Sri Lanka’s foreign policy: Clash of ideology and realpolitik

Historically, Sri Lanka’s relations with the world were driven by a number of factors. The country shifted from one position to another, allying itself with different interests at different points. While policy was largely shaped by the tenets of nonalignment, this did not preclude it from seeking friendships that went beyond such imperatives. Indeed, whenever it needed help, the government of the day turned to everyone it could turn to. More often than not it got the support it wanted, and made good use of it.

Foreign policy thrived under the first three SLFP administrations (1956-1959, 1960-1965, and 1970-1977) and became unwieldy under the first three UNP administrations (1948-1956, 1965-1970, and 1977-1989). This is not to say that all was well under the SLFP and all was bad under the UNP. But on a balanced note, the SLFP tried to implement a more consistent and far-reaching set of policies, an endeavour it largely succeeded in.

The UNP, on the other hand, tended to define itself in relation to British economic domination of the country, particularly in the plantations. This compelled it to privilege continuity over change. Thus, in the same period, it antagonised China, India, and Russia, confident that Whitehall and Washington would come to its assistance.

When that did not materialise and after it was routed at the polls, it began formulating foreign policy negatively, in opposition to whatever position the SLFP held; to give one example, from its initial position of hostility to India, the UNP sided with our neighbour to the north after Sirimavo Bandaranaike involved herself in the Sino-Indian War.

Arguably the most tumultuous period for our foreign relations was the J. R. Jayewardene administration. Turning away from its brief truce with India, Jayewardene’s UNP went on to antagonise that country, hoping that its alignment with the West would compensate for the loss of what was clearly a crucial friendship. Here too the underlying principle seems to have been one of opposition to the SLFP’s stance: since the Bandaranaike government had got so close to India, the UNP saw nothing wrong in alienating it.

Jayewardene’s biographers, K. M. de Silva and Howard Wriggins, have attempted to pin the blame for what followed on the machinations of Indian intelligence services and South Indian politicians. But their version of events ignores the UNP regime’s actions, including its abandonment of the tenets of nonalignment and its mess-up in the 1983 riots. It also fails to give sufficient weight to the fact that Indian intelligence ramped up support for Tamil militants after those riots, and that by reducing the country’s presence at the Non-Aligned Movement, the UNP exposed it to the pressures of regional power rivalries.

Different scholars give different explanations as to why the UNP behaved the way it did over the country’s external relations. Many of them agree that its policies were less successful than the SLFP’s, but almost all of them suggest that this was because of factors outside the party’s control. For instance, one scholar, quoting Jayewardene, contends that the country opposed the Soviet Union because the Soviet Union vetoed the island’s entry to the United Nations, while another distinguishes between a pro-Western and “West-inclined” policy – whatever that means – contending that the Senanayake government touted the latter line, supposedly out of pragmatic considerations.

Almost none of these accounts notes what is, to me, an intriguing paradox. How is it that the UNP, a party that prides itself today on its “internationalist” outlook, failed to build up a truly internationalist foreign policy? How is it that this task came to be fulfilled by the SLFP, a party the UNP-allied bourgeoisie depicts today as an insular outfit?

To ponder these questions, I think, is to assume that to be internationalist requires one to be Westernised and a member of the Westernised elite, indeed to hold political positions in line with such an upbringing. But is that necessarily the case?

The Westernised bourgeoisie in Sri Lanka, by and large, did not cut themselves off from the wellsprings of the country’s past. To be Westernised was not necessarily to be immune to the historical developments of the land. Local elites may have been indifferent to the plight of the poorer masses, but this did not blind them to the practices and beliefs of those masses. Hence, in the same vein with which the D. S. Senanayake government could make the defence establishment and Foreign Service subservient to British interests, it could also whip up perennial fears of Indian domination to win elections.

