Sri Lanka’s election commission has taken what appears to be the first tentative step towards a decisive round of local government elections due early March, and though the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) is far from pumped, its many challengers in the opposition, analysts say, may also be prematurely counting their chickens.
While its detractors are determined to drag the government kicking and screaming through the electoral process in the new year, the result they’re counting on may not quite come to pass; at least not in the way they might expect.
The opposition, namely the main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and the leftist National People’s Power (NPP), has accused the government of delaying the polls, cowering in fear of a seething public. Refuting the allegation, the SLPP has claimed that it is in fact the opposition that is quietly shuddering at the thought of revealing their inadequacies and their failure to capitalise on the eroded popularity of the once mighty Pohottuwa.
Either way, with the country still reeling from its worst currency crisis in decades albeit achieving a semblance of stability over the last few months, the outcome of an election at this juncture is becoming increasingly hard to predict. New developments, both political and economic, have unhelpfully complicated what would otherwise have been an easy call just a few moons ago and the proposed election may not turn out to be the convenient “litmus test” that many are expecting it to be.
While the prospects of a recovery in the new year are better than what they were towards the end of 2022 – with headline inflation now on a downward trajectory – slow progress in restructuring debt and securing an eagerly awaited International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout package, proposed utility tariff hikes, and a sharp increase in personal income tax have done little to improve the public mood.
However, in the absence of scientific opinion polling, any pronouncements on the popularity or lack thereof of Sri Lanka’s mainstream political parties remain conjecture at best; and, though there is no gainsaying that the SLPP has seen better days, who will be vanquished and who will emerge victorious at the upcoming polls – assuming they take place at all and assuming the public even has the appetite for an election – is still anybody’s guess.
Unsurprisingly, these uncertainties have done little to dissuade parties on either side of the aisle from goading each other to enter a 10-billion rupee contest that no one – least of all the country – is adequately prepared for, and it’s looking more and more like the government is resigned to the possibility of a fight from which it will not walk away unscathed.
It’s not for a lack of trying, however. One cabinet minister has already gone on record claiming that an election at this point will mean Sri Lanka won’t have enough funds for rice. Various other government spokesmen have suggested that the country cannot afford an election of any kind. United National Party (UNP) MP Vajira Abeywardena, who entered parliament after his party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe vacated the UNP’s sole seat for a more plush office near the Galle Face Green, said the proposed local polls would be bad for tourism.
“If an election is held at this time the country will slide into another massive crisis,” said Abeywardena.
Meanwhile, a writ petition has been filed at Sri Lanka’s apex court by a retired military official seeking an order suspending the local government elections citing the country’s economic situation. A spokesman for the SJB told reporters on Wednesday that the petitioner is known to former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who was forced to resign in July after a wave of mass protests. The Pivithuru Hela Urumaya (PHU), which now functions as an independent group in parliament, has also questioned the need for the petition in question to cite the finance ministry secretary as a respondent. PHU leader Udaya Gammanipla suggested that the entire exercise was a tactic to delay the election, as part of a screenplay already written.
“How is the finance ministry secretary a respondent in a case on postponing an election? According to the script, the secretary shows up in court and says ‘we don’t have the funds for polls, so we can’t hold this election now’,” he said.
SLPP parliamentarian S M Chandrasena has rejected this claim. He told reporters on Wednesday that the Pohottuwa has no desire to postpone elections and that the party has already commenced work in anticipation of soon-to-be-called local government polls. The Anuradhapura district MP insisted that his party is better prepared for elections than any in the opposition.
“The SLPP has taken measures to sign nominations on January 07, 08 and 09. I saw reports about a colonel who had petitioned the Supreme Court regarding the local government polls. We consider it a petition by a citizen. We don’t know what the verdict will be.
“As a party, we’ve already commenced our election work at the party headquarters, before any of the opposition parties that are shouting and demanding an election,” he said.
For its part, the election commission has announced that nominations for the local government elections will be accepted from January 18 to 21. Election Commission Chairman Nimal Punchihewa told EconomyNext on Wednesday, however, that a date for the election can only be announced after nominations have been accepted.
Notices calling for nominations for 340 local government bodies were also released by district secretaries on Wednesday. Members to the local government bodies need to be appointed by March 20, for which elections need to be held before March 10.
However well-intentioned, the election commission’s announcement on Wednesday was seen with scepticism by the main opposition. SJB MP Mayantha Dissanayake claimed at a press conference on Wednesday that the government would like to delay the polls by another year.
“How they plan to do this is by getting the election commission to call for nominations but getting the district secretaries or returning officers to claim that the conditions are not right for an election in their respective districts,” claimed Dissanayake.
President Wickremesinghe, meanwhile, has informed the UNP that he intends to stay out of any election campaigns connected with the local government polls – a likely indication that elections are indeed coming. Though sources claim that the president is not too keen on local government polls – having shown a preference for an early presidential election instead – his message to his own party demonstrates a reluctant acceptance that he may not have a choice in the matter.
A UNP statement said quoting Wickremesinghe that he is mandated only to pull the country out of the abyss it currently finds itself in and not to engage in electioneering, though his critics would take issue with the choice of the word ‘mandate’. His participation will strictly be limited to heading a UNP’s Working Committee meeting to decide whether or not the party should contest. Wickremesinghe also said that, in the event the UNP decides to contest, 40 percent of the nominations should be new faces. More revealingly, the president said that funds have only been allocated for the salaries of 4,000 local government representatives and the remaining 4,000 must indicate whether they wish to work without pay.
The last remark is in reference to a proposal by Wickremesinghe to cut down the number of local councillors by half: from a staggering 8,000 to 4,000. Opposition legislators have claimed that the lengthy delimitation process that this would require is yet another delay tactic by the government.
The fact remains, however, that cash-strapped Sri Lanka cannot afford to keep paying salaries and other benefits to such vast numbers of elected officials. Restructuring the country’s bloated public sector is central to Wickremesinghe’s reform agenda, and whether politically motivated or not, analysts say any move to cut down wasteful offices even at the local level would be welcome. But time is running out, and chances are that the local government elections will be held sometime in March this year without any earth-shattering changes. Whether this highly anticipated event will be of any real consequence, however, remains to be seen.
New allegiances are being forged behind the scenes virtually every day, and, according to a number of analysts, there is no clear victor even at this late stage. Public opinion can turn on a dime no matter what social media sentiments may indicate at present and, depending on how successful or not the shaky — some might call unholy — Wickremesinghe-Pohottuwa alliance is in turning the economy around while also delivering a permanent solution to the ethnic issue by February 04 — a tall order if ever there was one — things could still go any number of ways. Nothing, it appears, is set in stone.
