. Link to blog: https://www.ips.lk/talkingeconomics/2021/08/30/sri-lankas-macroeconomic-policy-setting-cohesion-or-confusion/)

[Dushni Weerakoon is the Executive Director of the Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) and Head of its Macroeconomic Policy research. She joined IPS in 1994 after obtaining her PhD, and has written and published widely on macroeconomic policy, regional trade integration and international economics. She has extensive experience working in policy development committees and official delegations of the Government of Sri Lanka. Dushni Weerakoon holds a BSc in Economics with First Class Honours from the Queen’s University of Belfast, U.K., and an MA and PhD in Economics from the University of Manchester, U.K.]

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Lockdown costing billions – FT.LK

A day of lockdown in Sri Lanka causes a negative impact of Rs. 22.4 billion, or $ 112 million, according to the economic projection model developed by the Imperial College.

It estimates the 10-day lockdown as of 30 August to have had an impact of $ 1.12 billion, or 1.3%, of GDP (Rs. 224 billion) whilst a four-week lockdown till 18 September would cost $ 1.67 billion, or 1.9% (Rs. 334 billion). A six-week lockdown ending 2 October followed by gradual relaxation would cost the economy $ 2.22 billion, or 2.5%, of GDP (over Rs. 444 billion).

The estimate was shared by the Independent Technical Expert Group following its sixth meeting held last week.

The Group’s chair is WHO Representative to Sri Lanka Dr. Alaka Singh and its facilitator is WHO Consultant and WHO Director-General’s Special Envoy For COVID-19 Preparedness and Response for the South East Asia Region Dr. Palitha Abeykoon.

The Experts Group following the sixth meeting recommended that the ongoing lockdown should be extended till 18 September.

“Overall, global and local evidence indicates that economies bounce back quickly once stringencies are removed,” the Experts Group said.

It said maintaining stringency to reduce transmission, caseload and deaths will enable quicker economic recovery.

It also noted that the current classification of Sri Lanka is ‘Red’ which adversely affects tourism. It said the ‘Green’ status (UK) requires daily cases less than 950 and a test positivity rate less than 2.5%.

“Extending the stringency measures would reverse the current trajectory and move Sri Lanka towards ‘amber’ and achieving ‘green’ status by end of the year,” the Experts group noted.

Citing a Monash University study, the Experts Group said extending lockdowns past 31 August was projected to reduce deaths from COVID-19. If the lockdowns are extended to 18 September and 2 October respectively, 7,500 and 10,000 deaths can be prevented relative to a release of lockdown on 31 August.

In the first week of the latest quarantine curfew, a record 1,188 deaths and 34,504 new cases were reported. A further 9,208 persons tested positive over the weekend. Yesterday a further 4,562 active cases were detected bringing the total to 55,098. The death toll rose to a highest ever daily tally of 216 on Sunday increasing total fatalities to 8,991.

Health experts and civil society groups have criticised the Government for being less stringent in the current quarantine curfew phase though officials have insisted a complete lockdown isn’t possible given the need for essential services to operate.

The Experts Group listed crucial enabling factors as saving lives, key adjustments in service delivery to care for cases, effective triage system supported by health professionals, optimising the home management protocols and monitoring of hypoxia, accelerating vaccination, and targeting the vulnerable to be given the most effective vaccines.

Among recommendations to prevention of transmission are the extension of strict social measures to reduce transmission; crucial household and individual compliance; reduce mobility by better targeting the measures that should be tightened using mobility data from Google Maps, mobile phone data and Facebook data, to identify the most important measures and plan in advance for a systematic re-opening of sectors, regions, and a return of employment categories.

The Experts Group also recommended the need for establishing safety nets by strengthening social support systems by engaging with temples and religious groups, NGOs, civil society etc. (i.e. a national mobilisation effort) to overcome needs of lower income groups, led by the Government (and supported by development partners as needed).

Other members of the Experts Group are Consultant in Community Medicine and Former Chief Epidemiologist in Sri Lanka and College of Community Physicians in Sri Lanka President Dr. Nihal Abeysinghe; Public Health Specialist and Sarvodaya President Dr. Vinya Ariyaratne; Senior Professor of Pharmacology at the University of Kelaniya and Sri Lanka Association of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics President Prof. Asita de Silva; Consultant Immunologist and Head of the Department of Immunology – MRI Dr. Rajiva de Silva; Centre for Clinical Management of Dengue and Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever Clinical Head, Consultant Paediatrician, Association of Medical Specialists President Dr. LakKumar Fernando; Consultant Neuro Physician and Sri Lanka Medical Association President Dr. Padma Gunaratne; Consultant Physician and University of Colombo Prof. Emeritus of Medicine Prof. Saroj Jayasinghe; Prof. in Medical Education at the Department of Medical Education at the Faculty of Medicine and SLMA Former President Prof. Indika Karunathilake; Professor and Department of Immunology and Molecular Medicine Head at Sri Jayewardenepura University Prof. Neelika Malavige;, University of Colombo Professor Emeritus, Public Health Expert and former WHO Malaria expert Prof. Kamini Mendis; School of Public Health Chair/Professor at The University of Hong Kong, Faculty of Medicine, Hong Kong Prof. Malik Peiris; Prof in Community Medicine – Faculty of Medicine at the University of Colombo Prof. Manuj Weerasinghe; National Institute of Infectious Diseases Consultant Physician and Past President of the College of Physicians Dr. Ananda Wijewickrama; Former Professor of Community Medicine at the Faculty of Medicine – University of Colombo Dr. Lalini Rajapaksa; and Professor of Psychiatry – Keele University, UK, Emeritus Professor of Global Mental Health – Kings College London, and NIFS Chair Prof. Athula Sumathipala; and several WHO officials.