If ever a cosmopolitan outlook did enter the country in the 20th century, then, it was not through the colonial elite. This is not as puzzling as it may seem. Opposition to colonial rule and lack of official patronage combined to politicise popular religion, entrenching a revival among the Sinhala middle class. Mindful of these developments, the bourgeoisie drifted from the Anglicanism of their youth to Buddhism, seeing no rift between their comprador economic interests and the populist inclinations of their new faith.

With the entry of the Left, a cosmopolitan outlook finally made its way to the country. Well educated and unapologetically radical, the stalwarts of the LSSP and the Communist Party sought to transform the country into a modern nation-state through a socialist programme. But the comprador elite, fearful of the dangers these formations posed to their interests, connived to whip up popular ethno-religious sentiment against them.

That these developments extended to the country’s foreign policy hardly needs mentioning. As Hector Abhayavardhana has noted, despite its “formal secular character” the Ceylonese State “succumbed to the need of its ruling politicians to exploit the religious susceptibilities of the masses for political purposes.” So long as the ruling class felt that they had satisfied these susceptibilities, they could go ahead with policies that perpetuated the island’s status as a semi-independent plantation colony tied to the imperial master, Britain.

For the most, the Sinhala middle-class acquiesced in this state of affairs. They failed to realise that while the comprador elite could satisfy their cultural demands, they could not transform the country into a modern nation-state. It was the Left that took on such a task and emphasised the link between cultural and political independence, the latter defined in terms of declaring Ceylon as a Republic, taking it out of the Commonwealth, and wresting control of the means of production from foreign ownership.

The UNP’s foreign policy in its first 10 years of power was more or less the policy of a party learning how to deal with the world for the very first time. Tied to the capitals of the West, it could not think beyond allegiance to the West. That it made use of cultural rhetoric to define its relations with other countries was perhaps to be expected: we have it from J. R. Jayewardene, for instance, that D. S. Senanayake believed he would be reborn “to help in the fight against Communism.” Such doctrinaire thinking could not last for long: after the UNP finalised the Rubber-Rice Pact with Beijing, its officials drew a line between the Soviets and the Chinese on the grounds that to ignore the latter “would be unrealistic.”

After it joined hands with the SLFP, the Left managed to divert the country’s foreign policy to a more progressive direction, basing it not merely on nonalignment but also a sharp perception of political developments abroad. Mervyn de Silva and Hector Abhayavardhana worked on the foreign policy plank of the United Front’s 1970 manifesto. That policy was based not on an abstract friendship with everyone, but on a recognition of our place in the world and our obligation to the world at large: a position Dayan Jayatilleka described as “the high point of an independent international perspective” in Sri Lanka.

Such a perspective could not arise from the ranks of an elite steeped in a compradorist and colonial-minded ideology. It had to come from a more internationalist mindset, of the sort that the Left possessed. This may surprise those who associate modernity with cultural or political Westernisation, but it is true: that is why, in most former colonies and dependent states, be it India or Cuba, the dependent elite produced no real artists, scientists, thinkers, intellectuals – or for that matter, diplomats. That is also why Fidel Castro appreciated the need to maintain his country’s profile abroad, and chose not to close down its diplomatic service even after the country stopped receiving Soviet aid.

Not surprisingly, perhaps, both the UNP and the SLFP, along with the SLPP, seem to have succumbed to the insular inclinations of the dependent bourgeoisie today, partly because the Left as it once prevailed no longer exists, but also because education policies of the last four decades have managed to take us back. The situation is so bleak that, while looking up to the West, we also hold ourselves as superior to everyone else: a phenomenon that Rajiva Wijesinha dissects well in his book on Sri Lanka and Geneva.

Surprising as it may be to some, there is no contradiction between these mindsets, just as there was no contradiction between the elite’s cosmopolitan veneer and its insular cultural conditioning. In any case, whatever might account for them, such attitudes have prevented the formulation of a Sri Lankan foreign policy. We clearly have a long way to go in achieving this task. What is saddening, of course, is that we haven’t even started.

Kelanitissa power plant breaks down, substandard diesel could be the cause

The GT7 (115MW) of the Kelanitissa power plant has broken down last night, and substandard quality of diesel could be the cause, The Morning learns.

Speaking to The Morning today, a reliable source revealed that the fuel which was brought down could have been the main cause of the breakdown.

“Last night the trip of the GT7 plant kept going off. We believe it could be the due to the substandard quality of fuel we received recently. The plant was shut down, but in a few hours we should be re-starting it once again to see how it functions again,” the source informed.

When further questioned whether the “substandard diesel” would cause damage to the power plant, the source said that it was surely a possibility.

“Using substandard quality diesel means that the mechanical parts of the plant wears off and the generator would eventually break down. If this happens, the country might need to spend more money to fix the generator. That itself is another additional cost. The plants are running on minimum fuel and maximum capacity right now” he said.

Meanwhile, Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) spokesperson, Andrew Nawamani said that speculations about the substandard quality of fuel was not true and that the generator at the Kelanitissa was old and had technical problems.

“The Kelanitissa plant is very old. It is like an old vehicle. Sometimes, this happens and when it happened yesterday, we managed to fix it and link it back to the grid. We found out that there was a blockage in one of the valves and that was immediately rectified. The generator is linked back into the grid and in a few hours we can start it again when the demand arises,” said Nawamini.

He further added that the Sapugaskanda plant is soon running out of fuel once again and the negotiations are currently taking place to obtain more fuel from the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC).

“The Sapugaskanda plant generator A has only about another 8 hours worth of fuel. The generator B can pull through until late evening. The CEB is currently negotiating with the CPC to get more fuel. We don’t know the outcome, but we are doing our best to run the plants with the diesel we have,” Nawamini concluded.

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UK’s Lord Ahmad stresses on need for progress of human rights in Sri Lanka

UK Minister of State Foreign Commonwealth and Development Affairs (Central and South Asia, Commonwealth, UN, Human Rights) Lord Tariq Ahmad of Wimbledon, during his three-day visit to Sri Lanka, met a series of officials, including President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, to discuss key issues revolving around human rights.

He met President Rajapaksa at the Presidential Secretariat yesterday (20). On his official Twitter account, Lord Ahmad stated that the purpose of the meeting was “to discuss global challenges including climate change and economic recovery from Covid-19”.

He further stated: “I emphasised the need for the GoSL (Government of Sri Lanka) to make progress on human rights, reconciliation, and justice and accountability, in line with the UN HRC (United Nations Human Rights Council) process and the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals).”

The President’s Media Division, in a media release, stated that Lord Ahmad had noted that Sri Lanka’s programme to empower human rights is making great strides. He had further stated that Sri Lanka will be able to resolve all issues pertaining to human rights by moving forward with a pragmatic approach to further strengthen it.

Further, Lord Ahmad toured the northern and eastern parts of the island on Wednesday (19).

During the visit, Lord Ahmad had held discussions with Northern Province Governor Jeevan Thiagarajah on the plans for the Northern Province, his priorities, and the need for justice and accountability, and had spoken to Eastern Province Governor Anuradha Yahampath about the Government’s priorities to address key concerns and livelihoods, access to justice, and integrated community relations in the Eastern Province.

Lord Ahmad also visited and paid respect to the ancient Hindu temple Thirukoneswaram while touring Trincomalee.

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Tourist establishments told to accept only foreign exchange

Registered tourist establishments have been instructed to accept only foreign exchange in respect of services rendered to persons resident outside Sri Lanka.

The instructions have been issued by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka following a decision taken by the Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

The Monetary Board has decided to adopt several policy measures with the view to strengthening macroeconomic stability.

Accordingly, the Monetary Board decided to instruct registered tourist establishments to accept foreign exchange only in respect of services rendered to persons resident outside Sri Lanka.

It has also decided to increase the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank by 50 basis points each, to 5.50 per cent and 6.50 per cent, respectively.

The Monetary Board has also decided to distribute the financing of essential import bills for fuel purchases among the licensed banks in proportion to their foreign exchange inflows, extend the payment of an additional Rs. 8.00 per US dollar for workers’ remittances paid in addition to the incentive of Rs. 2.00 per US dollar offered under the “Incentive Scheme on Inward Workers’ Remittances” until 30 April 2022, reimburse the transaction cost borne by Sri Lankan migrant workers through the payment of Rs. 1,000 per transaction, when remitting money to rupee accounts via licensed banks and other formal channels with effect from 01 February 2022 and introduce higher interest rates for both foreign currency and rupee denominated deposits of migrant workers.

The Monetary Board was of the view that the new measures will curtail the possible build up of underlying demand pressures in the economy, which would also help ease pressures in the external sector, thus promoting greater macroeconomic stability.

In keeping with this policy stance, the Central Bank expects a corresponding increase in interest rates, particularly in deposit rates, thereby encouraging savings, while discouraging excessive consumption, which also fuels imports.

Therefore, financial institutions are urged to swiftly pass on this increase to deposit rates of the customers.

Moreover, the anticipated adjustment in market interest rates will facilitate the reduction in the Treasury bill holdings of the Central Bank through increased market subscriptions, as enunciated in the Six-Month Road Map for Ensuring Macroeconomic and Financial System Stability.

Meanwhile, the materialisation of the expected foreign exchange inflows through bilateral arrangements and other import financing arrangements with friendly countries are expected to ensure a healthy level of gross official reserves in the period ahead and further strengthen the external sector in the economy.

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JVP vows to revert agreements signed to sell state assets:Anura

Giving assurance that the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and its Trade Unions would not remain silent over selling state assets, JVP Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake said today they would come forward to revert the agreements which had been signed to hand over the Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm to India and transferring of shares of the Kerawalapitiya LNG Plant to a US Company.

He said they would rally round the people to expel the governments that sell state assets and form a government which could manage the state resources under state patronage.

Speaking at a protest march organised against selling of Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm to India, he said plans were afoot to sell commercial lands and buildings in Colombo to foreign Companies.

“Government is planning to sell 13 acres of the land belonging to the Colombo Port to a Chinese Company. Eastern Jetty of the Colombo Port was sold to India’s Adani Group of Companies.The agreement was signed to sell Trincomalee Oil Tank Farm to India on January 6. We will fight to revert these agreements,” he said.

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Gazette on extending retirement age to 65 issued

An extraordinary gazette notification was issued yesterday, making it compulsory for all civil public servants to reach the age of 65 years of their retirement age.

The gazette notification Ref. 2263/5 was issued by the Minister of Public Services, Provincial Councils and Local Government, Janaka Bandara Tennakoon.

“Every public servant may be required to retire from the public service on or after attaining the age of 55 years. Sixty-five years of compulsory retirement for all civil public servants, other than the officers whose compulsory age of retirement is specifically defined by the Constitution or any other law, unless a decision is taken by the proper authority to retain the officer further in service. ” the gazette notofication said.

This decision is considered implemented as of January 1, 2022.

Accordingly, those who have worked in the public service and held such an office or post for a period of ten years or more, whether such office or post was permanent or not, may be entitled to receive a pension equivalent to 1/3rd of their salary.

For a period of 10 years and thereafter increased by 1/30th of the salary. For each complete year of service.

in excess of 10 years, up to a maximum of 2/3rd of the last drawn salary for 20 years of service, on the termination of his service on any ground other than inefficiency or misconduct. No commuted gratuity shall be payable to any person who is entitled to a pension, the gazette said.

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Ex-IGP Pujith informed 4 DIGs about possible terror attack

Although there was no direct information provided by then Chief of National Intelligence (CNI) Sisira Mendis and then State Intelligence Service (SIS) Director Nilantha Jayawardena regarding the Easter Sunday terror attacks of 21 April 2019, four Deputy Inspectors General of Police (DIGs) in the Western Province (WP) had received prior information about a possible terror attack from then Inspector General of Police (IGP) Pujith Jayasundara, claimed Senior DIG (SDIG) in charge of the WP Deshabandu Tennakoon.

Jayasundara had conveyed the information through a letter to then SDIG in charge of the WP Nandana Munasinghe, the latter who had then sent the same letter together with his (Munasinghe) notes, to the four DIGs in the WP including Tennakoon.

Tennakoon was testifying before the Colombo High Court Trial-at-Bar when the case against Jayasundara for his alleged failure to take action to prevent the Easter Sunday terror attacks was taken up on 18 January 2022. The case was taken up before Judges Namal Balalla, Adithya Patabendi, and Mohamed Irshadeen.

Tennakoon, who was the DIG in charge of WP – North at the time of the said terror attacks, also claimed that the letter received by his office on 11 April 2019 stating that there was a possibility of a terrorist attack in the next few days, was not serious and seemed merely another letter from the top.

He said that he had, on 3 April 2019, applied for leave from 18 to 21 April 2019, and was on leave at the time of the terror attacks. He also told the court that the DIG in charge of the WP – South covered his duties during his vacation.

The court asked the witness as to whether the Police could have prevented an attack only if they had received information about the date, time, and place of the attack. In response, the witness stated that he and other officials receive such information on a daily basis. “Although the Criminal Investigations Department had photographs of the suspects involved in the Easter Sunday terror attacks, prior to the attacks, the rest of the Police did not have such information. So even if we met the suspects face to face, it would have been hard to identify them,” he claimed.

Testifying further, Tennakoon said that the letter sent to him by Munasinghe had been received by his office on 11 April 2019. The said letter, according to Tennakoon, contained intelligence that National Thowheeth Jama’ath organisation Leader Zahran Hashim was planning to carry out a suicide terror attack. He testified that after receiving the letter, he had forwarded it to the Senior Superintendents of Police (SSPs) under him on 12 April 2019.

He was then cross-examined by Attorney-at-Law Roshan Dehiwala who appeared for Jayasundara, and Tennakoon said that there was no information regarding a possible terror attack from the then CNI and the then SIS Director. However, Jayasundara had sent information to four DIGs in the WP regarding a possible terror attack, he added.

On 21 April 2019, Easter Sunday, three churches (St. Sebastian’s Church in Katuwapitiya, St. Anthony’s Church in Kochchikade, and Zion Church in Batticaloa) and three luxury hotels in Colombo (Cinnamon Grand Colombo, The Kingsbury Colombo, and Shangri-La Colombo) were targeted in a series of co-ordinated suicide bombings. Later that day, another two bomb explosions took place at a house in Dematagoda and the Tropical Inn Lodge in Dehiwala. A total of 269 people excluding the bombers were killed in the bombings, including about 45 foreign nationals, while at least 500 were injured.

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Visiting UK minister gets wakeup call from Tamil mothers

Tamil mothers in Sri Lanka’s north and east have chided a visiting British minister for ignoring the victims of war in an apparent bid to improve bilateral trade with the debt-ridden nation that is yet to fulfil its accountability commitments.

The British Minister of State for South and Central Asia, United Nations & the Commonwealth and Prime Minister’s Special Representative on Preventing Sexual Violence in Conflict, Lord Tariq Ahmed is in an official visit ‘to discuss our shared interests and to explore future opportunities’.

On the eve of his arrival the minister penned an opinion piece in a Sri Lankan daily setting out his agenda.

“The UK has a renewed focus on the importance of the Indo Pacific region to global trade and investment, and our mutual security, wrote Lord Ahmed in Colombo based Daily Mirror.

“The UK is building a network of economic partnerships and will look to work with Sri Lanka on these issues. I am also keen to support those in Sri Lanka striving for good governance and for strengthening human rights for all citizens.”

“Set aside dark memories’

Women leaders from all the eight districts comprising the war torn north and east who are on a continuous campaign to find the truth about their loved ones who are victims of enforced disappearances were highly critical of the minister’s approach.

“It’s clear from this article that your priority is engagement with a State that has and continues to violate human rights rather than any empathy for the victims,” Association for Relatives of the Enforced Disappearances (ARED) wrote in a jointly signed letter, of which JDS has a copy.

“At no point do you mention the burning ongoing issue of enforced disappearance in Sri Lanka – the country with the second largest number of cases reported to the UN. We represent the Tamil families who lost their loved ones most recently in vast numbers, particularly at the end of the war in 2009 when they surrendered to the Sri Lankan Army. The disappeared include babies and children. No answer has been given regarding their fate.”

At least 29 children below the age of 14 have disappeared at the hands of the military according to data released by ARED. This is apparently the largest number of child disappearances in one day at one place, in Sri Lanka.

The Tamil mothers said that it is imperative that Lord Ahmed ask all those he meets on this trip, including the President of Sri Lanka, who was defence secretary during the war, about the fate of loved ones.

On the day of the UK minister’s arrival, in a policy statement after inaugurating the second session of 9th Parliament the president downplayed the issue of enforced disappearances by saying that “it is not a problem limited to one party alone”.

“What we need now is to set aside the dark memories of the past and build a secure country where all sections of the community can co-exist in peace,” said Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

‘Insulted, abused & threatened’

However, the mothers from north and east making it clear that they are not prepared to move on without answers about the tens of thousands of disappeared Tamils, did not take the British minister’s ‘passing reference to accountability’ lightly.

“Imagine if it was your child who disappeared and just asking what happened meant you were insulted, abused, threatened and told it was your fault you didn’t have more information about who took them. We have been treated with utter disrespect for the last thirteen years and your emphasis on engagement and the economy – and only a passing reference to accountability – is just another abuse we suffer.”

Prior to his arrival, Lord Ahmed had displayed an optimism that the Sri Lankan government will deal with issues of the past.

“Dealing with issues of the past is essential to lasting peace, and building an inclusive future,” said Lord Ahmed writing in Daily Mirror.

“The Geneva process provides an essential framework for all those supporting Sri Lanka’s progress on peace, accountability, reconciliation, and social cohesion following the civil war. The UK supports the promotion of human rights in Sri Lanka, for all groups of people.”

However, the Tamil mothers who did not share the visiting minister’s enthusiasm called for sanctions against perpetrators.

“Do you really think this government is going to engage seriously with the past through the Geneva process? We want the UK government to help us achieve justice using universal jurisdiction cases as Germany did for the Syrians – and in the meantime sanction the military men involved in enforced disappearance,” they said in their letter.

Sri Lanka’s Tamil MPs seek PM Modi intervention on political solution

Prominent Tamil legislators from Sri Lanka’s north and east have written to Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking India’s help in ensuring that Colombo addresses the island’s long-pending Tamil question with a lasting political solution.

A delegation of MPs, led by senior Tamil politician and Tamil National Alliance (TNA) leader R. Sampanthan, met the Indian High Commissioner in Colombo on Tuesday, and handed over the letter.

The seven-page letter foregrounds the many unkept promises, made by different governments in Colombo, to implement the 13th Amendment and go beyond it to ensure meaningful power devolution. Signed by TNA’s constituent party leaders — Mavai Senathiraja (ITAK), Dharmalingam Sithadthan (PLOTE), Selvam Adaikalanathan (TELO) — with others including former Northern Province Chief Minister C.V. Wigneswaran and former MP Suresh Premachandran (EPRLF), the letter traces past attempts, from the time of the Indo-Lanka Accord of 1987, to bring about a constitutional settlement, based on proposals developed by various expert committees.

It also mentions the interventions made by the Indian political leadership at different points, including PM Modi’s address to the Sri Lankan Parliament in 2015, when he spoke of his firm belief in “cooperative federalism”.

Federal structure

“We remain committed to a political solution based on a federal structure that recognises our right to self-determination in the areas of our historic habitation for which we repeatedly obtained a mandate from the Tamil People in the north and east where they have always been the majority. We have consistently placed this as our proposal for constitutional reform,” the signatories have said.

Flagging heightening attacks and threats to land owned by Tamils in the north and east, and language rights of Tamil-speaking people, including Malaiyaha Tamils living in the hill country, the parliamentarians have appealed to PM Modi “to urge the government of Sri Lanka to keep its promises to fully implement the provisions of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution, which ensures a measure of power devolution”.

They have also sought Indian pressure to ensure implementation of “the clear commitments made by all sections of government from 1987 onwards and enable the Tamil speaking peoples to live with dignity, self-respect, peace and security in the areas of their historic habitation, exercising their right to self-determination within the framework of a united, undivided country.”

The letter is the outcome of deliberations among Tamil MPs. Prominent Malaiyaha Tamil and Muslim leaders, who were part of the exercise earlier, exited it following differences over the emphasis of the letter. They wished to peg the letter to the 13th Amendment, which followed the 1987 Accord, and is frequently dismissed by key members of the ruling Rajapaksa administration.

However, the letter addressed to PM Modi and submitted to High Commissioner Gopal Baglay on Tuesday, also highlights what some in the Tamil polity deem limits of the 13th Amendment that established a provincial council system, envisaging devolution of powers to the provinces. The Amendment was “introduced into a Unitary Constitution making the exercise one of decentralisation instead of devolution,” the letter noted. “It is against this background that every effort made thereafter moved in the direction of surpassing the 13th Amendment towards a federal structure,” it said.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, in a policy statement in the first session of Parliament this year on Tuesday, referred to the experts’ committee appointed by him to draft a new constitution. “I hope to submit the recommendations of this Committee to the Cabinet and the Parliament for broad discussion,” he said, making no reference to the Tamil political leadership’s continuing calls for a political solution in the new Constitution.

On the other hand, he appeared to equate ethnic reconciliation to development. “We regard government’s prime responsibility towards reconciliation as providing such facilities to these [war-affected] people without discrimination,” he said, urging parliamentarians representing the people of the north and east to “set aside various political ideologies, at least temporarily”, and support the government’s efforts to “improve the living conditions of the people in your areas”.

President Rajapaksa is yet to hold talks with the Tamil leadership or elected MPs since his election to office in November 2019. In June 2021, a meeting between the President and a TNA delegation was scheduled. However, Mr. Rajapaksa’s office cancelled the meeting and said a new date would be announced.

The Rajapaksas to blame for Sri Lanka’s disastrous 2021

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s 2019 election manifesto promised ‘Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour’. Professionals for a Better Future (Viyathmaga) were to implement his programs, which would achieve successive years of economic fortune. But Rajapaksa will instead be remembered for presiding over Sri Lanka’s worst-ever year post-independence.

2021 was a year that millions will associate with lengthy queues to purchase sugar, milk powder, kerosene and cooking gas. This is because prices skyrocketed to hitherto unseen levels, thanks mainly to a severely indebted island lacking dollars to pay for essential imports. The year ended with around 1500 shipping containers comprising essential items stuck at port because the government had not released dollars to pay for them.

Inflation in December was 12.1 per cent, having risen from 9.9 per cent in November, with food prices having more than doubled in the past year. The government exacerbated inflation by printing money willy-nilly — as much as Rs 69,100 crore (US$3.4 billion) in 2021. With the focus on the dollar crisis, inflation, and food queues, what is not sufficiently covered concerns those going hungry.

The regime was also linked to various scams that worsened conditions. One such scam centred on the propane and butane ratio in cooking gas cylinders, which caused numerous household explosions and killed and injured individuals. Another centred on contaminated fertiliser from China, which the government was forced to return yet pay US$6.7 million for, apparently due to corrupt procurement. In a country now infamous for impunity, no one was held responsible for corruption or incompetence.

Sri Lanka’s foreign currency inflow has long depended on remittances, tourism and specific exports like garments and tea. The COVID-19 pandemic, which has now killed over 15,000 people, was bound to trouble these sectors. While the government oversaw a relatively successful vaccination program, unsustainable debts plus arrogant and fatuous decision making landed the country where it is.

The nearly three decades-long civil war contributed to these debts, but so did ‘blingfrastructure’ projects former president Mahinda Rajapaksa and his Chinese partners initiated. Consequently, Sri Lanka must cough up around US$7 billion in 2022 to various creditors to service its debts, which between now and 2026 will amount to around US$26 billion. The possibility that Sri Lanka may, for the very first time, default on its obligations is the reason Fitch Ratings downgraded it in December. The move raised predictable government hackles, but it reflects the balance of payments crisis facing the island. While COVID-19 exacerbated the balance of payments crisis, debt financing was a pre-COVID-19 predicament.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s decision in April to ban chemical fertiliser was related to this dilemma. Doing so would eliminate US$400 million per year of government fertiliser subsidies. Vistas of Prosperity and Splendor promised an organic agricultural sector within ten years, but this hastily imposed policy negatively impacted farmers. They have since protested unceasingly against the government, joining teachers and others who are also demanding higher wages given the runaway cost of living. It now seems the rice shortage caused by the addle-brained decision to abruptly ban chemical fertiliser, weedicides, and herbicides will likely cost the government US$450 million in rice imports over the next few months.

Rajapaksa’s authoritarian reputation and Sinhalese Buddhist credentials made Tamils and Muslims fear for their future. The continued militarisation of the predominantly Tamil northeast and the ban against burials for those who died from COVID-19 — a policy that especially traumatised Muslims — confirmed their fears. Rajapaksa’s unwillingness to fully investigate the 2019 Easter Sunday Islamist bombings that killed around 270 people, allegedly because forces close to him helped orchestrate the event to promote his election prospects, has also estranged the Christians who voted for him in large numbers.

This and his attentiveness to Buddhist interests aside, the country has thus far not experienced anti-minority violence. Indeed, the difficulties stemming from COVID-19 may have tamed the regime’s rabid majoritarianism. But this was not enough for Sri Lanka to be invited to US President Joe Biden’s Summit for Democracy. Some think cosying up to China, especially under presidents Mahinda and Gotabaya Rajapaksa, was the reason why. In any case, the pro-China tilt took place amid rampant corruption, increased authoritarianism and an unwillingness to account for human rights violations — major themes undergirding the democracy summit.

The Rajapaksa government is slated to announce a new constitution, which will further strengthen the island’s Sinhalese Buddhist character and presidential powers. The government and its allies command a two-thirds parliamentary majority, but today even cabinet ministers excoriate the regime while allies threaten to desert it. At the same time, Rajapaksa effigies are hit during protests and family members are booed in public.

Even government officials now warn of impending food shortages. Overall, the country’s multiple crises cannot be addressed unless the economy is restructured and embraces a more pluralist climate. Those with vested interests, including the Rajapaksa family, find this threatening. Hopelessness is why some ask the military to take over.

Sri Lanka’s military enjoys status and resources, with many retired and serving officers currently benefitting from sinecures. It is unlikely these individuals want to undermine their positions by taking on a debilitated state. They are more likely to further militarisation under Rajapaksa rule, which does not bode well for democracy.

The Rajapaksa family wants to stay in power and build a political dynasty. Their corrupt governance is a major reason for the island’s recent democratic backsliding. On the other hand, various anti-government protests highlight the island’s democratic resilience. This simultaneous fortitude and retreat notwithstanding, the year ahead may see Sri Lanka mired in violence and militarised autocracy. If so, it will be another year of disasters.

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